The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index for the month of July was released yesterday.
"'With July’s data we are seeing not only anticipated monthly increases, but some fairly broad improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices,' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. 'This is still a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are expected and were seen in 17 of the 20 cities. The exceptions were Las Vegas and Phoenix where prices fell, while Denver was flat. The better news is that 14 of 20 cities and both Composites saw their annual rates of change improve in July.'
'While we have now seen four consecutive months of generally increasing prices, we do know that we are still far from a sustained recovery. Eighteen of the 20 cities and both Composites are showing that home prices are still below where they were a year ago. The 10-City Composite is down 3.7% and the 20-City is down 4.1% compared to July 2010. Continued increases in home prices through the end of the year and better annual results must materialize before we can confirm a housing market recovery.'"
18 comments:
Thanks for the #s, Harriet. I don't know why the spokesperson didn't just state more clearly that we have only a seasonal effect and no evidence of momentum upward given the YOY #s.
Cara, nice to "see" you again and hope you're enjoying motherhood and homeownership. Hope your mom is doing well too.
Ace,
There may be more to it. Corelogic came out with a report yesterday on July shadow inventory.
We (national numbers) are down 22% from the peak 1/1/10.
They define "shadow inventory" as seriously delinquent (90 days), in some stage of forclosure and bank held reo's.
Also, correct me if I'm wrong, I believe CS said we are better YOY which seems to say this summer was better than last.
Ace & VAI, recall that the spokesperson was speaking for the country as a whole, where the YOY numbers are clearly in the red (down 4%). That is not the case here in DC where (pending any revisions) we are basically flat at +0.32%. Then again, if the "we" you were speaking about Ace was meant the USA as a whole and not the DC region, then fair enough.
Also, I havent been reading lately but if Cara is back, let me also say hello and hope everything is going well for you.
On a slightly different matter, allow me to toot my own horn a bit and note that my 18 month old prediction of CS moving in the 170-190 range has now expired.
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2010/02/s-december-home-price-index.html
As I noted at the time, I expected a slight upward price movement followed by seasonal stagnation (at the time I called it "a slight '/' shape before we get to the sawtooth part") of the recovery.
This is indeed what happened as we have pushed off of the March 2009 low of 165, (never to be seen again, IMO) and have since broken neither 170 to the downside nor 190 to the upside.
Now that this prediciton is complete, a few months ago I thought I would make a new one for the next 18 month period. However, as my recent debacle of foolishly belittling Kevin's prediciton has shown, I am no longer at the "top of my game" so to speak.
As has been the case with others, now that I have bought, I no longer have the zeal and the patience to pour over the numbers and trends so deeply to where I feel I can make a relatively certain prediction. Thus, going forward I will leave it to others more attuned to the trends and whose judgment has been sound in the past (Ace, HB, etc) as to what the future lies.
Gun to my head prediciton would be that if anything, we are now re entering the long flat period where YOY prices neither rise nor fall much, and inflation works its magic. For reference, take a look at the CS chart for the 1992-1997 "post 90s bubble" period to understand what I expect. But even this is not anywhere near certain in my book.
Anyhow, as I am feeling a bit full of myself than normal today, allow me to say something to those of us who were here 18-24 months ago as the bottom was passing us by...This is not directed toward the reasonable posters (you know who you are) but to the token bull (Robert predicting CS @ 210 by now) and the bears, Spider CS@150, Kevin CS@155, TBW CS@160, Pat CS@155, etc, etc....For those people, let me say...for the record....
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I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!!!
Cara,
Good to see you around. Hope you are enjoying your home.
I am curious to know how going to the same settlement company for refinancing will save significant closing costs. I have heard that some county charges will be significantly less if we go through the same lender for refinancing, but not sure about the settlement company.
Thanks, VA_I and The Anon. Although you're right that I didn't pay enough attention to the fact that the spokesperson was referring to the national #s and the table H posted were DC area #s, I think the point is still basically the same: We don't have any YOY evidence that prices are rising locally or nationally.
It sounds from his comments that prices nationally are down YOY, and the table shows that they are basically the same YOY locally. Locally, they are rising only MOM, suggesting a seasonal effect when compared with YOY.
Maybe I misinterpreted his comments but I thought he could have been more clear to say "the (national) numbers suggest we are still in a declining market."
Look at the first sentence -- I think that should have been tempered given the YOY data.
Anon
My bet was for CS at 155 NLT 2012 ending.
And for what's it's worth, the house i have under contract in this same period sank from 330K assessed to 199.
so at least in Pat's personal world, CS has dropped by 40%
now i was willing to hang loose but, the Fed appears trying to print more and more money
and i got into school
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/story/2011-09-28/millions-of-Americans-are-suddenly-poor/50593610/1
The New Face of Poverty.
WSJ: "Six Questions on Lower Loan Limits."
Why does this matter? Loans that aren’t eligible for government backing tend to carry higher rates and, more importantly, tend to require down payments of at least 20%. Because the FHA allows borrowers to make minimum down payments of just 3.5%, the jump from an FHA-backed loan to a jumbo loan could be one that some borrowers can’t make.
If you live somewhere where all the homes are below $300,000, these changes won’t matter. But for people who live in places where homes are pricier, tougher lending standards and higher borrowing costs could reduce the potential pool of buyers. That, in turn, could put pressure on prices.
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/09/30/six-questions-on-lower-loan-limits/
Oct 2010 inventory approx. 9000
Oct 2011 inventory approx 8200
This is for NoVa, available listings. Close to 10% decline in inventory.
cheryl
i believe Months of INventory is abetter measure then absolute inventory.
9,000 units with 12,000 sales means they fly off the listings.
9,000 units with 1,000 sales means they are rotting and getting old.
because my place was on market 179 days, the price went down 30%
pat,
Within the past week or so I posting the increase in "pendings" over last year. It was pretty remarkable. Inventory down signifcantly and pendings up significantly.
I think people are tired of waiting. I know that you give little credence to the "affordability index" - but it is a good time to buy. I expect a pretty flat market for a number of years (the best deals have come and gone, imo). I'd rather settle into a home and get on the am schedule, all things considered.
Redfin's take on the C-S numbers:
Redfin
"Prices Up, But It's Just a Seasonal Thing
Now let's talk about what's going on with U.S. real estate: home prices ticked up from the summer-time rush, interest rates are dipping below 4%, inventory is down, foreclosures are on the rise again, and demand is still weak but getting stronger.
The numbers for July just came out this week, and prices rose for the fourth straight month, which tends to happen during the summer:
(table, by metro area)
Even when you say, "OK, that was just the summer," and wipe out the gains, it's still a big deal that prices haven't fallen since April, especially since most pundits predicted another 8% drop from April - December 2011."
http://franklymls.com/DC7666167
Bought in bubble for 510K, now
for sale at 320K, but don't worry.
DC Real estate never goes down.
18 Months on Market.
Anon, i predict that your prediction is going to be wrong for next 2 years.
I predict CS going down below 165, how much, I dont know.
http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2011-10/us-recession-2001-14-signs-were-there.aspx?storyid=96825
Reposting here, just so I can find this in the months ahead...
"Vinny said...
Anon, i predict that your prediction is going to be wrong for next 2 years.
I predict CS going down below 165, how much, I dont know.
http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2011-10/us-recession-2001-14-signs-were-there.aspx?storyid=96825"
Ahh Vinny... like so many generations of bears before you, you come in, brimming with confidence, trotting out some natonal parade of horrors as if it is somehow "proof" that DC is going to tank, any moment now.
Given what I have learned about the last 3 generations of bears to inhabit this blog, allow me to make a few predictions as well:
1. You will visit from time to time, hysterically posting a link to this or that as further proof that DC is going to crash.
2. This winter as DC Case Shiller falls (primarily seasonally, but possibly a few tics YOY) you will feel emboldened, coming back to taunt me for how "wrong" I was.
3. Next spring, DC case shiller will rise again, and it will become evident, even to you that DC Case Shiller will not get below 165 by the July 2013 deadline. Yet, like all bears before you, you will deflect, extend the timeline, spin, flail about, and otherwise do everything in your power to keep from admitting you were wrong.
4. As CS comes out each month and I continue to show you every month how truly wrong you were, you will eventually give up, and suddenly go *poof* never to be heard from again on this blog.
We shall see how these predicitons of mine fare. In any event, with the bear ranks dwindling as it becomes increasingly evident that we will never see March 2009 values ever again, thanks for providing some much needed entertainment to this blog.
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