Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/06/case-shiller-nominal-and-real-housing.htmlwhat's interesting is what yearcurrent conditions have reverted toin various cities.DC back to 2003 Cleveland 1987.Honestly, sounds like a great deal to retire to Cleveland.
LOL, too bad I want to live elsewhere.
contrariangiven what i've posted do you think places like AZ and NV have bottomed out or is there more downside still there?
Pat, the news keep saying that there is a double dip lately. I doubt we'll know if the second dip will go down further than the first until after it happens (like most real estate info). Is there historical evidence to suggest either way?
VA_Investor is not wrong that when cash flows make sense investors come in. The key is what are the cash flows in Vegas, Phoenix...Vegas is basically work force for casinos and Phoenix is old retireees.I imagine as boomers get older these places will be more attractive.
The cities with the largest price gains in May, compared to April, were San Francisco (3.33%), Washington D.C. (3.27%) and San Jose (3.14 %).Across Northern Virginia as a whole, the unemployment rate of 4.3 percent in April was down from 4.8 percent a month before, representing about 1.43 million people employed in the civilian workforce and about 64,000 looking for work.
I don't know if any of you are interested at all in the metrowest area, but it looks like their original pricing scheme is pretty terrible in my opinion.They have three options1) 1448 sq.ft. 500-530K2) 1942 sq.ft. 625-655K3) 2470 sq.ft. 731K-767KCurrently all of the houses of the TH near that area that are 2500-3000 sq.ft. have been selling for the low to mid 600s. I think they are going to have a disaster of a time selling the houses if they don't lower the prices dramatically on option 2-3. Seeing that most of the additional space is just making rooms bigger I would have thought it would cost them 50-100/sq.ft. so I was a little surprised that they were charging ~200/sq.ft.
Well, I suppose if people are willing to pay $200/sqft then that's what they will charge. Now, if people would stop paying that much, then maybe we're getting somewhere.
wunderbar-People will definitely pay more than that when the value is in the land, although I am skeptical they will pay that much for TH on the exact same land. We will have to see, but I will be amazed if they are able to sell the ~450 TH they are scheduled to make at the current prices. I expect a 50K+ reduction over the next year.
D.C., the Economic SuperstarNothing special or different about WDC...move along.
I admit to being somewhat uninformed about the realty market. Can someone educate me on the selling season in NoVA? I realize we are still in it - but can someone let me know when it usually peaks, then dramatically tapers off - with respect to putting my house on the market? Thank you.
Ordinary, run-of-the-mill, everydayFirst off, the greater D.C. area is much more than a government town. It is a center for high-tech and media, software and biotech. It doesn’t just have lobbyists and bureaucrats and politicians (and the journalists who cover their activities) — it has large concentrations of scientists and engineers, software developers and mathematicians. It is the headquarters location for major media companies like AOL, NPR and Discovery, as well as the National Institutes of Health.Income and education levels drive housing values. And Greater D.C. is among the nation’s wealthiest and most-educated metros. Three D.C.-area counties – Arlington, Alexandria and Fairfax – rank among the top 10 in the nation in income, four of them – those three plus Loudoun - rank among the top five in the nation in human capital (the percentage of adults with bachelor’s degrees). More than 4 in 10 of the Washington metro’s work force are members of the creative class – which means they work in science and technology, arts and entertainment, or professional fields – more than in Silicon Valley, and the third highest in the nation.And make no mistake about it, Greater D.C. is a talent magnet. It took first place on my own recent ranking of the best places for college grads, and it tops lists of the best places for every kind of household: , from families with children to gays and lesbians. It is a big, diverse metro which offers something for everyone. Its talent base acts as a draw for more highly skilled people and also for companies like Siemens, Volkswagen and Hilton, which have relocated their headquarters to the area in recent years.
Terry, the selling season basically coincides with the warm weather months. It can begin as early as the super bowl (mid february), or as late as April. It then runs largely til September or October.http://www.recharts.com/nova/nova.html
Thank you, I have a townhouse in Fairfax County that I need to get on the market, but the former spouse and co-owner is dragging feet.
I am curious about the trendlines in the first chart and how to interpret it. If I understand it correctly, sales were steady and stable in 2010 and appear to follow the same trend line for 2011?I would have expected a downward curve in the 4th quarter.
Terry-Anon was showing the number of listings rather than the number of sales. I can't find a graph for VA, but am pretty sure it follows a similar trend in terms of when houses sell. national sales So sales appear to be fairly high from April-September and lower in the other months.Goodluck with the process and dealing with the ex.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/07/real_estate/walk_away_mortgage/index.htmwill national homedebtors become more ruthless?
June 4, 2009...The House Republican leadership upped the ante Thursday in the ongoing debate over the size and scope of the federal budget, unveiling a proposal to cut spending by $375 billion over the next five years.Do I need to add anything here...
Contrarian,What's your plan "B"? Some friends came up with one in late 2008, when it looked like the world was going to hell in a hand basket.We've got a waterfront farm (100 acres) about 45 miles from the Beltway. 20 acres in meadows and the balance in forest. Deer, turkey, pheasant, fish, etc. There is a main house, guest house and several out-buildings. We divvied it all up as to who had dibbs on what living area and who would bring what skill for living off the land. I even told my mother (76) that she could come, but would have to churn butter or something - no free ride.Am I better prepared than you?
"Contrarian said...A 10% cut in the federal work force? CRT told us the bottom is in in housing prices, so nothing to see here, move along."Contrarian, seeing as CRT has been essentially gone for over a year now, what did he/she do to so effectively get under your skin?Was it the day he embarrassed you by pointing out inflation was not only possible, but likely?http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Consumer_Price_Index/CPI.aspWas it the day in 2009 when he correctly prophecized that:"As the years go by, if this isnt playing out like a deflationary grand whatever, the rest of us will slowly dissipate to the winds, purchasing homes and living our lives. Still im sure he (Contrarian) will still be here, angrily calling us all fools and saying it just hasnt happened - yet. Do you really see that ending well for him?"Maybe it the day you claimed that you were willing to bet CRT on the direction of home prices, and the moment he called your bluff, you panicked, cowering, running from the bet as fast as your little legs could carry you?http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2010/05/northern-virginia-bits-bucket-5132010.htmlMy guess was it was the day of the bet. I distinctly remember that day as CRT made you twist in the wind -- I just sat back I laughed and laughed and laughed. God that was fun!!!
"contrarian said...Anon, Nothing you posted makes any sense. You need to take your meds."You know, this is my favorite part of your defensive strategy -- when you either claim I am lying, or that you do not "understand" -- and then I get to drag out the process by once again painstakingly taking you through everything you said or did, step by step, for all the world to see. So here we go once again. Ready?Lets go back again, to the day of the "bet", and in particular, the things said back and forth, by and between Contrarian (now, of course, deleted) and CRT:http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2010/05/northern-virginia-bits-bucket-5132010.htmlStep #1. On 5/13/2010, Contrarian says to CRT (in part):"Contrarian said...I remember one time I offered a bet to you -- and you wouldn't take me up on the bet.**The housing market is going to collapse. D.C. area will not be immune."Step #2. On that same day, CRT responds (in part):"CRT said...I can tell you I have no recollection of that ever happening. That said, especially with regard to the housing market, let me know your terms:Give me an amount. Give me a date certain. Give me a measurement criteria."CRT then goes on and suggests you use something concrete, like Case Shiller for the DC area.Step #3. This is where it REALLY gets funny. Panicked, realizing CRT has called your bluff, when in reality, you really, really, REALLY do not want to make a bet you most surely will lose, you flail around a bit, citing, not Case Shiller, but DJIA values as some sort of strange indication of whats going on in the DC housing maket.Step #4. Staying on point, CRT notes the absolute absurdity of using the "DJIA as a proxy for the DC market" and goes on to say "Bottom line is this, you have in the past said housing goes down 90%. Case Shiller in the DC area once hit 250 and 90% off would be 25. Do you still believe this? If, yes, when do you think that target will be hit?"So once again, on 5/14/2010 @2:26pm, CRT gives you another chance to respond to the bet, asking you again for your terms. So what was your response?.......THERE WAS NO RESPONSE! YOU PANICKED AND RAN AWAY FROM THAT BET JUST AS FAST AS YOUR LITTLE LEGS COULD CARRY YOU.So thats what happened Contrarian -- all laid out for you on a neat little step by step basis. Do you still need help understanding what happened that day? If so, I will be happy to walk you through certain portions of it, again, and again, and again as necessary. So again, do you still not "understand"?
And so again, when the hell will this 90% off occur?I find it fitting that Templeton chose to sit on the sidelines, waiting for his predicted 90% off to happen -- and he DIED before he saw it. The same thing will happen to you -- sitting on the sidelines for another 40+ years -- paying rent the entire time -- only to realize, on your deathbed, "my God, I wasted my entire life waiting for something that did not happen".Glug, glug, glug, glug, glug....
Contrarian said...Sound familiar? Leaving out the fact that article was more about equity extraction than prices, it does sound familiar -- very much so. Sadly for you, so does this wherein they describe PRICES as follows:2000-2005 bubble growth...check2006-2008 bubble decline...check2009-2011 stabilization...check2012-2014 mean growth...UH OH!!!http://www.itulip.com/housingpriceregionscascade.htmBy the way, that article/author was frequently cited by your nemesis, CRT, for the so called immunity of Arlington/Alexandria/DC. "This does not mean that prices will stabilize at the same levels relative to their peak prices in all areas, however. Prices will tend to fall dramatically from their peaks in rural areas, less so in suburban areas, and even less so in metropolitan areas, largely as a result of the relative lack of employment opportunities in rural versus metro areas and relatively high commuting and energy costs." Sound familiar?
Good to know that this topic is being covered also in this web site.Keep up with the good work.~Cape Coral Properties
Thanks for the great reference post. Just what I was looking for!Cape Coral Rental Management
I think this is a great topic. But there is obviously a lot to consider about this. But I think you made some good points in discussing the topic.Las Vegas Luxury Homes
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