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Tuesday, October 25, 2011
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25 comments:
The CS numbers are getting pretty comical at this point. We have another month that is up a lot (1.6%), but the last month was revised down an equal amount with the net impact being that home prices are the same as they were reported a month ago.
hb,
Isn't a flat market what we expected (at least for this region). I still maintain that certain local areas overcorrected. I have seen some really decent rebounds. I don't see how those rebounds won't be sustained.
VA-
Yes I think most of us think it will be pretty flat, so I am not surprised by the net result. I am more interested in why S&P continues to have this problem where it is significantly overstating price gains and then correcting them back down. If this happened once or twice I wouldn't think it was a big deal, but I find it interesting that it keeps on happening.
hb,
It is kind of ridiculous. I'm sure they have some excuse for the revisions. It's probably best to ignore the MOM and look to longer trends (6 months?).
Do you see us revisiting 3/09 (absent a shock to the economy)? Given our local economy, inventory, decrease in foreclosures, etc., I just don't see it.
pat can cherry-pick individual houses all he wants; we've seen people do this in the past. He's missing the forest for the trees.
Did Frank @ Frankly intentionally remove listing agent contact info? I no longer see phone numbers and e-mail links. What's up? I didn't see recent activity on his blog, so I thought I'd ask if anyone here noticed this change.
Todd Kinsey? Social media director for Galveston County, youth baseball coach?
This is a new low for you contrarian; a desperate act. My neighbors (none of whom have been foreclosed upon - in fact, there aren't even any homes for sale!) will be welfare recipients living in gov't owned rentals?
HB & VAI - I agree, it is pretty absurd. It seems like every number comes out at 179, to be revised down, to be replaced with a new monthly value of 179...
Looking at the CS comments, it apparently is a DC specific issue. They arent getting info timely enough to give an accurate 1st number.
I do believe they end up getting an accurate number in the end, but its more like 6 months old by the time the reisions seem to stop (some have even been slightly revised upward).
The last number I feel we can generally trust is Mar 2011. Next month it will be April 2011, and so forth. Its a shame we cant get more timely info. Still, I will take accuracy over expediency.
"Contrarian said...The fact you are ridiculing over my getting information from a non-MSM source is funnier than the fact I got it from a non-MSM source."
Even funnier still, your non-MSM source (zero hedge) got his info from a MSM source (bloomberg):
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-18/bofa-said-to-split-regulators-over-moving-merrill-derivatives-to-bank-unit.html
Once again, I need to thank you Contrarian, for being a never ending source of entertainment...
I just want to know when this is all to happen so I can plan appropriate going away parties - or am I going too?
"The housing lobby strikes again." [Senate Votes to Again Increase Conforming Loan Limits]. At least the WSJ will call a spade a spade. Pathetic.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204485304576645102523642660.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Mike, according to Reuters, that WSJ story isn't precisely accurate. They report it as:
"The Senate voted 60-38 to attach the proposal to a spending bill that the chamber will consider later this year. It would restore the size of the loans the government buys or insures to a maximum of $729,500 from the previous cap of $625,500...It is unclear what will ultimately happen to the provision, given the deep divisions within the Democratic-led Senate and Republican-controlled House of Representatives. It would have to pass both chambers before President Barack Obama, a Democrat, could sign it into law."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/21/us-usa-housing-mortgages-idUSTRE79K0QA20111021
Virgina MLS has updated inventory today for NoVa. We continue to trend 10% below last year.
I continue to predict a strong spring market. Our area continues to have the best housing market in the country. I am closing on a short next month and plan to hold it off-market until at least Mid-Februay. I believe that it is very possible to see a 5% bump this spring. My prediction is specific to this particular house/neighborhood and I don't know if the increase will be sustained.
"Va_Investor said...
Virgina MLS has updated inventory today for NoVa. We continue to trend 10% below last year."
Yep. The low inventory got me thinking about the late-great ALT A TSUNAMI reset chart.
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2009/05/new-credit-suisse-recastreset-chart.html
The myopic thinking of the day was that the Alt A wave would come crashing down upon us in late 2011, providing a bounty of inventory for bears to scoop up places at firesale prices. All they had to do was wait and be patient til 2011!!!
Well here we are, late 2011, peak of that chart, and lo and behold, none of that inventory is to be found. Kudos to Cara, CRT, and David for realizing that this would be yet another nothingburger.
Oh, and to Kevin who wondered how the (bulls) would "spin this into a 'not in DC' or 'this is the bottom regardless' argument"...
It was not in DC.
It was the bottom regardless.
The shrinkage in inventory is not unique to DC. It is apparently happening in other places too ... but it has yet to translate in signs of robust sales. In fact, quite the opposite has occurred. Lowest interest rates of all times and purported "affordability" indices at all time highs, yet actual sales are at depressed levels. I would wait before breaking-out the champagne.
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/10/18/supply-vs-demand-why-is-housing-hurting/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204774604576631381117760982.html?mod=WSJ_RealEstate_LeftTopNews
Mike,
Shrinking inventory = MORE SALES THAN LISTINGS. Supply and demand and all that other economic stuff, ya know.
How does this declining inventory stack up with a falling market? I have a BS in Econ but it was a loooong time ago.
Anon,
You didn't include TBW, spider, et al. Gone, but not forgotten.
Va_Investor: did you even read the articles? That's the whole point = shrinking inventories are NOT the result of increased sales. Take Arlington, for example, where sales are at lows, NOT highs.
Mike, I think VAI's point, as low as the Arl sales may be, they are "enough" to keep inventory from rising and/or prices from falling. Its worth noting that during the last bubble, prices bottomed in 1992, but sales did not bottom until 1996.
Also, while I still think this area may stagnate for a while still, for me its time to "break out the champage" once we reach bottom which (in spite of nothingburgers like the Alt A tsunami of 2011) was, is and continues to be March 2009. Do you disagree?
If so, out of curiosity, how much longer do things have to stagnate/limp along before you decide, "gee I guess march 2009 really was bottom"? I dont ask to be antagonistic -- you have proven to be a much more reasonable bear than many before you. Im just trying to get a gauge when reasonably bearish types such as yourself conclude the bottom was reached...
Mike,
I don't need to read the article to understand that sales levels are low. As long as they meet listings (or, in our case, exceed listings) the market will be stable. Can you give me a hint of why this data suggests a falling market?
The Anonymous: I honestly don't have the energy or time to go through it in detail now. I've stated my general position before.
In two sentences: I have no idea whether we'll reach the C&S low of March 2009. I do think the trend will be lower prices, whether through price declines or through the passage of time with no price gain.
"In two sentences: I have no idea whether we'll reach the C&S low of March 2009. I do think the trend will be lower prices, whether through price declines or through the passage of time with no price gain."
Fair enough Mike. Thanks.
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