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Wednesday, June 22, 2011
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14 comments:
How to Tell if Your Housing Market Has Hit Bottom.
Robert
"s
Local rents are very strong indicators of real-estate values. Home prices in most communities that have best weathered the downturn tend toward the low-rent end. That is, they have lower price-to-rent multiples, and house hunters will often find it cheaper to buy properties than to rent them.
"
Rents reflect incomes and income stability.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/corelogic-existing-home-shadow.html
Core Logic says Shadow Inventory starting to decline.
Well assuming we don't go into a second depression, the market may actually clear up by next year and we will be seeing market fundamentals at that point.
the only risk remaining at that point is interest rate fluctuation
and liquidity. Certainly with FHA/Fannie lowering the jumbo mortgage size, the very high end will squeeze, but those are people with more more cash and liquidity so they can afford larger down payments
http://franklymls.com/DC7555123
assessed 350K, sits 96 DOM
lists at 210K, i'm willing to bet
it went for a little under that.
so 58%? off assessed?
has some sort of mechanical problem so it's not FHA compliant.
We're #7 on Forbes' Top Ten Worst Cities in which to rent.
Forbes list
Cash buyers are now 30%
Ace
Strange article, i'm not sure
how they figured out what were the
worst cities for renters,
after all they said it's $600/month cheaper to rent then buy in DC.
if that's bad, i'll take bad.
all i can figure is they ran the vacancy rate and said it's harder to find apartments in DC.
I could believe that, enough MFDU's were converted to condo's that the prpoerty market is short large landlord properties.
condo rentals are funny because the landlords lack scaling efficiency.
run a 400 unit building, you can afford a full time superintendent, a full time receptionist and a full time manager.
run a single unit and you are running around showing the place and fixing stuff.
frankly i think a 10 unit place is the smallest to be efficient for corporate investors.
Ace-
It looks like the article was just saying rents here are very expensive and went up last year. They still claim rent vs. buy favors renting.
That being said I recently decided to have a house built so by the end of the year I will have a house. I am still somewhat bearish on housing locally and nationally, but am comfortable with losing money if the market goes down.
Pat-
This is what they used for the methodology.
"With the help of Marcus & Millichap, an Encino, Calif.-based real estate investment firm, we rated the 44 biggest cities in the U.S. based on four criteria: Average rent in the first quarter and how much it changed year-over-year; vacancy rates, since more empty units mean more choices and usually better prices; and lastly the cost of renting versus buying."
Congratulations housebuyer! Time to change your handle?
Pat:
Strange article, i'm not sure
how they figured out what were the
worst cities for renters,
after all they said it's $600/month cheaper to rent then buy in DC.
I was thinking the same thing as well. Apparently the list is about where renting is expensive, and not relative to owning (or average incomes). Rents in cities without rent control (which, frankly, ought to be illegal) tend to track household incomes over time. Same with house prices. One of these is still fundamentally disconnected, and it's not the rental side of the equation.
Robert-
Thanks. lol about the handle, although it will take until the end of the year, so I get to keep the handle a little longer :)
You could just call yourself "housebuilder". Apt now and forever.
Anon
FWIW, I did say that i thought by 2012 we would be on the back side of problems as problematic lending would hit the 5 year mark and we would see how much true garbage was on the books.
the last of the trashy finance was written in 07, and the 5 year Recast/resets would be locked.
Bernanke may want ZIRP but, i think the market may want something else.
the banks and nulti nationals are mostly invested in carry trades hunting for return, so, at some point that will unwind in either
a rising US rate or a declining international rate.
Now, FWIW, i have been looking for property that makes sense against Yield and CAP Rate.
if i buy a place and need to rent it, it should yield between 6-9% and have a cap rate respective to it's risk profile.
i bid on a small MFDU 2 weeks ago, yield of 14%, Cap rate of 10 in DC in one of my favorite areas.
i figured in the future, i can always live in one of the units
or i could make it a condo conversion, go from 4 1BR to 2 3 BR
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