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Thursday, October 27, 2011
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14 comments:
http://franklymls.com/AR7699222
one for Immunington.
Bought for 410K in 05,
sells at short sale in 4/11 for 286K,
looks like someone realy jazzed it up,
and is now trying to flip it out at 349K.
Pat-
For yesterdays comment. I don't think there are many people here who really expect prices to go up much less go up quickly. Most of the people like myself, Anon, VA_I tend to think prices will remain flatish at ~5-10% above the previous Mar 09 lows. (although some areas are up well more than this). Also 2%/year is actually pretty close to the long term growth rate for housing so I am not sure why you think it is a pitiful gain.
Also I think everyone here knows that the southern parts of Arlington got crushed. When people say Immunington they are usually talking about the orange line area which is down only 5-10% from peak. So showing people that prices fell below route 50 is not really contradicting Anon's claims that Arlington is doing well.
HB,
Please add me to the list of people who agree with your prediction (absent big events that affect jobs, salaries, etc. around here).
Also, while I generally agree with what you say about Orange line vs. everyone else, it really is true only for parts of 22204 and 22206 and not all of Arl. that is south of the dividing line. 22202 (with the Blue and Yellow lines) and some parts of Shirlington (e.g., Fairlington) have generally resembled No. Arl. for a long time, with respect to housing values, ups and downs, few foreclosures, etc.
I should have said "Orange line Arl."
Pat's listing also is right on Glebe Rd., one of the busiest in Arl. I have noticed (though I can't give you data) that during the bubble run up, people were much more tolerant of properties on busy streets (even in the Orange line Arl. area) than they are now that conditions are more "normal."
Others have also pointed out many times why cherry picking a house here and there rather than relying on C-S or looking at all properties in the neighborhood or zip over time is misleading.
Just another reason why - Especially with duplexes that may have been rental properties, a bad neighbor on the attached half can ruin the property value for the other half very quickly.
"HB said...
Pat-
Also I think everyone here knows that the southern parts of Arlington got crushed. When people say Immunington they are usually talking about the orange line area which is down only 5-10% from peak. So showing people that prices fell below route 50 is not really contradicting Anon's claims that Arlington is doing well."
Pat knows this. Its just his coping mechanism. Harmless fun, so I generally let him have it.
I was the same way a few years back, lashing out at the unfairness of it all. Wishing that I too could have gotten one of those plum N. Arl properties for 2002 prices.
I too looked at the S. Arl places, cherry picking, convincing myself "its not different anywhere" mantra would carry the day, meaning N. Arl and the rest of the immunozone would soon slide into the abyss...
Yet it was all for naught. 5-10% off peak prices was gonna be the the best one could get. Turns out the imunnozone was indeed "different".
Eventually I accepted this, and Pat will too. I would say Pat is 2-3 years behind me in the coping process. Give him time, eventually the cognitive dissonance fades.
Anon,
Gravity kills, it just kills slower for some then others.
Let people wipe out their 401Ks, IRA's, Life savings, etc, trying to hold onto their dream in Arlington/Alexandria.
Meanwhile, I'll be chasing yield and cap rates.
BTW, my super deal of an Apt in south arlington is coming available.
Let me know if you need an introduction to the landlord
Pat,
Your flaw is thinking that *all* people can't afford what they purchased.
My $0.02
Has anyone been over to Bubblemeter lately? "The Bubblemeter Philosophy" is not be missed. Embarassingly laughable.
Today's WaPo article on census findings. DC is gaining population in the 25-34 age group due to our employment picture and a new sense that DC has a "cool vibe". This is the cohort that is getting married, having kids and buying a house.
"Anon,
Gravity kills, it just kills slower for some then others."
So the additional 30% drop for immunozone that the rest of the area had is still comin huh?
The "soft landing" immunozone stagnation while income plays catch up thesis is still false huh?
And you still are on track to eat your immunington crow in 2012?
Man, that timeline is looking awfully compressed to me!!!
"Va_Investor said...
Has anyone been over to Bubblemeter lately? "The Bubblemeter Philosophy" is not be missed. Embarassingly laughable."
Just saw that. Its the "lets crash the system so we can have growth - for the sake of growth" thesis which I have always found so strange.
Kinda reminds me of this exchange on the show, "The Office"
Dwight Shrute: I can raise and lower my cholesterol level at will.
Jim: Why would you raise it?
Dwight Shrute: So I can lower it...
Anon,
How on earth is anyone going to convince seller's to reduce their prices? The market determines prices. James' "philosophy" is absurd.
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