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Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/1/2012
Posted by Harriet at 6:37 PM
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51 comments:
mytwocents,
I had to go to a store near the house on Lebanon today, so of course I had to swing past it.
http://franklymls.com/AR7782507
No offense to anyone here, but the street is not one of No. Arlington's best. Lots of the houses look a bit shabby, with peeling paint, rusty gutters, etc.; they could be rentals. Not terrible, but not as good as many competing streets. I think that could pull the value down a bit.
So (without having seen the house on the inside first-hand or knowing more), I would revise my estimate on the eventual sales price to the lower 800s.
Ace
I'm going to say, i just don't see the value in living anywhere for 800K
Pat, you probably go crazy when watching "selling New York" on HGTV, right?
Pat-
I assume part of the reason you don't see the value of living anywhere for 800K is because you don't have 800K. At some point if you have enough money that you are putting a lot into savings, buying all the stuff you want, donating a lot, and you still have enough left for an 800K house why wouldn't you buy it.
I would've expected to see more comment and analysis regarding DC's showing in the latest CS reports. I recall that November/December were bad months. I think I even posted about it at the time (for those capable of finding old posts). It was right aroud this time that the conforming loan limits decreased, only to be increased later (with new fees, etc.)
If I'm not mistaken, the CS is a 2-3 month average, right? If so, I'd expect January to be as bad as December's numbers, if not worse.
Mike-
I put up a quick comment saying it was down across all tiers although it still continues its two year trend of being roughly flat.
Also it is very normal for prices to fall in the winter. If you look at the seasonally adjusted index it looks significantly flatter. I think there are two reasons housing prices go down in the winter. There is less demand so prices truly do go down and I think the bigger thing is that people who sell their house in the winter rather than waiting are usually more desperate and the houses are likely in somewhat worse shape
So a bunch of things popped up in Frankly today.
This listing AR7725583 is the smaller colonial footprint. I think the price is in the right ballpark for this footprint of home but it is on a slightly busier street. It's looks kept up enough to fetch at least $400k. More likely $425k is the floor.
This one AR7712417 sold for $526k. Given it's a slightly larger footprint than the one above, that's probably the delta. Still on the high end for what I value these models at.
This one AR7663870 is much nicer than the one above, but it's on Wilson vs Patrick Henry. Both busy streets but Patrick Henry is the nicer street IMO. Commanded a bit more by selling for $535k. I'm a little leery of the price tag given the busy street but this is also on the high end of acceptable valuation in my opinion.
Shiny and new about 1 mile closer to metro. For the price tag, I'd rather have a SFH. The one discussed last week in Arlington Forest was the same price, similar in space, and not terribly far away from this one.
Finally, the price reduced condo at $510k and waiting. I still think the really nice 2 bedroom condos shouldn't get much more than $400k unless they're the cream of the crop. Penthouse, extra space, all the amenities etc. In my mind, these properties, which are fungible with apartments, should be equivalent in price to high end apartments. Anything more is a waste.
My $0.02
Ace,
I am by nature a Stoic and happy with a minamalist existence.
So, yeah a 800K house would never appeal to me.
actually core logic turned out a report stating 11 Million mortgages are still underwater.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/03/corelogic-111-million-us-properties.html
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-C4mA5wEdWOg/T0_FgT2jVUI/AAAAAAAAMR4/sIauFmYUqPQ/s1600/NegativeEquityQ42011.JPG
http://ycharts.com/indicators/case_shiller_home_price_index_washington_dc#series=type:indicator,id:case_shiller_home_price_index_washington_dc,calc:&zoom=10&startDate=&endDate=&format=real&recessions=false
for the long term miserable slog, we seem well on that path.
for the second leg down, it's hard to say.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/05/31/business/economy/case-shiller-index.html?ref=business#city/WDC
Where is contrarian? Do you think he would announce it if he bought? The reason I was wondering is that 2 homes on his desired street have closed in the past month or so. Another is UC in 0/0 days.
5 years, $1Million house, 0 payment
the five-bedroom, 4,900-square-foot manse along the Potomac River in Fort Washington.
In five years, they have never made a mortgage payment,
Pat-
I saw that article too. I like how the people try and claim that they really thought they were going to make payments. I find it hard to believe that in the 30 days between closing and the first mortgage payment the world fell apart that quickly. If I was the guy and had already been convicted of fraud I am not sure I would do a story about how I am doing every trick possible to delay a foreclosure.
I have to agree with you HB. This guy is a shameless crook. I hope he does get prosecuted. I wonder what he claimed for income and assets on that loan app.? Bank Fraud? On my house, the trustee told me it took 3 yrs to foreclose due to "serial bankruptcy filings".
i deleted a comment because i made a math error.
I'm sure Anon will no doubt bookmark that and either file it under "Deletions" or "Mistakes",
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/case-shiller-house-prices-fall-to-new.html
Calculated risk has a pretty good sumamry on the Case Shiller numbers.
The third graph will no doubt annoy Anonymous, with the DC Case-Shiller Index sliding again.
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/we-wish-like-hell-we-had-never-bought-voices-from-the-housing-crisis/253888/
voices from the housing crisis....
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/02/the-end-of-ownership-why-arent-young-people-buying-more-houses/253750/
Why young people aren't buying homes.
"Pat said...The third graph will no doubt annoy Anonymous, with the DC Case-Shiller Index sliding again."
True. I dont like being wrong, but I am. After all I predicted that DC case shiller would be falling -4.4% YOY by this point, but its only falling -1.6%
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2011/01/s-november-home-price-index.html
So yeah, thats annoying.
Of course, its probably nowhere near as annoying as predicting a certain neighborhood will drop -40% by 2012 only to see it rise +5% during that time. I cant imagine what that is like...
"Pat said...I'm sure Anon will no doubt bookmark that and either file it under "Deletions" or "Mistakes","
No, I wont. You know why? Its because you admitted your mistake.
Matter of fact, you made the mistake at 4:59 and corrected it a mere 2 minutes later. We all make mistakes after all. Thus to find it, admit it, and remedy it in 2 minutes time is commendable. Its a no harm no foul situation that is quickly forgotten, and never mentioned again.
Compare that to say, making a flippant comment about "no bidding wars...ever", and then defending that comment for months on end...no matter how illogical or foolish that position may seem.
Or say, giving people false hope of an impending -40% drop, and continuing to perpetuate that false hope for going on 3 years now. Its only on these occasions that I bookmark.
Now, compare these deplorable situations to what happened yesterday you made a mistake and then quickly admitted it. Its this sort of intellectual honesty on our blog that should be fostered and encouraged.
In all seriousness Pat, kudos to you. You did the right thing here. Thanks.
Any thoughts/comments on Delray?
VA_I,
Re: Del Ray, what specifically would you like opinions on?
In general, I view it as still transitioning to a greater extent than most people do. Mt. Vernon is very charming south of Arlandria, but there are still a lot of run-down or poorly maintained properties in parts of it. Some property crime issues in parts. Other parts are wonderful. When I looked at properties there, Realtors were consistent in saying "the farther from Rt. 1, the better." If Alexandria actually does put in a Potomac Yard metro stop, I think it will speed the transition, but that is years away, if it happens at all.
Ace,
This would be a flip. The comps are 460-520K. They are all on the same street and a couple blocks south of route one. It's a brick rowhouse. I was just wondering if Delray is still "cool". The DOM on the comps suggest quick sales. It's just off Monroe, less than a mile to the Braddock RD metro. I'm looking at low 300's.
yes. west. A couple houses north (east?) of Monroe. I think it's on Luray.
VA_I, I assume you mean west of Rt. 1 (Rt. 1 runs N/S). Is it west of Mt. Vernon? If so, and if the houses nearby look nice, sounds like a good deal.
I think Del Ray's still a popular area, but as I said earlier, my opinion is that it's still a mix and more a of risk than most other people think it is.
There are million $ houses on E Alexandria, a few blocks from Monroe. But these are mixed in with properties worth much less, including the row houses.
Braddock metro has public housing nearby. Again, you'll hear people say that this is not an issue.
You might want to check it out in person if you can and haven't already done so.
Luray is 3 streets south of Monroe. Monroe, Alexandria, and Luray all run east-west.
Mt Vernon and E. Luray.
I'm tying it up under a study period so I can take my contractor down. It's not mls. I've seen a few pictures.
OK, being right on the corner of Mt. Vernon (busy) would be less desirable than a bit farther away.
"
Of course, its probably nowhere near as annoying as predicting a certain neighborhood will drop -40% by 2012 only to see it rise +5% during that time. I cant imagine what that is like..."
doesn't bother me, I haven't lost any money there.
Unlike those 4 people I pointed out in 22207 going to foreclosure.
"Pat said...doesn't bother me, I haven't lost any money there."
If it doesnt bother you, why do you spend an inordinate amount of time here forcasting an immunozone calamity, and then defending that viewpoint at all costs?
If it didnt bother you, wouldnt the more rational response be something like "oh well, I guess I was wrong...I guess its not headed for a massive drop...doesnt bother me...whatever..." and then move on?
Anon
you seem much more invested in my forecast then I am.
As I spotted a pretty good deal in one of my target neighborhoods, i'm busy digesting it, and making it into a home. (Updated electrical, updated plumbing, new insulation)....
Now the future for 22207 I think cannot be bright. Reversion to mean, debt ridden students, all of which are choking off the flow of people climbing the property ladder.
Bernanke gave some testimony this week where he commented that his son is graduating med school with 400K in debt. Is that the kind of new doctor who goes out and then loads on a 800K house as well, after, investing a half a million into a practice?
The future is just not very bright for a lot of things, and, that's a big problem.
"pat said...
Anon
you seem much more invested in my forecast then I am."
Maybe so, and if thats the case, thats perhaps even more troubling.
Is it your normal habit to run around on blogs and stick your nose into something you know little about/nor care little about, yet nevertheless forecast a catyclismic price drop...and then defend that forecast to the bitter end?
Anon
its called the first amendment.
I also make opinions on stock prices for Appl and GM, i was viewing GM and F as buys in 08 and I view Appl as a short .
i view 22207 as overpriced and a short play.
anon views it as Faberge Eggs
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/baby-boomers-will-be-selling-their-homes-but-will-their-children-want-to-buy-them/2012/03/07/gIQAQ05ywR_blog.html?wprss=3Dlinkset
will GenY buy boomers houses?
Anon
I remember in 2005 briefing a staffer on the Housing Banking committee, and telling him "Dude, every alarm bell i have is ringing on the housing market, it's nuts and it's going to end badly for either the big banks or the small banks. If we are lucky we can stop it in the big banks"....
Anon
I remember in 2007 chatting with Barney frank and telling him "There is a fire raging on Wall Street and it's going to take down the system"
He didn't like hearing that at all.
So yes, it's my habit to shoot off on the housing market.
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1209883
"I wish'd i'd have defaulted years ago"
It's the story of a guy with a Florida Property. Been doing the slow bleed for years, and now he's in the full bleed out.
Sadly reminds me of that guy from Loudon with the condo's who posted here once this spring.
"pat said...
Anon
its called the first amendment."
Well we all know you have the right to speak. But the question I am getting at is when you are shooting off about housing, is whether you deserve to be listened to.
Take for example, the guy on the street wearing a sandwich board saying "prepare the end is near". Given that he says the same thing day in and day out for years, its obvious that he does not care about the accuracy of his prediction. Thus, its best for the rest of us to assume he is an imbecile, or a permabear, or deranged or whatever and ignore him. Its best not listen to him or any prediction he makes.
Now, unlike the sandwich board guy, here in the blogosphere you cant "see" if the speaker is deranged (or an imbecile, or a permabear or whatever), so its best to at least listen to them on the assumption they are here because they care about the accuracy of their predictions.
As such, we all listened to Contrarian at first. However, it soon became apparent he doesnt give a shit about giving accurate predictions, or accountability, or what we here on this site think of him. So we eventually figured out he was an inaccurate, incredible, sandwich board imbecile who we now all laugh at, or ignore.
Now on the flipside we have HB. After a few "bang on" predictions, he finally missed on one. When he did, he came out and admitted he was wrong...he really beat himself up about it too. It was thus very apparent he cared, and cared very much so about his accuracy -- about his credibility -- and our perception of him as someone to take seriously. Thus, given how forthcoming he was, we all still respect him, and listen to him today.
Now in your case, its still not entirely clear. Are you an intelligent, reasonable guy with sound judgment who just happens to be very very bearish at the time? Or are you a delusional permabear, who doenst care about giving accurate forecasts, and is best marginalized, ignored, and dismissed?
The jury will be out til the end of 2012, but the answer you gave us just now, that you really dont care about the accuracy of your predictions...that you have no qualms about shooting your mouth off without regard for whether it turns out being correct tells us alot about you Pat...and frankly its not good.
Perhaps its time you too get fitted for your sandwich board...
Anon
i have opinions and I don't hide my actions behind secrecy and vagueness.
It's hard to make forecasts because the world is dynamic. Suppose Geithner impounds every 401K in America so he can subsidize house prices through HAMP 3?
Is that predictable?
Is it predictable what Fed Interest Rate policy is?
We've been on ZIRP for 3 years.
Now on the Plus Side, This brilliance of Economics has lead to Gas at $4/Gal.
So what happens next? Does Bernanke step on teh brakes? Does he go charging forward into High Inflation?
meanwhile it's kind of follish to have your greatest asset tied up in 22207 Luxury goods.
"pat said...
Anon
i have opinions and I don't hide my actions behind secrecy and vagueness."
Thats fine. But again, why not be more like HB, be accountable and be deemed worthy of being listened to? When your predictions go belly up, why work so hard to avoid admitting the same, thereby flushing your credibility down the toilet like Contrarian?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
"Pat said...It's hard to make forecasts because the world is dynamic. Suppose Geithner impounds every 401K in America so he can subsidize house prices through HAMP 3?
Is that predictable?
Is it predictable what Fed Interest Rate policy is?
We've been on ZIRP for 3 years."
Putting aside the "predictability" of certain of these events, now that they have happened, how do they affect your 2009 predictions about the -40% drop in the immunozone by 2012?
Do you leave your 2009 forecast intact, or do you change it to reflect the facts around you?
anon
lets see what happens with the 12 selling season...
so far, its not doing particularly well.
its not caving but its the long slow miserable slog..
meanwhile anon never says what his expected yield on his luxury good is...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/student-loans-seen-as-potential-next-debt-bomb-for-us-economy/2012/03/05/gIQAM0iF4R_story.html
student loans a debt bomb....
how many of these kids will climb the property ladder to 22207?
or even a house?
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1208327
interesting, the i ran a chart for the DC area zip codes, soe zip codes were 700 and lots were 300+
"Pat said...meanwhile anon never says what his expected yield on his luxury good is..."
0 increase for 3-5 more years, then underperforming inflation by 1% for the next 10. If that happens, I will be ecstatic.
The back and forth between Anon and pat is not moving the ball. Pat's issue now no longer relates to price drops in N. Arl - only what he see's as the relative value vs. certain areas of DC.
Value (rent equivalent) has many nuances. I could rent some dirt cheap place in a sketch area and save money. But do I really want to be there? Life is short. Are my kids going to walk those streets and attend those schools?
It's my belief that the worst is over and has been for a few years. I was watching a show last night that I had never seen before. It was about bunkers and "preppers". Heck, I'd just rather live my life than be absorbed in the bunker frame of mind.
If one looks at housing as an expense, the numbers for 22207 don't look bad. Interest rates make these homes relatively affordable vis-a-vis rent. Everyone puts a different "value" on owning and only a portion of it relates to the "investment" analysis.
As one gets older and rises up in terms of income and assets, the "home" becomes less and less important as an "investment" and a component of net worth.
I've read that the younger generation won't be buying for various reasons. This is fine with me.
I have heard from two tenants in the past week that they are buying this summer. Both are late 20's married couples. Both have rented from me for over two years and have combined incomes of over 100K.
This is my unscientific survey of whether the younger generation is buying. Bummer....
"The back and forth between Anon and pat is not moving the ball."
Yeah... its pretty much more of a science experiment than anything else.
In the blogosphere, rule #1 appears to be it is much better to look stupid than it is to ever admit you are wrong. And, once you start down that path, there is no cost (to your online reputation, your credibility, etc) too high to pay to ever come clean. Its apperently far better to be known as an imbecile than someone who was once "wrong" in the blogosphere, and I find this fascinating.
As an analogy to pats "-40% drop in the immunozone" call, imagine this was a weather blog and after that freak snowstorm we had on Oct 31, pat came here, confidently predicting "historic snow in DC" this year.
As december, january and february brought us warm weather, you would think he would start backing off that prediction, scaling it back over time. Yet since doing so would violate blogosphere rule #1, Pat remained resolute, never backing off in the slightest.
Well, the problem now is its March 13th. Its 70 degrees ourside and is going to be warm all week. To all but the most delusional, historice snow simply will not happen this year. Thus every day Pat continues to refuse to back off that "historic snow" call makes him look more and more stupid, and it only gets worse over time.
Thus, the question now is, whats his endgame here? We know he "doesnt care" about being accurate. How stupid is he willing to make himself look before he ever comes clean? Will he suddenly stop posting like pretty much every other bear we once had here? Will he start to lie about what he said like contrarian and delete his posts? Will he just continue to keep saying it til the end of days?
In some ways, I think harriet should keep this blog going for another decade. 30 years from now, some psychology student will stumble across this blog and have a treasure trove of info on cognitive dissonance for his dissertation. She perhaps owes it to science to keep this blog going as long as possible.
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