Northern Virginia's November 2011 housing sales were down 16% YoY, and median prices were up 2.1% to $357,500. The average days on the market increased by 10% to 65 days.
(The above statistics include Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Fauquier County, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County).
Monday, December 12, 2011
Northern Virginia's November Housing Sales
Posted by Harriet at 10:24 PM
Labels: November housing sales mris
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19 comments:
Possible reasons that volume and number of sales are down YOY:
Many on the sidelines finally jumped in last year as our market trended up. Witness those on this board.
Tighter lending has limited potential buyers.
Fear of another leg down has influenced people to continue renting.
Buy and hold investors have soaked up the inventory of entry level homes.
Many are "priced in" and can not move (see lack of inventory).
Economic and job uncertainty; need for mobility (perceived or real).
Increased DOM (although I don't think this is that worrisome):
The above reasons.
Inventory is below par and perceived as overpriced.
I think it's worth noting that Arlington County actually did worse than the general NOVA numbers. For example, Arlington's YoY numbers for median price DOWN 11.39%, DOWN 8.97% for average price.
Louden, Prince William and Fairfax County all outperformed Arlington County. Does this mean, OMG, "it" IS moving-in?
I don't follow these numbers anymore, but would be interested to hear from those that do. What do you make of Arlington's lackluster performance compared to its peers? Is it due to low sales volume skewing the data?
Mike,
IMHO, highly unlikely. Until you have multiple months showing a consistent downward trend, it's far more likely that this is just artifactual variation, or mix changes (e.g., in sales in higher vs. lower priced neighborhoods, condos vs. SFHs), particularly important given the small # of sales.
Look at the graphs near the bottom of this chart. You won't see a clear downward trend.
http://www.rbintel.com/statistics/arlington-county-va
Comparing sales year over year:
Regular sales are even.
Distressed Sales are down 28%.
Inventory is down 15%.
"Mike said...I don't follow these numbers anymore, but would be interested to hear from those that do. What do you make of Arlington's lackluster performance compared to its peers? Is it due to low sales volume skewing the data?"
As Ace indicated, thats likely the better takeaway here Mike.
After all, we see an occasional monthly negative number in 2009, 2010, and (before MRIS changed their site) back, in 1999, 2000, 2001 etc. Given how those previous years turned out, it would be foolish to look at that one (negative) month and attempt to glean any trend from it.
Likewise, in 2006-2007, the pumpers harped on a single monthly +25% YOY for arlington as proof that it was still "soaring" despite the overwhelming negative trend at the time.
That said, if Arl or Alex (areas with small sample sizes) do this for say 3-4 months straight, then is probably high time to visit the data and see whats going on.
Until then, assume that stagnation to slightly rising prices is the new normal...
http://franklymls.com/AR7689657
I know Anon argues hard for Immunington, but at least in South Arlington the roll back has been pretty strong.
now will the roll back in 22207 prove to be some sort of miserable stagnation for a decade, or will it prove to be a rapid reversion to mean.
I tend to argue for a rapid reversion to mean, Anon argues for the grand stagnation.
not that it matters much to me.
I kind of like the duplex above, but, i worry that it's flood prone, like all the ones in Fort Hunt.
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/12/13/nar-preps-for-revision-of-home-sales
NAR is going to restate Home Sales numbers down 15 for the last 4 years.
Does anyone think this will restate inventory and or market index numbers in the local market?
Mike,
The site that Harriet linked offers "detailed reports" for Arl. and other parts of NoVA, and the most recent one available is Oct.
If you download the .pdf for Arl., you'll see that while the # of condo ("attached") sales for Oct. 2011 is essentially the same as a year ago, the # of SFHs ("detached") is down by >34%, a big drop. As usual, the avg. sales price (median isn't given) of detached ($>783K) is much higher than the avg. sales price of attached units (>$430K). Both of these figures rose Oct to Oct. (>7% for SFHs), though the median sales price of all units declined.
*If* this same pattern also occurred in Nov., this suggests that the mix (e.g., a much higher proportion of condos sold this year vs. last year in this month) is the primary reason for the median sales price difference between 2010 and 2011 (same month).
pat said...
NAR is going to restate Home Sales numbers down 15 for the last 4 years.
Does anyone think this will restate inventory and or market index numbers in the local market?
My guess is that they have been goosing the numbers for so long to show "improvements" in the market to entice people to buy. Now they have to adjust the historical numbers down just so that they can start inflating the new monthly numbers all over again.
Speaking of Arlington, this dump sold for $390k back in April of this year. Now the same house is back on the market and is selling for $850k.
Sounds like an addition was added given that the price went up over $400k; however, no pictures or mention of an addition in the description.
Very curious to see what the house looks like now, doubt its worth $850k unless it was torn down and rebuilt.
pat,
The restatement of numbers will have no impact. The effect on the economy of sales over the PAST 5 yrs is over and done with. The "stated" number is irrelevant, economic impact was based on real sales.
Inflated numbers might have quelled more panic, but what difference does it make now?
Jewel, it's hardly the same house (maybe the photos weren't posted when you first linked the new listing?)--from the photos, it appears lots of $ went into adding a second floor (or did they tear down and build from the ground?) and completely updating the rest.
Jewel, that house now has "Paella" windows. Yum!
Ace,
The photos weren't up yet.
Glad to see something major was done to the house given the price, couldn't tell from the description.
Ha ha - I also noticed the "Paella" windows.
In the business world planes are very important, that's for business planning, also housing business house plans are very important
Bill,
This reduction in distressed sales seems to be a major cause of the reduced inventory. I would argue that there would be more volume if the great deals were still plentiful. My observation is that there are many investors still buying distressed properties and that the banks are raising prices. I still believe that we will see stagnant prices (overall) for a few years to come.
pat,
N. Arl vs. S. Arl is another apples to oranges comparison. It's all about demographics. I will concede that the 1-4 million dollar market has been hit in McLean and Great Falls. I don't follow this price range in N. Arlington, Chevy Chase, Bethesda, etc.
cheryl
I can't argue that there is no basis for the long stagnation.
It really depends upon psychology.
The bubble was driven by madness,
we will see how depressed people get.
Does anyone feel like it's 2005 again, minus the Hype?
Back then, it was "Buy or forever be priced out" but what was on the market just seemed like shit.
Over-priced, cracker boxes, not a lot of choice, cheap money,
now,
cruddy inventory selections, no strong price direction again,
I know it's strange, but the feel is just weird for me....
Pat
PS I'm up to eyeballs in new wiring and plumbing. F&*k me, I'm up to my eyeballs in new wiring.
Is anyone real familiar with the behaviour of DC Electrical inspectors? I'm trying to see if i can do something, or if they will totally freak out.
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=6906
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