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Wednesday, October 12, 2011
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26 comments:
"Contrarian said...
...and for years, I have been saying it would start in Greece, spread to Portugal, Ireland, Iceland and Spain (PIIGS), before spreading to every European country, then Japan, Australia, and the U.S. and China.
Complete. Financial. Meltdown.
The banking system here is already insolvent and has been for many years. People just haven't come to that realization yet. But, when they do, it will be first come, first serve, for those who go to pull their $$$ out, and for the rest....well, too bad :-( .
And, yes, it will affect housing prices, just as the banking collapse in the early 1980's in the oil producing states (Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana) affected the housing markets there.
10...9....8....7...6...5..."
We all know all the arguments Contrarian - and yes it is inevitable. The US is only 250 years old -- a mere blip on the list of worlds superpowers. Yet, why does the US, even less so DC housing come crashing down now, versus say 5, 10, 20 years from now?
We know all the arguments. We've heard all the gloom and doom. We've got all the images of armageddon in our minds: the house of cards, the multi-trillions in pryramiding derivative debt, the hindenburg omens, the deflationary depression, etc. etc. etc. The sky is falling!
This game can last far longer than you can imagine. This country has endured far worse conditions than the ones we see now. Hell, just 35 years ago, everyone thought the USD was toast, and people waited an entire day for gas. The reason everyone is in armageddon mode now is because this is the first crisis that this generation has been confronted with. We've had it easy for decades. And now everyone thinks the world is ending. Bullshit.
And whose to say it plays out in a delfationary depression, and 70% tax increases? Imagine if there was a debt jubilee, and the whole ponzi system is given a fresh breath of life. That would really piss you off, wouldn't it? Truth is, before they raise taxes 70% like you think, they'll cut crap like Ron Paul's $8M in shrimp research. But I know that's not what you want to hear.
You want to be vindicated for hoarding your dollars, your ammo, and your hams. You want to prove to your friends and neighbors that your goofiness and paranoia is merited. Or maybe you're just a drama queen. Who knows? Whatever your reason for wanting to believe the end is near, sorry, but the deflationary depression is not happening anytime soon.
Anon,
You forget Slovakia! Could be the "tipping point". I'm sure contrarian is hoping and praying.
Meanwhile, the rest of us will go on living our lives. And I clearly remember odd/even gas (based on your license plate).
Contrarian, did you read the article at your own link?
Even if the following proposal were adopted, which I think is unlikely, given that 401k and exclusions for other retirement savings are already limited on the high end and the govt. benefits by encouraging retirement savings so it won't find a way to more retirement income from other revenue sources, it wouldn't affect amounts already contributed. The proposal would affect the tax status of future contributions, providing a credit instead of an exclusion from AGI.
"One idea pitched at the Senate hearing is to replace the entire tax deduction with a flat government match of 18% to 30%. The Brookings Institution's William Gale, who helped develop the idea, says if the credit were set at 18%, it would boost tax revenues by $458 billion over 10 years, mostly from wealthier workers."
should have been "won't have to find a way to provide more"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/what-you-need-to-earn-to-buy-now/2011/10/06/gIQAsb2HRL_graphic.html?source=patrick.net
http://franklymls.com/DC7666167
Sold in 05 for 495, assessed at 412
advertised for 320K and U/C after 29 DOM.
But, hey DC property never goes down.
I'm Surprised Anon didn't jump on this one in 05 when he realized all the doomers were FOS.
Pat - half a mil in that nowhereland neighborhood was insane to start with in '05. I'm sure lots of stuff is down in price in various parts of DC compared to that time frame, but this looks more like an example of a terrible purchase than symptom of decline.
Contrarian, have you reached a new low in cognition here?
Earlier in this thread, I pointed out that before they raise taxes 70% like you think, they'll do things to control spending (like Ron Paul's $8M in shrimp research). Apparently you think I am wrong about this, hence you link to an article about a potential 70% tax.
Yet, even YOUR article notes a 70% tax rate is unfeasable, and opines: "There is only one solution to this growth-destroying, confiscatory tax-rate future: Control spending"
Thanks for further backing up my point...
Really though what I find most hysterical, and what I really thinks speaks to a fundamental problem in your cognition is the concept of what consititues "soon". Your original comment:
contrarian said...
Coming soon: 70 percent tax rate
yet your article states "70% by 2035"
In what conceivable universe is the year 2035 "soon"??? Earlier, you said "how will anyone pay their mortgages when tax rates hit 70%"? So is your plan to go ahead and "wait that out" before you buy?
Thus far, you have spent, what, say $150,000 on rent over the past 6 years. Are you now suggesting you are going to flush another $575,000 in renting for the next 24 years waiting to see if the fearmongering 70% tax is enacted and prices crash?
So the choice is
(a) Pay 550K for a house now
OR
(b) Wait 24 years, pay another 575K in rent, AND THEN buy at whatever prices are once the 70% tax hits???
"Pat said...I'm Surprised Anon didn't jump on this one in 05 when he realized all the doomers were FOS."
Nah. In 05, I was a doomer, lapping up the "no place is different" doom aid, spouting out memes like "rental parity coming soon to N. Arlington". I didnt realize the doomers were FOS until the rational bulls appeared, explaining why things like "rental parity" are a fantasy in core immunozone areas. Initially, I wouldnt listen (cuz remember, the doomers told me no place is "special" or "different").
It was around 3 years later in 2008 that I finally listened, and realized the doomers were FOS, and some areas are indeed "different". And thats when I got mad, lashing out at the rational bulls, making up arguments like "but hey, DC property never goes down".
Around 2009, I started trying to explain this to you and other refugees from places like Mr. Mortgage's portal o doom, who defiantly believed the "no place is different" mantra as I did a generation before.
And now, 2.5 years later, it appears you finally listened as you recently stated:
"If my personal situation was different, I'd be hanging out here in Arlington, but the rent/buy calculation is different in arlington."
Its a painful lesson to learn. Likewise, I suspect you are now lashing out at me, as I was with generations of prior bulls now long gone.
And so the cycle continues...
update from the "front"
Cash investors are in a frenzy (and have been for some time now).
A house in Herndon came on the market yesterday as an reo. Nice curb appeal, decent neighborhood and priced quite low at 275K. I saw it yesterday and it was one of the worst I've seen. It needs almost a total gut. The animal urine smell was sickening. I had to leave because I thought I was going to be sick. 12 offers and counting. My agent thought it needed 100K in work (I had my contractor take a look and he thinks 65K).
Twelve cash offers and "it would be a waste of time to come in under 300K". Comps are 400-430K.
I'm out unless I come across a screaming deal. I heard BOA is gearing up to dump a bunch of reo's. The question is whether the number will exceed the demand.
Spring should be interesting if inventory doesn't go up in a significant way.
"I heard BOA is gearing up to dump a bunch of reo's. The question is whether the number will exceed the demand."
The same BOA that contrarian says is soon to be insolvent? His point and figure chart says it's going to zero.
Considering that inventory is low and there are lots of eager buyers now seems to good time for them to sell inventory and raise capital.
The Anonymous said...
"And whose to say it plays out in a delfationary depression, and 70% tax increases? Imagine if there was a debt jubilee, and the whole ponzi system is given a fresh breath of life. That would really piss you off, wouldn't it?"
Spot on.
Anon
So you think I made a mistake, paying $1040/Month on rent when i could in the same area bought:
http://franklymls.com/AR7276342
With Rt 27 in the front yard?
or
http://franklymls.com/AR7124347
or
http://franklymls.com/AR7099803
which was a ruin?
or this charmer
http://franklymls.com/AR7506631
and lets not forget my peer benchmark Myerton
http://myerton.com/
Should I have been Paying 350K for units that rented for 1800-1900?
Do you somehow want to convince me that it's somehow a brilliant idea to buy where my rent is 30% the monthly burn rate?
I let the landlord cut the grass and deal with shrubs, replace teh water heater,
Now in DC, I got an opportunity for a place that matches my rent, where the price went down 33% by waiting, and while I'm a little unhappy that the GRM is 11.1, I wouldn't want a 10 normally but the GF loves the place, and it is in good shape.
I personally believe prices will drop but I'm in school and don't want to move twice.
Let's see what happens, I still have lots of Dry Powder I can invest. FTM, Corporate america is sitting on 2 Trillion in cash because they don't see any good investment opportunities and Cheryl is out.
contrarian said...
"One more thing, Anon.
When this collapse is over, there will be four TBTF banks left standing. All the smaller banks will either implode or be absorbed into the TBTF banks.
Anon is a sheep. BAAAA!!!!"
The stock market had it biggest weekly gain since July 2009 this week. In fact, the S&P 500 is up nearly 15% from the lows last week.
The market is indicating that Complete. Financial. Meltdown. will be delayed a bit longer than you expected. I guess this means your timetable for the meltdown is January 2019? LOL.
"contrarian said...
Too bad so many of those eager buyers no longer qualify for the loans. The party is over."
I guess you decided to ignore the first sentence in VA_Investor's post...
"Cash investors are in a frenzy (and have been for some time now)."
contrarian said...
sorry, but the deflationary depression is not happening anytime soon.
It began in 2007, and will continue until 2018.
There is a distinction between facts and drama. You throw the facts out and substitute delusions. People who live in drama, though, accuse others of drama because they know nothing else."
Why will it continue until 2018? What facts do you have to back up that prediction? Additionally since 2007 we haven't had deflation except in housing, which most agree was a bubble popping, but it bottomed for the most part in early 2009. There has been inflation in commodities since QE and QEII.
"contrarian said...
Anon,
Virtually every MSM article you read will have opposing positions. If the article begins by quoting Jack Jones of ABC Investment company, stating the market is going to crash, it usually ends quoting Mary Smith from XYZ Financial advisors stating they are expecting higher prices. If you haven't figured that out by now, don't read any more. Instead, go join the Occupy Wall Street protest.
And so when you choose to extract the opposing view from an article I quote, what is your point, other than making yourself look like a fool?
Rather than looking at the points I have repeated many times:
-That housing prices are nowhere near a bottom
-That taxes are going to have to significantly increase over the next several decades to pay down the national debt
and so on....
You find the part that is inconsistent with what I have said and pounce on it. But nothing you say changes the basic facts I have stated -- or more specifically, no distortions you attempt to create can alter reality. Housing is going to collapse. The stock market is going to collapse. And the banking system is going to collapse.
Aside from resoting to scapegoating, you have provided no factual data to support a contrary view. Your problem, Anon, is that your scapegoating isn't working. And, you don't have the common sense to try something else - like civil discussion. You simply continue beating your head against the wall hoping it works.
BTW, Anon, I have posted this chart several times in the past. It shows how, immediately following the stock market crash of '29-'32, the top tax rate shot up from 25% to 63% overnight (then 79% in 1936; 81% in 1941; & 94% in 1944).
Another chart I have posted several times, is this one which shows the debt as % of GDP.
Notice it topped in 1933 when the tax rate skyrocketed. Or, stated differently, when the debt got big enough, the tax rate had to be significantly increased to pay down the debt -- not 20 years later as you are alluding to from that article.
As the chart shows, today's debt far exceeds that of the 1930's. Common sense dictates that the tax rate will have to be significantly increased in the VERY near future, meaning in the next few years, to pay down the massive debt.
But, really, Anon, this crap is common sense. If you are so deluded to believe that tax rates will not reach 70% until 2035 then you need to check out of this blog and check into the local mental institution.
As far as place like Arlington being "different," I provide this magazine cover. The magazine is about Arlington and the cover of the premier issue says" "BOOM TOWN." That is the biggest contrary signal to indicate prices in Arlington have topped and on a one-way path headed down from here.
It is reminiscent of the "Home Sweet Home" Time cover story in June 2005, signaling the top of the national real estate market.
Cash is king and the markets are in the middle of a collapse, which began in 2007.
2012 will be a very interesting year.
10/15/11 1:31 AM"
In order to guard against imminent deletion, saving without comment, other than glug, glug, glug, glug, glug.....
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