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Monday, September 26, 2011
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24 comments:
I have a home in western Fairfax County on the market for 3 weeks. House in great shape, top notch, upscale neighborhood. We had a lot of traffic and an open house in the first 10 days, almost one offer, then situation flat for the past 2 weeks, nobody coming by. House is in the $400K range. Realtor is encouraging me to drop it another 10K. I realize this is a highly personal decision, nevertheless, if there are any tea leaf readers here who would want to weigh in, much appreciated. My guess is that if it doesn't sell soon, we'll be at the deadest zone of the calendar and I will need to pull it off the market and try again in mid-February, approximately - but of course only God and the devil himself, lol - know what will happen by then?
Thanks all, I get a lot out of reading this blog.
Terry-
I think you are correct that the answer depends on personal information.
If you have looked at all of the comps and you think your house is priced correctly and you are fine living there another year I would stay. If you think the house is either overpriced or you have a strong preference to leave soon I would probably cut the price with the hope of getting a contract in the next few weeks.
In general I think most people here think the market will likely stay fairly flat so prices will likely not be that different between now and 6 months from now. Also assuming you are buying another house in the area if prices go up/down a little it doesn't matter that much since you will make some money on one side and lose it on the other side.
Good luck with whatever decision you make
All-
Just so you know I switched my name from housebuyer to HB when I switched email accounts today.
Dr piggington says if you need to
cut the price 10% every 30 days, until you get an offer, then that's what you do.
Wow we finally had a month were CS was only revised down a very small amount. We also showed another large gain (2.4%) for the July reading, so we are now at 187.8. This is the highest reading since September 2008. The national index was up 0.9%
The DC gains were strongly biased to low price houses. The low, mid, and high tiers were up 5.3%, 2.9%, and 1.2% respectively.
Terry,
On the HGTV message boards (under real estate), there are people who love to see photos of houses on the market and give advice on staging. Sometimes the homeowner finds this helpful, so if this is something you'd like to do, here is one forum where people sometimes post houses for sale:
http://boards.hgtv.com/eve/forums/a/frm/f/9384011632
I agree with HB's points.
Pat, any update on your contract? Hope it all works out.
Sorry, I should have made a link:
HGTV selling houses forum
Hi all,
Hope things are well with all of you. Just closed on a "no-cost" refi at 4.25% for 30 years. With going back to the same settlement company closing costs were so low that we're already at break-even on the $400 for the appraisal. Saves almost $200/month over our original 5.0% rate.
And I'd bet rates are even lower right now too.
Cara-
Its nice to do a refi that paid for itself in a couple of months. I am sure it will be nice to have the extra ~$200/month.
I hope all is going well and your enjoying your new house and larger family :)
Thanks, Cara, for the helpful information.
VA_I,
Thought you might like this (aging in place):
retirement spots
Contrarian-
Have you noticed that he is always talking about real prices and that he thinks inflation will probably do a lot of the work in reducing real prices. Although you are both bearish on housing shiller's view is more like many of our views than yours.
"Contrarian said...In 2007-08, when I said deflation would take hold, another unnamed person (initials CRT) argued that the federal government could bail out the country to stop deflation."
Good thing that most people here listend to CRT and not you, because what he said is EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED
http://www.inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp
After a few months in mid 08 of deflation, they sucessfully refired the inflation engines which are now humming along at 3.77% per year. Moreover, CPI, which measures not only housing (shelter) but all other goods and services we buy, is showing that for all items NOMINAL PRICES ARE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE EVER BEEN IN ALL OF RECORDED HUMAN HISTORY!
Contrarian said...
"HB,
Did you listen to the video above?
In 2007-08, when I said deflation would take hold, another unnamed person (initials CRT) argued that the federal government could bail out the country to stop deflation.
The video I provided above contains the following gem:
I-B-T:
"This is not a time right now for wishful thinking that governments are going to sort things out," Rastani told the BBC. "The governments don't rule the world, Goldman Sachs rules the world."
Contrarian, I am highlighting this because it looks like we have another potential Hal Turner situation on our hands.
On another doomer site where I go to laugh at people, just as you predicted, that Rastani video has swept through the doomer ranks like a viral wildfire. All of them saw something they wanted to see, and hysterically sent it to everyone they know as "proof" that it wasnt just fringe doomsites that saw the collapse coming, now even the very reputable BBC had on a (presumably) vetted, credible, "independent trader" Rastani who was saying the same thing.
Just so you know, one of those doomers (actually more bearish than you), that still values their credibility, has done a bit of backtracking on Rastani's credentials. Thus, he posted a link to this story which says in part:
"In the interview Mr Rastani described himself as an independent trader. Elsewhere he claims he's an "investment speaker". Instead of operating from a plush office in Canary Wharf Mr Rastani works and lives with his partner Anita Eader in a £200,000 semi in Bexleyheath, south London. The house, complete with a mortgage from Royal Bank of Scotland, belongs to her not him.
He is a business owner, a 99pc shareholder in public speaking venture Santoro Projects. Its most recent accounts show cash in the bank of £985. After four years trading net assets are £10,048 - in the red."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8792829/BBC-financial-expert-Alessio-Rastani-Im-an-attention-seeker-not-a-trader.html
For me, the jury is still out on just how credible this guy is, but just as it was with Hal Turner, now that I am doing an investigation, I (and many doomers) find him to be less credible than first thought. He was initially predented by the BBC as a (presumably) active, sucessful well connected trader working the floor of the LSE. Now it is looking more and more that he (a self described "attention seeker") is just some average joe, trading out of his house, who is now deeply in the red.
The real question which people are now asking is how did this really really questionable "attention seeker" end up getting airtime on the BBC? Right now this looks to be quite embarassing for them, and to the doomers who do care about their credibility.
Not that any of this matters for you. I know for you its not the person, but the message, that matters. Thus, be it warren buffett or some crackpot janitor, as long as they tell you something you want to hear, they both deserve to be listened to.
Still, just know that for the rest of us who discriminate between the words of the trailerpark astrologer versus, say, the communications officer of Lloyds of London, many of them are backpedaling from this Rastani character as fast as they can.
Contrarian,
It's not looking too good for you in getting a bargain in your desired nabe (in my zip). I am refinancing and my appraisal came in this morning. Even I was shocked. I don't really follow my neighborhood as it's largely irrelevant to me, but it looks darn close to peak - if not peak.
Brambleton Home Sales - 2011 is record year?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brambleton-sells-377-homes-in-just-over-9-months-in-2011-milestone-marks-a-new-sales-record-for-the-community-2011-10-03
I guess home sales are still happnin' in LoCo.
Brambleton_Home_sales
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