Here's a housing inventory update -- the statistics are from Virginia MLS. It begins in March 2005 and ends on May 16, 2012. Available May inventory down from last year. These inventory numbers do not account for the sales rate, so they are quite rough, but they do have a connection to price movements in our area.
Here's the link to the whole spreadsheet.
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Northern Virginia Housing Inventory Update
Posted by Harriet at 10:23 AM
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Looks as if inventory is rising more rapidly in FFX Co. than in the closer in and farther out areas. Or, it may just be noise.
seems like noise to me. We'd need a couple more months to identify a trend. Looking back over the years, the relative increase is still smaller month to month this year than recent previous years.
"Harriet said...These inventory numbers do not account for the sales rate, so they are quite rough, but they do have a connection to price movements in our area."
That is (or perhaps should be) one of the first things we all pay more attention to in terms of how far along we are with this thing, especially since high levels of MOI often corresponded with high amounts of overall inventory. Here is that same info in graph form:
http://www.recharts.com/nova/nova.html
In the early days (05-06) when some permabull would tell us that everything was going to be fine, some wise, moderate bear would point to this and say (in sum) ITS THE INVENTORY STUPID!!!
And they had a point too. Watching inventory rocket up to 20-25K houses for sale in NoVa...yeah, it was a big volatile powder keg which could explode (and did in some of the exurbs).
At the same token however, in early 09 & beyond when you still had people here screaming, using hyperbolic language about a "stampede" of this or another "meltdown" of that, all one had to do was point to the lack of inventory and say, "wheres the fuel"? How can you have a "meltdown" when there is nothing really left to melt-down?
Sure, since 09, prices could move a bit lower (or higher as they have), but once the inventory was gone, anyone who was expecting more fireworks was going to be bitterly dissapointed. Since then, the market has been as exciting to watch as paint dry.
So, post 09 if you were here to discuss the nuances of the market, or strategies for buying or whatnot, then stick around, share and learn. Yet, if you were here to see fireworks, shows over folks... go home...
http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/may/17/defense-contractors-eye-cuts-to-jobs-plants/
1 million jobs will be lost directly by contractors and indirectly by subcontractors and others companies in the cascade of consequences resulting from plant closures and mass layoffs
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/where-we-live/post/april-home-prices-rise-in-prince-georges-county/2012/05/21/gIQALb1IgU_blog.html?hpid=z5 i said a long time back that PG was pretty good deals, it had lost all the bubble and some and overshot.
daily inventory seems to be back...
http://www.virginiamls.com/charts/index.htm
Anyone else getting letters from people wanting to buy their house?
not me, but I notice that for sale signs aren't lasting long in 22153/22039 for single family mcmansions.
On another note, out of curiosity I wanted to know what the Japanese are paying for 5 year ARMS...ready?
1.55%
http://www.shinseibank.com/english/housing/loan_kinri.pdf
I wonder if I could refi in Yen :-)
http://franklymls.com/DC7813639
heres one the banks ruined entirely.
I'm feeling pretty optomistic these days. I saw a bad situation happening since 2003 and the actual collapse beginning in mid 2005. What I bought from late 2008 to present is up; in some cases 60%.
Is there any question that prices have bottomed? In fact, in most regions of DC, we are well past bottom.
Perhaps Contrarian or Pat can enlighten us.
Inventory, lower than last year, continues trending down.
What event will cause calamity?
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