Northern Virginia's March 2012 housing sales were down .9% YoY, and median prices were up 10.4% to $365,000. The average days on the market was flat at 69 days.
(The above statistics include Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Fauquier County, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County).
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Northern Virginia's March Housing Sales
Posted by Harriet at 12:02 AM
Labels: Housing Sales MRIS
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99 comments:
Active listings 3/12 vs 3/11
DOWN 11.82%
Ahh, time for another bear beatdown. And look! Median prices hit a new all time high for Arlington!
I love it...
While it's obvious prices have moved up across the board in NOVA, I think one of the reasons for the higher median price is that some of the McMansions are beginning to move. Owners have finally set their asking price to more reasonable levels.
Joe S,
If you click on the link to download the Arlington report (for example), you'll see that only 10 out of the 194 sold units in March 2012 were detached houses over $1 mill. (the price range of Arlington McMansions, except a few in 22204). So McMansions probably don't account for the median change there. Changes in zip code or condo/SFH mix are probably bigger factors. You could probably find the data on the web to check this out.
You can also do Fairfax, Alexandria City, etc., comparisons if interested.
Volume continues decreasing.
given the warm weather, shouldn't volume be increasing?
Median up 7.7% in Fairfax County. Sure, it's just the mix. Same on the way down?
Pat,
I think (as many others do) that the primary reason inventory is low is that fewer people than typical for this time of year want to sell right now.
VA-I,
I don't follow Fairfax Co., so I have no idea what role mix changes play there. But I know they are important in Arlington from watching the county and zip code data (not just anecdotes) over several years and finding that mix often accounted in large part for price variations. Notice also that I did not say (in response to Joe S) that mix changes FULLY accounted for even for the Arlington price increase, because I didn't compare it to a prior period data. I said they are probably bigger factors than the sale of McMansions in March.
You can probably find my posts here about mix changes as documented in two or more period time comparisons, at various times in the past, if interested. It's not really a matter of opinion but of looking at the data.
What does "mix changes" mean?
TIA!
Sehr,
Let's say in March 2011, 45% of the sales in Arlington were condo sales and 55% were single family home sales. Condos sell on average for at least $200K less than to SFHs in Arlington. If in March 2012, only 30% of the sales were condos (I am making up all these #s just for illustrative purposes) you would expect the median price for the county to be much higher in 2012 than for the same month in 2011, even if the actual price per comparable unit did not increase.
Here's another example. Homes in 22204 tend to sell for lower prices than do homes in 22207. If in March 2011, a much higher proportion of homes sold in 22204 than in 22207, but the reverse were true in March 2012, ceteris paribus, then you would expect the March 2012 median price to be higher even if the actual price per comparable unit did not increase.
From the Arlington detailed report for March 2012:
3/12 3/11 % chg
Attached Units Sold 114 134 -14.93%
Detached Units Sold 80 60 33.33%
Since detached units sell for much more than do attached units (mean data below--they didn't include the median data for 2011 in the report), the mix accounts for at least some of apparent price increase:
Avg sold prices - 2012, 2011, % diff
Att $454,986 $467,633 -2.70%
Det $703,388 $729,408 -3.57%
When prices were falling off a cliff, did no one notice which neighborhoods were affected? And why certain areas/nabes/developments got creamed? I was on David's blog since the fall (no pun) of 2006. I'll just pat myself on the back. It was all so rational.
Now I see tenants leaving to buy. I watch inventory as I did in 2005. I watch unemployment and local job creation. I watch the pipeline. As I've always qualified my remarks - this is my opinion only and it does not reflect a shock to the economy or a catastrophic event (in which case, I'd be dead anyway).
"pat said...
Volume continues decreasing.
given the warm weather, shouldn't volume be increasing?"
As was explained to you multiple times, volume does not always preceed price increases. During the prior downturn, volume continued to decline for 4 years after prices bottomed. So if history is any guide, we have another year or two of flat to declining volume before there is any chance that it picks up.
You would know this if you werent so hysterically fixated on all that "local peak" nonsense you spouted off 12-18 months ago.
Ace,
Thanks for the explanation. I always wondered about increases in avg price and the type of home that sold. People don't qualify that with other info usually to help people understand what is really going on in an area.
Sold for more than asking in the opening weekend. I like the kitchen floorplan.
AR7775087
My $0.02
mytwocents,
I remember talking about this listing a few months ago. Just goes to show, homes in Arl with well-done renovations sell fast.
I am beginning to see why... just finished a medium-sized remodel myself (full basement reno - added bath and moved laundry), it was a pain in the butt!
mytwocents,
Ah yes, the house with the beautiful landscaping and immaculate garage!
Jewel, congrats on finishing. My neighbor, who likes DIYing, after finishing his (small) basement, said he now understands why contractors charge so much for basements. PITA!
Ace,
Thanks! My husband will divorce me if threaten to do any more remodeling projects ;-)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/barry-ritholtz-on-investing-house-prices-are-down-mortgage-rates-are-low-but-is-the-real-estate-market-ready-to-rebound/2012/04/05/gIQAnveZzS_story.html
Has anyone checked out the new Trulia Price Monitor? They claim to be 2 months more current than CS.
if the Trulia monitor is anything like Zilow it's crap.
Zillow is at best useful for trend data,
no more.
Pat-
I and I think a lot of people on hear agree that Zillow is not good at predicting your houses value, because it can't know what is inside. I do think it is very good at having timely updates on trends.
Zillow is also very good for saying the value of condo's in large buildings where all the units are identical. Although this is not overly valuable, because a quick search for sold units tells you the same thing
VA_I or anyone else who may have done a kitchen remodel,
Any thoughts on how much kitchen cabinets should run? So far I think I have seen the two extremes:
Graber - custom cabinets, Amish-style family business marketing. Their quote, including cabinets, delivery, and taxes only, ~$21k.
On the other end of the spectrum, there are online companies that will ship you whatever cabinet style/size you specify unbuilt for about $2500.
So, if I go with the latter, I could order a complete set, practice putting them together and trash it. Then order a second set, practice putting them together, and practice installing them, then trash them. Then order a third set, practice putting them together a third time, and then do a final install and still be less than half of the custom Graber cabinets.
Hmmm...
My $0.02
mtc,
Cabinet quality depends on the market value of the home. You want to be in-line with your neighbors. On my rentals and flips, I go with off the shelf maple, etc at Lowes or Home Depot. On some of my personal residences, I have gone with Merrilat - also thru Home Depot. It's very easy to get a 10% coupon from HD.
One time, I ordered 11K worth of materials and opened a HD credit account for 10% off and got ahold of a 10% off coupon.
Personally, I think Merrilat is fine for anything under 1 million.
VA_I,
Thanks for the info.
The house I posted higher up in this thread is in my neighborhood. Seems stuff goes for $500-800k depending on additions and the lot size and what not. I'm sure there are a few tear down/McMansions going for just over $1 million.
The house posted also has a gorgeous kitchen that I hope to emulate somewhat.
I can easily see myself in this home for another 5-10 years. I just don't want to go overboard.
Thanks!
My $0.02
mtc,
Probably best to go look at different cabs/price points and get what you like - within reason!
I had some kichen designer at my last house (value 350K, at the time), tell me the cabs alone would be 40K. Is he nuts or am I nuts. I got beautiful hickory mellilat at HD for about 4 or 5K. And, so many compliments on my new kitchen! A few years ago I put merrilat in a mil $$$ condo in FL. I have the original cherry merrilat in my present home. It was fairly high-end construction when built in 1992.
I remember my parents getting "wood-mode", which is a step up.
Some price points require sub-zero, wolfe, bosch, etc. Most do not unless it's just a personal desire.
mytwocents, is your kitchen shaped in such a way that standard size cabinets will fit without customization? If so, you can get medium to high quality cabinets for a lower price. If not, you'll have to pay extra for custom work or have to spend extra time yourself (and with the friends who will help you), and will need the right tools, etc.
Re: the appliance lines that VA-I mentioned, I highly recommend looking at the ConsumerReports.org ratings for specific model of interest. In many cases the price has nothing to do with the quality of performance, features, and reliability. Bosch dishwashers tend to fare well in the ratings (and they are relatively expensive) but IIRC, SubZero, Wolf, and some other lines tend to be much more expensive but rate much less well than some more mundane competitors.
Remember cabinets are basically boxes,
so you are paying a lot of money for air.
I'd recommend if you want really good cabinets cheap, look around see what's coming out of people's houses.
When I had to set up a little micro-kitchen I got great cabinets by picking through the cabinets someone was selling on craigslist when their wife wanted a kitchen redo.
Pat,
Heck, why not go check out who just bought a fridge and take the box to make your own....
People do what works for them.
sehr,
depends what kind of value engineer you are.
Now if you are Anon, just go buy the most luxurious cabinets you can. Amish craft built, custom cabinets with granite and stainless.
after all it's luxury and people pay top dollar for luxury.
Value doesn't matter when you live in 22207.
Pat-
Sometimes I think you mistake inexpensive/cheap with a good value. I could buy eat exclusively off the dollar menu at McDonald's and my that would be much cheaper than my current food costs, but that doesn't mean its a good value. I would be much less happy and more stressed out.
I could also by a really old cheap car for a couple hundred dollars, but yet again it would make me less comfortable and happy. So in some cases it is worth spending more money to get what you want
HB
the best deal on a car is a 2-5 year old used car, lots of life left on it, but someone has paid the steepest prt of the depreciation curve.
now buying jalopies is IMHO silly, far too much trouble, I love a lightly used car but, i then dump it at 10 years before it becomes a maintainance headache.
Pat
Depends on the car. getting a new Prius is a better deal than used one if you look at cost per mile with any normal car life expectancy
"Pat said...Now if you are Anon, just go buy the most luxurious cabinets you can."
To the extent that I am not above an occasional troll, I cannot tell you how immensely satisfying it is to see how I have gotten to you. After a full week of no contact between us, you cannot help but lash out against me in anger and frustration.
It is rare that there is such manifest evidence of how deeply I now live inside your head. This is a precious gift, and I thank you for that...
My point about the mix is that if you are looking to past cycles for insight, you have to compare apples to apples. If the "mix" wasn't addressed in the 70's, 80's, 90's. etc., how do you throw it in there now?
Quite onbviously, the lower-end was hit the hardest by reo's and distress sales - necessarily over-stating overall price declines. New construction in the exurbs was also over-represented.
btw, I think contrarian has gone completely off-line due to security concerns.
"VAI said...btw, I think contrarian has gone completely off-line due to security concerns."
What do you mean? Security concerns, as in, he has some sort of clearance and is putting it at risk by posting here...
Or "security concerns" as in he is convinced the SHTF soon so he is now holed up in a bukner?
Anon,
My impression was general paranoia over people (ordinary, gov't., etc.) tracking everyone on the net.
Medication may be in order.
Ok. Folks are fighting over my rentals (not literally, but wanting to race to my house with a cashier check to rent something sight unseen). I had 4 appointments scheduled for Sunday. It's a 2/2 (nice) for $1,600. 2 of the 4 contacted me today about taking it without a viewing.
anytime people are racing and don't have a day or two to think it's a mistake
here's an interesting article
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1211412
it's a correlation betweeen median prices and interest rates.
" From this information we can conclusively say that higher interest rates decrease the price of homes and low interest rates increase the price of homes."
"pat said...
here's an interesting article"
It isnt an article, but yet another example opinion (of a poster named EconPete) stated as fact.
Rightfully, many of the posters there ripped EconPete to shreds, showing how that his cherry picked data was nothing more than wisful thinking, and how he purposefully avoided the 80s where interest rates soared and so did prices.
What I found more interesting is that even there on Patrick.... a site where abject pessimism reigns supreme... not a single bear came to EconPete's defense.
Notice too how EconPete quickly ran away, thoroughly humiliated and embarassed by how little thought he put into his "article". It apparently came clear to him that he was wrong and no-one was going to buy his bullshit (except for you of course)...
As one poster put it best about EconPete:
"I'm sorry, your credibility just went into the dumpster...
Is that why you identify with him and post his nonsense here?
FWIW, another poster on that thread "fizbin" graphs all the data so the rest of you can see how little interest rates have to do with nominal prices.
I feel sorry for those guys in the 1980s who (like EconPete and Pat) wanted to believe that higher interest rates = lower prices.
From 1980-1983, as rates rose from 9% all the way to 18% they must have been licking their chops... Yet, imagine the horror they experenced as prices just continued to go higher and higher and higher.
So sad...
i believe the issue was real versus nominal interest rates.
if ou use nominal the data reduces to noise, if you use real, the correllation was sound through the 80's
BTW 30 years of data isn't unsound,
really, you need to do a multi-variate analysis correlating household income to prices to real interest rates.
Pat-
Correlation is not causation. The problem with the data is that there is a massive time bias. Basically for the last 30 years interest rates have fallen and housing prices have increased with inflation. Do you want me show you a graph of Krispy Kreme locations and housing prices. I promise it will show a strong correlation. They both went up a lot for 25 years and then went down some in the past 5-10 years.
As anon showed housing prices continued to increase as interest rates went up. You really need to learn the different between causation and correlation. Interest rates will not rise unless inflation picks up significantly. If this happens nominal prices will go up (although real prices may go down). The thing is people don't care about real prices since they bought based on nominal prices and locked in their financing.
If you are talking real rates, thats fine, and yes, I agree with you wholeheartedly that there is a connection. In fact, if you look back at the history of this blog, I think nearly everyone agrees that in real terms, there is a correlation.
The problem however, is that many people are thinking in nominal terms... When you hear some moron say, when rates rise, prices will "tank", he is thinking nominally. When he says home prices "drop 10 to 40%" he is thinking nominally. When he says, this will "put sellers in a world of hurt", he is thinking nominally.
Essentially, he is thinking that the house, now selling for 500K, will later sell for 400K, and thats not happening.
More than likely, what is really happening is real rates are moving at (say +10%) and nominal home prices rise (say +5%).
If so, that house that was 500K will later sell for 525K, but its presumably a better deal because real rates are +10.
Still, a house moving from 500K to 525K is not "tanking".
Put another way, suppose he said:
"Look at this idiot trying to sell his house for 500K. He sure is going to regret it when rates explode and I swoop in and buy it for 525K...Bwahahahahaha!!!!"
Doesnt make much sense now does it???
HB said... Interest rates will not rise unless inflation picks up significantly. If this happens nominal prices will go up (although real prices may go down). The thing is people don't care about real prices since they bought based on nominal prices and locked in their financing.
Bingo...
I like the kitchen layout (not necessarily the traditional look) on this one.
Yorktown Blvd.
I'm predicting it will sell quickly -- seems competitively priced and offers what a lot of buyers want. The major drawback seems to be the semi-busy street. Anyone else?
PS - just noticed that it has no basement (a big drawback for most buyers) but has an asking price $150K below what it sold for in 2007.
Wha' hoppen? Is the agent hoping to start a MAJOR bidding war?
yorktown,
i have no clue there, I haven't been following those areas at all.
Always struck me as a good way to lose your ass.
Anyone has any idea if interest rates are trending upwards or down in the next few days. Need a lock a jumbo rate for a 30 year fixed.
Anon-
They will likely be fairly flat, but in general follow the 10 year treasury (sometimes with a 1-2 day lag). Treasury rates have gone down the last few trading days and are down again today, so I would think tomorrow is probably a better day to lock in a rate than today, but can't give a further out estimate than this.
In addition the treasury rate has only been falling ~.03% each of these days so likely it will not be enough to have the rate fall 1/8th of a percent
rates
the mega trend has been rates down.
now will they go negative?
Will The Fed give you money for borrowing money?
that's certainly the far end of degenerate monetarism.
Degenerate Keynesism would pay people to dig holes and fill them in or to breka windows to fix them,
degenerate monetarism pays people to borrow money
so in general rates will keep going down, perhaps to zero, the only issue is if the Euro credit market locks up, who knows if funding will be available.
CS numbers are out and it looks like the DC region is at an almost 2 year low. Also note that last month was revised to a "down" month rather than an "up" month as originally reported in the media - just like all 3 months before that.
http://www.blytic.com/Player.aspx?key=26484&roottype=release&rootid=90
expect another seasonal bump and then
back into the valley of pain.
now will it fall back to 165 this year? depends how fast the Govt spending cuts whack in.
interesting
according to the Blytic analysis, the DC Low tier is retesting it's 2009 low.
http://www.blytic.com/Player.aspx?key=20375&roottype=release&rootid=90
167 now versus 162 in 09.
the middle tier is flat lining
177 vs 166 at the bottom
http://www.blytic.com/Player.aspx?key=20392&roottype=release&rootid=90
The High Tier is flat lined at a higher level 170 vs 180
http://www.blytic.com/Player.aspx?key=20409&roottype=release&rootid=90
DC home price index
http://www.blytic.com/Player.aspx?key=26485&roottype=release&rootid=90
169 at bottom, 179 now.
http://www.blytic.com/ReleaseView.aspx?releaseid=90&page=1&search=dc
now whats fascinating is the Seasonally adjusted DC numbers and the volume numbers,
according to the seasonally adjusted
we see almost a 50% reduction down to 126.
http://www.blytic.com/Player.aspx?key=20269&roottype=release&rootid=90
is this the CS-Index? or is this something else?
now vlume is in the gutter..
http://www.blytic.com/Player.aspx?key=20291&roottype=release&rootid=90
so, although it's pretty close to the 90's trend line, so, in that respect it's probably reflecting the must sell, must buy lines.
The people who really can't emotionally rent and the people who really have to sell now
So is one index including condos and the other just houses?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/04/real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent.html
real house prices and Rental yields back to 90's trend line.
it's not a bad time to get a rental.
I am interested in what geography is causing the fall in prices. The Tysons area has been super strong over the last couple of months. My neighborhood (new construction) has been steadily raising the prices on all the different models and they have still been selling at a quick pace.
I also have a couple of friends who have recently sold places. They both got several offers within a week. One of them bought the house during the first government subsidy period in late 2009 and was able to sell his house for 5% more than he bought it for.
I know this is anecdotal, but my guess is that prices are falling in MD and the ex-urbs.
Jeremy-
You also bought in Fairfax right? If so are you seeing the same thing that I am of houses moving quickly?
The numbers surprise me as well. Must be the mix:)
I'm seeing intense competition under 300K and quick sales in general. I only follow certain areas. The market still seems quite weak in Spotsylvania, King George, etc. I imagine it's weak in PWC. As for Loudoun, Sterling seems strong. I don't know about Leesburg. I'd have to believe that PG County is still in the toilet and all of Maryland lags in any recovery due to Judicial process for reo's.
I wish Frankly didn't combine active and UC properties as "available". When you subtract all the UC properties, the true availablity is very low. I like to take a quick look at certain areas "by zip" and it's tedious to hand count available properties.
My zip 20194
6 properties at 300K or less are available.
Of all properties, 55 are available.
At the height of "the mania" (2005), I recall a time when 8 properties, total, were available in my zip.
HB,
I only track my neighborhood anymore - really only houses within walking distance of mine. I am in 22124, technically Oakton but closer to the Fair Oaks Mall. I don't see much move quickly at all, but all the houses are well over $600k and most list way too high and try to wait it out. I have seen a couple that were for sale way back when I was looking sell recently, at huge discounts over their bubble asking price (ex: FX7748297). We got a similar deal when we bought, but now I think we didn't get a deal at all but instead just paid a fair market price. Maybe it was a deal at the time since others weren't capitulating yet.
I've seen two more delist after a few months, maybe they'll come back on the market again soon. I'm just glad we don't plan to sell for a long time, hopefully 25-30 years from now when we retire.
To be fair, now that I peruse FranklyMLS I see that a couple more have gone under contract in my neighborhood in 4 and 6 days respectively - so I don't really know what to think of the market right now. Just glad that I'm not in it anymore.
4 days
6 days
Good new blog:
Housingviews.com
S&P/CS housing news.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/money-power-wall-street/
there was some discussion a while ago on why Atlanta is still free-falling.
well apparently the Atlanta markets were the worst Subprime markets in the East, and apparently they are still trying to clean up the mess, so,
the market is still spiraling down there.
Jeremy, When did you buy? Do you believe you caught the bottom? Have prices been stagnant?
I bought at the end of 2010. I know it is after the official bottom, but higher-priced homes bottomed slower than average so maybe I was close for what I got. Our house was on the market for about 4 months, but during that time the asking price dropped about $130k. We got it for 25k under that. Maybe it would have sat for 500 days like the one I posted earlier, but I doubt it as we also toured that house and liked ours much better. I'm sure we could have waited and gotten a somewhat better price - but we had been looking for a long time and didn't want to let this one get away from us.
We did however get a great interest rate, which is what allowed us to move into this price range in the first place. Rates now are about 1/4 percent lower, and if they move much more I might refinance our mortgage already. That to me is crazy. I never thought we'd see rates below 4%.
Jeremy,
I've refied my house at least four times, but I always take a slightly higher rate than the "going" rate and a credit that covers all closing costs (except escrows, which are a wash).
Things are going under contract faster than others are hitting the market. Just no inventory where I'm looking and also noticing cheaper things go for more than they probably should, but only because of inventory levels, imho.
The Yorktown house I linked upthread is under contract.
Redfin says that Fairfax County has less than 2 months of inventory.
"Condo prices hit new crisis lows in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco"
Thats the April Headline
"Condo prices largely weaken in October"
That's the January headline.
Are there any indices for DC Condos?
I don't know about pricing (other than what I see) but Refin states that FX CTY condo inventory is at 1.2 or 1.3 months. This doesn't seem to correlate with falling prices.
c=heryl
unfortunately there is no C-S condo index for DC.
that's why i was asking?
i think condo's in general are bad deals, but, some people like them.
This article is based on San Francisco, but I figured I would post it because it is interesting and could be relevant to DC.
Due to low levels of new construction, rental prices are up ~15% since last year in San Francisco. I imagine this will cause CA housing prices to stabilize fairly quickly if not start going up. The buy/rent calculation starts favoring buying rather quickly if rental prices are increasing at double digit rates.
Hopefully some new apartment buildings are being made to help handle the rental demand. This would keep prices in check and CA construction workers could definitely use the work.
HB,
This is just a part of the cycle of things, ebb and flow. When we moved here in 1981, all the complexes around Tysons had waiting lists. We had to live in a hotel for 3 months. I recall the rental market being extremely tight in the early to mid 90's (I was a LL then).
Overbuilding to shortage, with a few years of balance sandwiched in the middle. The same applies to office, retail, hotel, etc. It takes a longtime to deliver new inventory, unlike other types of supply where the ramp-up and delivery time is much shorter.
San Francisco is a peninsula, so it' can only grow upwards and that's expensive with eqarthquakes around.
How are rents doing in the East Bay?
Anyone who got an ARM in the early 2000's has made out like a bandit. Has this impacted reo's?
"Anyone who got an ARM in the early 2000's has made out like a bandit."
of course thats just the Fed making war on savers.
drive consumption, make debt cheap,
shaft equity.
I enjoy the discussions here, so I thought I'd chime in. The area around Springfield/Franconia may be shaping up to become a neo-Tysons Corner in that there is new office construction in support of the NGA's 9,500 GS13 and higher fed jobs and in 2015, the Museum of the US Army will open at Belvoir North w/projected 500k annual visitors. This feels to me as though it will create a jobs/tourism anchor to rival Tysons. Also, 22039/Fairfax Station reminds me of Great Falls/McClean. Anybody else following this?
Ace,
RE: Yorktown Blvd
Sorry, don't follow that part of North Arlington too closely. The outside is very blah, but I am pleasantly surprised by that 2-story living room. Did not expect that at all. Not a big fan of the brown tile in the master bathroom.
Our favorite overpriced rambler has been reduced by a whopping $50k!
da551d-
I think those projects are good for Springfield, but will not get it to anywhere near the size of Tysons. Tysons is a lot bigger than you think and growing faster than Springfield even counting the big projects you mentioned. Depending on how you define Tysons between 100-200K people already work there making it the 12th biggest business district in the country It is also expected to double in size by 2030.
Jewel, I agree that brown tile was ugly, but then, I generally don't like dark tile anywhere.
Ha! and thanks for the update about our favorite rambler. $75K down (since listing), many more $ to go before a buyer is going to be interested...
The market is crazy! Multiple offers, agents collecting contracts for 5-7 days before presentation. How long will this last? Will we get close to 2005 pricing? I don't think so (within the next 3 yrs), but I'm seeing 2004.
VA-
I agree that things are pretty crazy out there right now. I don't think we will see 05-06 pricing because I think banks and people are more smarter than they were back then, but I see cheaper houses in your area doing well. I think more expensive houses will have more muted movement.
Interesting marketing ploy I got in the mail yesterday from a realtor...
"Dear sir:
In the past few weeks i've had multiple offers and unprecedented interest on the 4 town houses I just sold in a two block radius of your home. Buyers who didnt get these homes are desperately trying to find a good home to buy.
The problem is there just isn't enough inventory on the market to satisfy this unusually high demand.
My buyers are willing to pay between $700,000 to $900,000 depending on features and living square feet.
So if you are considering selling, please call me!"
7-900k for townhouses? What zip code is this in?
da55id-
I am not sure where Anon is, but many areas in Arlington, Tysons, DC, etc... have townhouses in this price range.
HB,
You are correct. I mainly follow the lower end (under 300K). Moderately expensive homes (700K to 1,000,000) in my area are not moving very quickly.
i've seen million dollar town houses in rosslyn. Gorgeous, but still madness.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/fewer-americans-form-households-after-recession-hampering-economic-recovery/2012/04/30/gIQAO6vYsT_story.html?hpid=z4
household formation slowdown harms recovery. If this sort of thing becomes structural, what happens?
http://franklymls.com/DC7628245
now this was a inside deal, DOM 0 days, it's been vacant for years,
failed short sale, finally moves on
a secret buyer for 150.
But I love the comments.
"Needs a little TLC to make it shine."
Pat-
Even if it becomes a structural thing the weak recovery will take slightly longer, before we get back to full employment. Even with weak household formation the population is growing quick enough that we are adding far more households than we are adding new houses. This was necessary to work off the excess construction. We are getting pretty close to having supply and demand equal. So I think we will see the housing construction numbers increase 20+%/year for the next 4-5 years. After this housing formation and housing construction will roughly be in line.
Some of the builders (Toll, etc.) are up 50+% over the past 6 months. Forward indicator?
I think any current "madness" is very much influenced by price. I agree with those who see more activity in the lower ranges.
In addition, I see few homes in higher price ranges for sale near us--very low inventory for at least a year. Those that are priced well relative to the competition are sold quickly. On the other hand, a recent Realtor's newsletter reported that 8 (IIRC) were pulled from the market last quarter, unsold. Obviously, buyers are NOT so frenzied that they will buy anything at any price.
certainly with 5 years of restricted new house construction, we have helped bring the supply back in line, we've gone from insane levels of inventory to better levels.
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