Well, it's going to be a hot Memorial Day, but this spring selling season, at least from the sidelines, wasn't.
Here's the inventory in Northern Virginia as of the first of May. My chart reads from the lower right-hand corner to the upper left-hand corner. Since it's so large, it's also available here.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket - Memorial Day
Posted by Harriet at 11:40 PM
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11 comments:
Harriet-
Thanks for updating the inventory numbers.
It looks like inventory is continuing to slowly trend upward. It is still not particularly high, but it is definitely balanced right now.
Inventory like last year. Job creation good. I think the onus is on the bears to explain why this year won't look very similar to last year...3-5% price increases.
Robert-
I think prices will likely be flatish, so I definitely am not a bear, but I assume the easy argument between this year and last is the tax credit. If you look at the seasonally adjusted version of the CS you can see all of the gains last year came when the credit was available.
The other main comment would be that prices were not actually up 3-5% last year. CS claims they were up, but most other indexes claimed prices were flat to down.
My guess is that prices will be relatively flat so some neighborhoods will be up a little and some will be down.
I think the onus is on the bears to explain why this year won't look very similar to last year...3-5% price increases.
1.US govt pay freezes 2.No more FTHB tax credit?
Any reasons you think this year will look like last year?
Median Price in Loudoun, Fauquier, Stafford, Culpeper, PW, and Fairfax up 5.5% May 2011 from May 2010.
Well CS came out again and it continues to be much of the same. They revised the previous month down and said this month was very strong up 1.1%. There were large gains 1.7% for the low and mid tier houses. The upper tier was up 0.6%.
My guess is next month we will see this month revised down like they have done the last 5+ months, but we will just have to wait and see. Although I think it will be revised down most of the revisions have been ~0.5%, so this will likely continue to be a positive month.
Bill-
Median values are way to volatile. They are mostly just telling you whether there were more condo sales or more SFH sales during the month.
As a good example of this if you look at the median price changes that Harriet posted on the blog for March 2011 vs. March 2010 for the areas you mentioned you get a different result
Loudoun = -4.0%
Fauquier = -3.5%
Stafford = -8.7%
Culpeper = -5.8%
PW = -6.3%
Fairfax = +4.2%
In this case everything except Fairfax is down ~5% not up 5%. So unless you think there was a massive change in prices over the last month or two it just shows that median price data is worth what you pay for it
1. Similar inventory
2. Similar interest rates
3. The majority of this year’s new jobs will be created in Northern Virginia, with 22,100. Maryland will add 15,500 new jobs this year and the District will add 10,500 jobs, according to Delta Associates.
Maybe income gains won't keep up, but I'll believe that when I see it.
In the survey, average home prices in the Washington area rose 1 percent in March from the month before and increased 4.3 percent from a year ago.
3-5% or so...
Effect of the tax credit on WDC housing and NOVA in particular is overblown. IMHO
Robert, prices rose from March 2009 through October (planned expiration was that Nov), then increased again at the tail end of the extended credit, and have fallen every month since.
It isn't overblown. It happened all over the country. It's undeniable.
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