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debt deal expected to harm economy of DC
Contrarian said...I have said all along this is going to be a depression worse than the 1930's and the government has to downsize, but no one believes it 8/2/11 1:48 AMAnd why should they? I mean if the person has a history of being horribly and fantastically wrong most of the time, isnt it just best to not believe anything they say?Hypothetically, suppose someone has been continuiously predicting the following calamaties since, say 1985:1. The Russians have been supplying Cuba and are on the verge of launching a sea based attack against Florida.2. Thanks to hyperinflation, very soon a cup of coffee will cost $40,000. 3. The Ozone layer is being so rapidly depleted, that we will soon see people die in the tens or hundreds of thousands due to cosmic radiation poisioning. 4. We are on the verge of a depression, worse than the 1930s.5. Any day now, the government will come out and make a law that parents having more than one child is illegal.6. Very soon, terrorists will hijack planes and fly them into buildings. 7. A giant sinkhole will open up and swallow 600,000 people in the US...any day now.8. Hal Turner will soon run for and be elected to President of the United States.Given this hypothetical persons track record for the last 25 years, is it best to diligently prepare for all the things they predict, or is it best to ignore them? Moreover, even though the person did arguably "predict" the 9/11 terror attacks, can you really give them credit for that given that it took 16 years for that "very soon" event to happen?
anon2) a crackhouse in DC would sell for a million.3) ozone depletion has caused massive skin cancer outbreaks in australia4) contrarian is not that crazy.5) they did it in china
The cuts in the debt deal are backloaded -- the cuts in 2012 are only $22 billion, so I don't see massive layoffs anytime soon.I think we're in for a slow slog, and nothing really bright seems to be on the horizon. I'm feeling as pessimistic as Contrarian in a way.I think a whole lot of people were incredulous that house prices would decline. They thought that kind of talk was *crazy*. It wasn't like predicting Armageddon, but it was a specific issue that was not so crazy on which to take an anti-mainstream view.Here are CR's Four Scary Charts of the year.
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