Here's an inventory update -- the statistics are from Virginia MLS. It begins in March 2005 and ends on February 1, 2012. Available February inventory is the lowest in six years.
Here's the link to the whole spreadsheet.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Northern Virginia Inventory Update
Posted by Harriet at 5:35 PM
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84 comments:
http://franklymls.com/AR7594686Here's
a cute little short sale.
http://franklymls.com/AR7622917
Heres that median buyer for you.
Bought in 2004, for 443K, trying to sell for mid 400's....
SUbtract 10% in transaction costs, and well, that's been luxury living at it's finest.
http://franklymls.com/AR7751556
Here's a great one for Anon.
seems like lots of value here.
I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don’t know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.
In response to Va_Investor, who asked, "Mike, [a]re you sticking with the article you posted? I assume that you adopted that position as you posted it without comment/analysis."
Truth be told, I didn't read the article very closely. I’ve been pretty busy lately. Sometimes I post articles just for discussion purposes. Anytime I read "never" or "100%" I'm automatically very, very skeptical.
I do think that, all things being equal, houses in NoVa are not great investments and will not cash-flow. I congratulate you on your stated return (although, I didn’t try to back-into or analyze the numbers you provided – I’ll accept them at face value). I wonder how much of your success can be attributed to timing, skill. I think the average NoVa homebuyer now definitely could not cash-flow. There are, of course, lifestyle reasons for buying in Arlington. Too often, though, real-estate cheerleaders conflate lifestyle with value or investment.
On a completely unrelated note, I will share my observations on the recent market activity in the areas I’ve been tracking (hereinafter, the “Market”). And, this is just me “calling them like I see them.” The Market seems really really hot. Houses with nice updates or even moderate updates seem to be flying-off the shelves.
Now, this is the beginning of the traditionally strong spring selling season. So, I’m doubtful that it will be sustained. I think some people have cabin-fever and are anxious to jump at anything approximating “updated.” Last last fall/winter, after all, had a disproportionate share of “uglies.” Interest rates are also ridiculously low, even in an environment of long-term ridiculously low interest rates. For some, the economic clouds may appear to be thinning. Anyway, it seems worth monitoring (and not just over the next couple of months, which I expect to be strong).
http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/22/real_estate/home_sales/index.htm?fb_ref=fbLike&fb_source=home_multiline
houses at 10 year low, nationwide.
now either reversion to mean occurs, or the peasant sall clap in cheer in their hovels as 22207 continues to benefit. Who can tell, the peasants of North Korea are all cheering the new Kim Jung Un and his palace.
You know, its interesting -- years ago on the bubble blogs, the bearish comment would be met with denigrating charges that the bears were just "envious" or "bitter".
I always disagreed assuming we bears understood that certain areas were going to remain unaffordable. And if so, we would simply buy elsewhere and get on with life. None of us were "bitter" as the bulls suggested.
Perhaps its time to revisit that assumption...
Pat,
Are you being sarcastic regarding your comments on AR7751556?
All,
An interesting listing came on the market a few days ago. I'm interested in getting everyone's take on the price. It's essentially a 1950's rambler (granted it appears to be expanded and nicely updated) on a busy street, and they're asking over 1.1 million for it.
It should have been listed for under a million. You can get a brand new home on a quiet street with way more square footage for that price.
I'm with you, Jewel. I would be stunned if the seller gets anywhere close to that for the reasons you gave.
Arl. Co. website says it is only 1616 square feet (on the main level) and it has no garage. I don't think it looks larger than that--the seller has simply added in the basement level square footage on the listing. The Co. values it only a bit over $700K. We all know that Arl. Co. doesn't incorporate upgrades, but it also doesn't discount for location on a very busy street.
He's clearly spent a lot of money on the improvements, but I don't like some of the choices (just as he wouldn't like mine). But the point is that not every potential buyer will pay for all of the changes he made due to taste differences. But these are less important than the bad location.
There are two HUGE houses (~5000 square feet including the basement as he does), both with basements, near there on Wash. Blvd. that sold, new, several years ago. One sold for more than he wants and the other for less, IIRC.
Here's my prediction: mid $900s at the highest.
Ace,
I agree on all your points.
The backyard is tiny too.
When I was house shopping a few years ago, I got hung up on spending less than 600k. It wasn't necessarily logical, it was just something about going over that scary 600k mark.
I can only imagine that crossing from 6 digit home prices into 7 digit home prices is even more scary.
This house should have been listed at $999k or less.
Jewel & Ace-
I don't know the area well enough to say weather the price is good or not, although I would say that this house which is a block away looks like a much worse deal to me house
At least the first house had a lot of expensive upgrades both inside and outside of the house. This house looks like it has been updated in 20-30 years.
Although when you look at the sales you don't see many houses in that price range that have sold.
HB,
That one looks overpriced to me, too.
Frankly shows it has been on the market 160 days, which is a long time to sit.
http://franklymls.com/AR7756767
At least it has a garage and isn't right on Wash. Blvd., but it probably gets a lot of noise from 66.
$1 mill. is a pretty strong market in No. Arl., with lots of potential buyers but not a lot of GOOD properties in that range, so if a listing is sitting, it's usually because it's overpriced.
HB/Ace,
Agreed, this one is definitely over-priced too. At least it has a .35 acre lot which is huge by Arlington standards.
Interesting insider question/answer session on all the dirty tricks and questionable business practices regarding home foreclosure auctions. Basically, this guy was paid to try to stifle the competition in any way possible.
I found it through patrick.net. The text is available here.
Jewel -- it does seem a bit overpriced to me, but I dont watch the market as closely as I used to.
Ace -- in that regard, while I dont watch the market as closely as you do, it seems to me that some of the more delusional immunozone sellers who (mostly) de-listed properties in 2011, are now back on the market in early 2012. Does this agree with your assessment?
I ask because its interesting, when going through the old blog posts, people would occasionally show houses for sale...and now that those sales are long since complete, its interesting to compare the sales prices vs posters comments at the time.
Some of our bears (JF and Kevin in particiular) would opine that a house was "overpriced", yet it often would often sell pretty much at that overpriced price.
However, unlike them (whose judgment was too bearish) if you would opine that a property was overpriced, more often than not, (a) the seller would capitulate, drop the price significantly, and it would sell or (b) the seller wouldnt budge and the house was de-listed.
In fact, its kinda uncanny in that your judgment that a place was overpriced was pretty much the "kiss of death" for the chances that a house would go for list.
So anyway, given that I trust your judgment, im curious if what you see matches with what I see (albeit I am not looking much these days)...
Jewel,
That thread was pretty much dead on. It's just like Storage Wars - only with wealthier people. There are a group of "regulars" that all know eachother. Some are friendly and some aren't. The poster did not have a well-rounded knowlege of the whole picture.
Been there, done that. And we do refer to ourselves as "vultures".
VA_Investor,
Do most bidders resort to breaking/entering and bribery? Seems a little extreme to me, granted I have little knowledge of the realities of this business.
Jewel,
I think this isn't too far from you: AR7775087
I thought the $699K price tag was a bit high but after the link you showed over on Washington Blvd I guess it's not totally insane. Though I still think that house is at least $200k over priced.
Anyhow, the house I linked to above is already under contract. Went on the market this past weekend.
My $0.02
mytwocents,
Yep, that is house is close to me.
Given that it has a garage addition, and has been updated - the price looks about right to me. Similarly updated homes in my area have been fetching high-600's.
A couple observations:
The ceiling fan in the living room looks out of place.
I didn't realize people put urinals in their bathroom?
That is the cleanest garage I have ever seen in my life.
Although I'm not a big fan of the "country kitchen" look - its very well laid out and makes good use of space.
Jewel,
That kitchen is awesome. I have the same basic house (minus the additions) and I've been wondering what the kitchen/dining room could look like without the wall separating them. I'm definitely encouraged by the layout in this house.
They steal about 2-3 feet from the dining room to do what they did. I may try to keep that to no more than 1-1.5 ft myself when I eventually renovate.
My $0.02
Hey, The Anon,
Thanks. Being called The Kiss of Death is the nicest thing anyone has said to me, since a fellow patient in our doctor's waiting room confused me with a cardiologist who turned out to be almost 20 years younger than me! :-)
In answer to your question, I haven't been watching the listings as closely recently, so I don't know. I think it's a great idea to track whether house predictions pan out, and use the info to adjust judgments about house value. Is there an easier way to do it than to bookmark and check frankly or Redfin regularly?
mytwocents and Jewel,
Love the landscaping on that house.
Now that The Anonymous has me going back to check frankly, the first thing I see is this.
Have you always wanted a McMansion that resembled a bunch of townhouses smashed together? Here's your dream come true:
ewww
jewel
I'm just pointing out that buying a luxury condo on the orange line ends up with very little appreciation, which makes it a tough investment.
add in transactional costs and the seller has basically paid a privelige to live there.
now if you meant the house, someone bought at 615K and is now trying to sell for a 100K less.
Anon thinks 22207 houses should all be premium luxury goods, so it should command a luxury price at 700K.
if it does, well, it's odd that it's going to foreclosure as opposed to a fast sale.
"Hey, The Anon,
Thanks. Being called The Kiss of Death is the nicest thing anyone has said to me, since a fellow patient in our doctor's waiting room confused me with a cardiologist who turned out to be almost 20 years younger than me! :-)"
What can I say? When it comes to pricing N. Arlington upper end, you really have a gift...
"pat said...
jewel
I'm just pointing out that buying a luxury condo on the orange line ends up with very little appreciation, which makes it a tough investment."
We all know this, and we all agree that N. Arlington is a terrible investment.
Yet, you keep bringing it up...Why?
So this is one those smaller footprint brick colonials. The kind that only has 2 bedrooms upstairs. AR7779593
My rationale back in 2009/2010 was that the nice 2 bedroom condos were still fetching 400-500k. So, a small house that approximates the space, yet adds single family home privacy and a yard, should at least keep pace - even if it's not right on top of a metro stop.
I still value this type of house around $475k. Maybe as high as $525k if it has well done updates.
My $0.02
Ace,
I know you don't like my fuzzy math but this is an example of a property whose price, I believe, is supported by the likely rent.
AR7688522
At 4.25% interest, assuming 1% in annual property taxes, a 30 year fixed mortgage works out to $575 per month for every $100k. So even with no down payment this is approx 5*$575 = $2875 per month. At $800 a person for a 4 bedroom house, you're looking at $3200/month in rent.
I know there's risk of more expenses as the owner but, again, I'm only looking at first order approximations.
My $0.02
Jewel,
I'd be interested to see what this house goes for. Not quite as nicely landscaped as the one I posted the other day. Of course, it has a more practical yard for daily use (isn't on a corner and a hill).
It lacks the garage, the room above the garage, 1.5 baths, and a much nicer finished basement and kitchen.
I think this house is overpriced at $549K but we shall see.
My $0.02
mytwocents,
I think 136 Park street will go fairly quick. It's nicely updated and has neutral paint/decor.
If the next buyer adds a 2nd full bath and a larger patio/deck - I think the home value would go up quite a bit.
My only concerns are the proximity to route 50 and the shopping center.
Jewel,
I agree, the house has a chance to go fairly quickly. It's not unreasonably priced for the neighborhood. I just personally think it's a bit overpriced. Of course, I'm happy to see comps grow!
My $0.02
mytwocents,
I think 5800 15TH ST N is a harder sell than the house on park street.
The curb appeal is good, but the interior is somewhat outdated.
The slope in the backyard and the proximity to 66 are both bad points.
I think this one should have been listed under $500k. Clearly, they've had problems selling it in the past.
Jewel,
I also think that the 5800 house is a good example that prices have moderated even in North Arlington. I know back in 2009 when I was looking this smaller footprint colonial style was being listed at a minimum of $549K and sometimes as high as $599K. I did see a neglected one listed at $525K.
Even though the numbers may not have "plummeted" as some bears would desire, there has been a real reset of expectations in my opinion.
My $0.02
VA_Investor,
Could you offer the renter some money (let's say $50) to let you look around?
Although as a woman, I would be hesitant to be alone in random people's houses with a stranger...
I think the 15th Street house is a tear-down candidate.
I wonder what the current market is for tear-down properties now, compared to several years ago? I would think there are still buyers interested in well-located new houses. But one developer once told me that in No. Arl., it typically doesn't make financial sense to put anything smaller than a huge house, to sell for $1.3+ on the lots, due to high land prices. I'm not sure how many people still need/want those and are willing to pay that much.
Of course, I don't know what part of that is profit. If $200K or more was the typical profit on that type of construction during the boom years, and if demand has slowed, then the builder now may be happy to build a smaller house with a lower margin, just to keep busy.
The Anon,
I don't think it's a gift--anyone can do it if they aren't too stubborn to learn from new info.
jewel,
The thought crossed my mind. He wasn't there alone, so it would probably be safe. He was reluctant to even tell me anything. He did tell me that the floors need to be refinished. I thought to myself that these people must be wrecking the place if 6yr old floors need refinishing. Mine are 20yrs old and look brand new.
The garage looked like a garbage dump. 3 car garage full of junk. I'd bet these tenants leave the place a mess. My carpets are 10yrs old and look pretty new (except for the FR that my dog has decided is the place to relieve himself).
The tenant seemed "put out". I'd bet he hasn't paid rent in months.
The Anon.,
Here's an example of exactly what you were talking about:
like a bad penny
Auction update:
I was going back and forth with one person (I believe). The bid increment was 1k. He/she "jumped the bid" several times by 30 or 40K. It's a bidding tactic to scare others off.
Anyway, their last bid jump was 40K and the bid is now up to 500K. There is a bidder's premium of 5%, so we are at 525K. The tax assessment is 675K and comps have been going for assess or slightly higher. My guesstimate is 40K in upgrades/improvements. So you'd be at 565K. Costs of acquisition, holding and sale are probably 10%. So a sale sale price of 700k nets 630K. I'm not spending 550-600K to make 65K. Simple as that.
There is a ton of inventory in this price range in Loudoun. I just helped a friend get a terrific short for 609K with comps at 725-750K. It looks like a model and has at least 70K in landscape/hardscape. Plus, he got an inspection, etc. Which is the better choice?
I might take this other bidder up a little higher (just for fun) but I don't want to get stuck with it. I don't think he has been out there or the tenant would have told me. I'm not taking the tenant's words (as to the condition) as truth but from what I saw, he is probably being honest. He was following the bidding and I asked if he was bidding. He said no way he wants this piece of junk. Now I take this with a large grain of salt. He may have a friend buying it or a deal with another investor and wants to make the place seem horrible.
In any event, the auction site says that this house was previously valued at 925K. Someone who has not done their homework may believe that this is a steal at 550 or 600K. The comps are misleading because it is a different builder than the rest of the neighborhood and this is quite apparent from a drive out there.
The better buy, that is in the same auction, is an all brick 4,000 sq ft+ home on Kirby Road in McLean. It, too, is only a few years old. The current bid is about 700K. The assessment is 1.2mil and it's an attractive house. It would probably make a great buy for an owner-occ.
530K for the Ashburn House
880K for the McLean House
plus a 5% buyer's premium.
Jewel,
Compare this listing to the Wash. Blvd. listing you posted earlier.
It is MUCH larger, but is listed for just a smidge over its assessed value and about $70K over that of the house you posted. The first listing is on the market for hundreds of thousands over its assessment.
The house was built in 2005 so it's only slightly less "updated" (if at all) than the first listing. It has a two car garage and is about a mile farther from DC, but much closer to a metro, than the first listing, so those factors may offset each other.
And it's been sitting a long, long time.
Wash. Blvd. #2
Ace,
Besides the price, the biggest two problems I see are the pipe stream lot and the fact that its on Washington Blvd.
I don't pay close attention to the upper-end market, but these seem like 2 major deal breakers for most people in that price range.
What do you make of this similarly priced listing? I'm surprised it went under contract in 1 day! It doesn't look like anything has been updated since 1995, the year it was built.
mytwocents,
AR7775087 went under contract a few days ago. Looks like it was priced appropriately.
Jewel,
I saw that. Got the update from Franklymls on Thursday I think. In retrospect, after our discussion that the Park St house was priced well, $150k more for an extra 1.5 bathrooms, an extra room, a garage, and a very nicely updated basement and kitchen seemed like a really good deal.
My $0.02
yhe blog has a lot of content today...
Jewel,
"Ace,
Besides the price, the biggest two problems I see are the pipe stream lot and the fact that its on Washington Blvd.
I don't pay close attention to the upper-end market, but these seem like 2 major deal breakers for most people in that price range."
IMHO, they do reduce the # of willing buyers, and the price, but what I've learned is that there is always a buyer at the right price. For example, you may have a house that would sell on a desirable street for $1.25 mill. If it's on Wash. Blvd., someone will settle for the crummy location, even in that price range, but he/she will pay a lot less. In other words, there are some who will trade location to get the big space, nice updates or amenities, etc.
"What do you make of this similarly priced listing? I'm surprised it went under contract in 1 day! It doesn't look like anything has been updated since 1995, the year it was built."
If you look at franklymls, you'll see it is another of the The Anon. specials, on the mkt. last year at a much higher price, didn't sell, and came back. Also, note that it has a contingent, kickout offer. This probably means that the buyers have a home to sell first. Sellers hate this type of contract. We can speculate about what was going on to lead to this situation (seemingly immediate contract at a lower price than last year but that seems to you to be too high). But the current KO status means that the house may not sell at the listed price. If they can't close with these buyers, the sellers may have to drop the price further.
Jewel,
ps, re: the Wash. Blvd. house I posted, my main point, in case it wasn't clear, was not that it was such a great house or great deal (or not), but rather that it showed you were right (IMHO) about the delusional price on the first Wash. Blvd. house, which you posted. The 2nd house seem to have similar or better characteristics to the first, AND was much, much bigger. So, if the 2nd hadn't sold in all this time at a slightly higher asking prcie, the little new listing is very likely to sit or post significant price drops.
Anyone want to hear about my flip and my lastest deal? I'll probably have to call pat. An agent friend told me he wrote 7 contracts this weekend. The buyer's are out. btw, I thought that 699K (?) house in Arl would go asap. I loved the porch.
VA-I,
I'd like to hear more.
Ace,
Understood, and I agree that since the 2nd house on Wash Blvd hasn't sold yet is a good indication that the first one is overpriced.
Well, thank you Ace. None of my friends have the slightest interest in RE Investing so I have little opportunity to talk about what I am doing.
I closed on my short at 154K. It's a relatively new 2 level condo in Lorton. The most recent comp closed last week at 210K. My contractor is at work with a bid of 13K. This includes first level hardwoods, ceramic in kitchen and 2 and a half baths. New paint and carpet. New light fixtures and kitchen/bath hardware, faucets, mirrors, etc. New window blinds (faux wood 2" from Home Depot.
I am not doing granite. The comp has the formica (and mine is in perfect shape) and an appraiser will not add the 3K.
I expect to put it on the market in two weeks at 215K. I figure that I am "all-in" at 170K. I expect to get 215K with 15K in closing costs - this will net 30K.
It's been fun and given me something to do. I have a part-time assistant and it's nice to teach her the in's and out's.
On another note, I have something in the works today and I'll know something tomorrow. It's a very interesting situation.
In case anyone's interested, here are the two previous sales of huge houses on Wash. Blvd. that I had in mind when I made a prior post. Both were new builds - I thought the one at 6300 was interesting.
I had misremembered the sales price on one of them--it sold for the same price that the little rambler guy now wants.
6300 $1.25 mill. new build
6301 $1.125 mill. new build
VA_I,
Sounds as if you made a good deal--good luck on it. I am amazed at what your contractor is doing for $13K, but I understand that the volume of work he does for you makes him happy to work for a smaller margin. I agree that a buyer in that range probably won't pay for granite.
PS VA_I, you need to expand your (face-to-face) friend base! I am not an investor, but I know a couple of people like me who are real-estate obsessed, and we love to talk about just about any aspect of real estate, home improvements, etc.
Or maybe you could offer to be a guest lecturer for a class or two at GMU.
Ace,
I've been obsessed since I was 22. I almost bought a condo when I was 17. Can't help it. My mom had alot of investment properties and I spent my early years cleaning and painting apartments and going with her to look at new purchases. My dad was a small town lawyer and stayed out of the RE. Sounds like my situation.
I've bought and sold over a hundred places. I have 20 rentals running on auto-pilot so I need some other stuff to keep me entertained. I'd be happy to give my opinion/advice on any deal. Just remember; you sometimes get what you pay for.
Ace,
6300 Wash Blvd is so ugly! It looks like a row of townhouses too.
I much prefer 6301 Washington Blvd, but its on a corner lot and the materials in the baths (with the exception of the master) look cheap.
My basement renovation is almost complete. (And I am very happy because the timeline has doubled and haven't had a functioning washer/dryer in over 5 weeks) The tile work is finishing up, and the painting will be complete this week.
I have one more payment to make to my contractor once everything is done. I've been told by another homeowner that I should get signatures from all the subcontractors and make sure they've been paid. Obviously, I don't want any subs putting a lien on my house down the road.
Has anyone dealt with this before? How did you handle it?
Jewel,
Ask the GC to provide a "lien waiver" from all the subs. I, of course, have never done this (a lawyer who represents himself has a fool for a client!).
Jewel,
I have always just kept a copy of the original contract and the checks I made for payment once they cleared with my bank.
Of course, I've only worked with one general contractor that had to sub out the different portions of the job. My other projects have been smaller where the company I signed with did the actual work.
My $0.02
Thanks VA_Investor!
mytwocents,
I'm pretty sure the subs can put liens against your house in the state of VA even if you've paid the general contractor in full and have kept all paperwork/receipts.
That's why I will get a notarized statement from my GC stating that he's paid all the subs in full.
Warren Buffett on CNBC - "now is a great time to buy a house or more than one if you are handy (rentals).
Jewel,
It would seem you are correct. Though if I'm reading the interwebs correctly, in VA contractors must file a lien within 90 days of the last day of the month in which they performed work. So if it's been over 4 months since your last project, and no one has come knocking, you're probably okay. But this is good info to know for future projects.
My $0.02
Be careful. If one of them comes back to fix or finish something, the clock starts running again.
Is it now SOP to only get a notarized statement from the GC?
I don't know if getting the lien waiver notarized is SOP, just found some forms online that had a notary section.
Not the "notary", but the GC signing instead of the individual subs.
Hmm, the form I found had the GC certifying that he has paid all the subs in full.
Jewel, if your GC is so dishonest as to fail to pay subs after he has received full payment from you, wouldn't he also be likely to lie in the notarized statement? All the notary does is attest as to the GC's identity, right?
It seems to me that the only protection that an owner would have (other than the original contract, which also depends on the GC's honesty) would be the lien waiver directly from the subs, that VA_I recommends. I can understand the reluctance to go through the hassle of getting contacting all of them.
As Anon would know (as well as any other lawyers here) legal training makes one think, and protect against, worst case scenario. Bankrupt GC with worthless guarantee (?).
I just didn't know if this is SOP now and things have changed in the past 20yrs. If you were financing this reno, I'm quite sure your lender would require lien waiver's from subs in order to give "draws".
Ace and VA_Investor,
Good points. Couldn't he also lie and fail to give me all the sub's contact information? I know we had different people for drywall, plumbing, electrical, demo, framing, tile... but I wasn't here 24/7 to know exactly who came by. Let's say he only gives me the names for 5 out of 6 subs, and the sixth one didn't get paid.
We didn't use financing.
Jewel, as a non-lawyer, I guess that at the beginning of the contract, one could specify that, the homeowner would not give the general contractor the final portion of the payment, until he (or she) provided signed lien waivers from all of the subcontractors. That wouldn't help you now, since you are past that stage. And, I am not sure if GCs would agree to that, since that would require them to pay subs well before you gave them the final payment. I know they typically do expect to have to pay subs before they get all of their payment, and that is why many would-be GCs fail (because they don't have enough float to live on), but they may not want to agree to making all of these payments in advance.
Maybe I'm being over the top here, but regardless of the contract, you have every right to get lien waivers from the subs.
I trust my contractor and don't bother with this, but the lawyer in me says get them.
OT-
Regarding the Ohio school shooting. Why in the world do parents/grandparents have guns in the house? There was a time when my son was growing up that I actually asked his friends parents if there was a gun in the house.
Good God people.
" OT-
Regarding the Ohio school shooting. Why in the world do parents/grandparents have guns in the house? There was a time when my son was growing up that I actually asked his friends parents if there was a gun in the house.
Good God people."
Cheryl
Some of us are preparing for the zombie wars.
CS just came out and DC was down ~1.2%. The losses were spread out pretty evenly across the tiers. With low tier performing the best and the highest tier performing the worst.
It looks like they also lowered the last few months by ~1%. We are now down 1.6% YoY. I am sure some will argue we are now starting the huge downturn, but I would argue that we remain in the flat period that many of us predicted 2-3 years ago.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-the-housing-triple-dip-2012-2
Fairfax Co. tax assessments came out.
Here is a map by area, showing % increase/decline.
FFX
Ace-
Wow it was really flat basically across the board.
Ugh my assessment went up 19.3% :-(
I was really excited when I bought a brand new place and the assessment was a little over 20% less than what I paid, but it looks like they fixed the difference. Ohh well
Sorry, HB. I think FFX Co. adjusts your assessed value individually for the recent sales price. So your neighbors may be slightly affected by your purchase too, but I think you are the one who takes the most direct hit. I could be wrong about this - they could simply plug your sales data into their algorithm/regression.
I still think you and The Anon and Pat bought at a good time from a price perspective (obviously from a lifestyle perspective that is not for me to say!).
Here's an Arl. house that I think is a good deal for the price, as Arl. houses go. I predict it will go quickly at list or close to it, unless there is something weird that I'm not taking into account.
964 Lebanon
Ace-
I actually bought in a new development. So it was really absurd that they basically had all of the assessments 20% below the sales prices (they are selling 1-2 places/week so they should have plenty of data).
I thought there was a good chance the assessment was going to go up but I was still hoping...
Ace,
This one isn't nearly as nice as the home you posted but it just sold for $595k right around the corner. That would seem to definitely put in a price floor for the home you linked to.
$275k is a big delta though. I'd be interested as well to see how quickly it sells.
My $0.02
mytwocents,
That's good info. I do agree that the houses are vastly different - the first one is much larger and has lots of upgrades and a decent floor plan that would appeal to a lot of people - and it looks as if one could add an attached garage if desired.
Just to see if the current listing is priced high for the neighborhood, I checked out recent sales that Arl. Co. groups together with this one as a neighborhood. A house that is a bit larger than the current one, and IMHO not very attractive, went for just under $1 mill. It's several streets away:
1033 Montana
So maybe it's the ceiling, or near it.
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