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Thursday, November 3, 2011
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23 comments:
As I predicted, conforming loan limit drama for DC . . .
http://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/dc-area-housing-market-feels-the-pinch-from-lower-jumbo-mortgage-limits/2011/10/31/gIQA4RrEjM_story.html?hpid=z3
If only Congress would let things stand.
per RBI Fairfax County Median sales price is up 9.74% (Sept. YOY).
I just heard from a reliable source that FX CTY is "officially" a seller's market at 2.77 months of inventory...until the tsunami hits!
Mike,
Conforming at 625K seems about right given the price declines since the peak. I'll have to withhold judgment for now.
http://franklymls.com/DC7647539
looks like less then the 04 price and
it's been updated.
Some of you might remember the NYT "solve the budget" calculator we played with here. One of the remedies they proposed was changing the CPI from the broader CPI-U, to a "chained index" which normally results in lower increases.
Well, it looks like this will be one of those measures adopted by the supercomittee:
http://news.yahoo.com/formula-reduce-social-security-increases-201418202.html
I was amused by this comment from one of the measures opponents:
"I think the thought process behind this is, slip this in, people won't understand it,".
Sounds about right.
Some signs the mortgages mess is improving.
1) Warren Buffett buying a big stake in Bank of America. Old, but significant news.
2) Kyle Bass buying a big stake in mortgage insurer MGIC (MTG). http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/11/07/hedge-fund-manager-buys-4-9-stake-in-mgic/
3) The S&P Home Builder Index (XHB) is up over 30% since bottoming in early October.
per Realtytrac Heat Map for Sept 2011:
1 in every 1,000 (approx) homes in Fairfax County are in foreclosure.
1 in every 3,400 (approx) homes in Arlington County are in Foreclosure.
Since Virginia is a non-judicial state, I don't see us having a backlog that can't easily be absorbed.
Contrarian,
What do make of the YOY increase of over 9% in median price for Fairfax County?
"VAI said...1 in every 1,000 (approx) homes in Fairfax County are in foreclosure.
1 in every 3,400 (approx) homes in Arlington County are in Foreclosure."
VAI - I used to track these realty trac monthly stats for a while. I dont have anything for sept 2010 because by then it was obvious the bottom was in and I lost interest. However, I do have 2008 & 2009 stats, as follows:
Arlington
Sep 08 - 1/1142 foreclosures
Sep 09 - 1/1405 foreclosures
Sep 10 - ???
Sep 11 - 1/3244 foreclosures
Fairfax
Sep 08 - 1/271 foreclosures
Sep 09 - 1/384 foreclosures
Sep 10 - ???
Sep 11 - 1/975 foreclosures
Looks like you can kiss that "tsunami" of foreclosures buh bye!!!
Also, regarding any "backlog", I think you seriously need to doubt its existence. After all, the market bottomed in 09 when there were nearly 2/3 more foreclosures than there are now.
Given that the market could handle 2/3 more foreclosures back in 2009 (i.e. handle in the sense of prices bottoming and inching upward), it seems like you would keep pushing out foreclosures at that same pace til the backlog cleared.
Thus, given that there are so few foreclosures left, you really have to wonder if there is (locally) any such backlog to process...
Anon,
Even the experts quoted in Contrarian's article state that the new "wave" will be nowhere near what was seen in the prior years. And, interestingly enough, contrarian fails to disclose that DC (as well as ten other regions) reports declining numbers - per the aticle.
Also interesting regarding the evaporation of foreclosures, lets recall where we are regarding the infamous Credit Suisse reset chart:
http://consumerist.com/images/resources/2008/01/mortgageresets.jpg
In 2009, bears said to wait, salavating at the prospect of massive foreclosures hitting the market in the 2nd half of 2011 -- in an event not to be merely described as a "tsunami" but a TSUUUUUUNAAAAAAAAAMI!!!! of inventory thundering down on the immunozones in mid 2011.
Yet here we are in late 2011 at a multiple year low in regular inventory, reo inventory, etc. What a cruel twist of fate for those who waited til now, thinking the immunozones would be suffering under a mountain of inventory, and firesales everywhere for them to choose from. Just devastating...
contrarian said...
Mortgage payments show surprising rise in delinquencies
----
I think I'll side with Warren Buffett and Kyle Bass. Their track record is just a little better than yours. :-)
VAI - I was thinking too, one of the chief proponents of the 2011 tsunami was Neil (aka wannabuy) who ended every post with that "Got Popcorn?" tagline.
I distinctly recall in 2008/2009where some people doubted that 2011 would be much of a "wave", yet, undaunted, Neil promised us with fancy charts and graphs that it would be nothing less than a "kick ass tsunami"
That got me thinking to check out his old site and see if he had any 2nd thoughts about what happened to his "kick ass tsunami". Turns out, he quit blogging about real estate 2 years ago and now blogs about...wait for it...E books...
http://ebookcomments.blogspot.com/
Hilarious!!!
Are Ebooks a passing fad?
Curious,
My $0.02
Ah yes, Neil. He had all the inside info about the massive exodus of jobs from the DC area. It's was well in the works in 2008.
I've got some popcorn for him. Where did all these doomsayers run to?
Anon-
This only strengthens your point, but there almost triple as many foreclosures when the market bottomed than now. Now in Arlington there is 1 foreclosure for every 3k back then it was 1 for every 1k or 3 for every 3k.
I assume you meant there are 2/3rds less, but the point still obviously holds.
Many real estate agents actually believed their own hype and bought multiple properties at peak.
I had a carpet cleaner over the other day who was a former agent. He "lost" 10 rentals and barely held onto his home. He asked his broker what was going on in the fall of 2005 and was assured it was just a bump in the road and we would continue up. He told me that his broker had been around since the 70's or 80's. He blames his broker for his losses!
He now owns this carpet cleaning company and let his license go dormant. In a former life he sold life insurance. He is my age and has nothing.
I relay this as an example that many agents bought into this ridiculous nonsense. He knows many agents that went bankrupt buying re at peak.
Have I mentioned what a joke the re license exam is? My point is is that there is a difference between being a liar and being stupid.
Good story, VA_I.
"He now owns this carpet cleaning company and let his license go dormant. In a former life he sold life insurance. He is my age and has nothing."
He has a carpet cleaning service
cheryl says:
"My point is is that there is a difference between being a liar and being stupid."
These are not exclusive conditions.
For those who are interested,
my place is going from a 3/1 to
a 3/2, but while digging in the plumbers determined the pipes in the basement were all rotted, and needed to be replaced, so you can do a pretty darned good diorama of the second battle of Verdun in the basement right now.
My lovely sweet and trusting girlfriend keeps reminding me the place was in move in condition when we bought it.
Pat,
Hope that is the only unexpected bad news you get.
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