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Saturday, May 14, 2011
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22 comments:
We placed an offer on a home in Alexandria for 96% of asking price with no strings attached (pre-approved, no contingencies, no consideration to buyer).
Our offer was rejected.
The home has been on the market for 90 days.
What gives? I thought this was a buyer's market.
Ivan, without knowing more about the specific property and situation, it's hard for anyone here to guess why.
You could have a delusional seller, or you could be looking in a part of Alexandria where the comparable properties are going for higher than your final bid.
It really isn't a "buyer's market" in most parts of the City of Alexandria or Arl. County, but that doesn't mean sellers can ask any price and get multiple bids.
I agree with Ace. I don't think it is really a buyers market. I think the market is pretty balanced right now, so it isn't really a sellers market either.
Although even if it was a buyers market you still will always have some disillusion sellers who think their house is worth more than it really is.
contrarian,
I would hold onto that thought until we revisit 165 on CS (if that ever occurs).
contrarian-
I think most of them bought a house and have moved on with their lives. Assuming they bought something they can easily afford they are probably no longer worrying about housing movements.
Some of them e.g. Cara even said when she bought that she expected the price to come down, but decided it was worth buying now for personal reasons.
contrarian
i think arizona and florida are decent value plays, buying for 70% off?
heck it's as low as stuff can go, if you live there.
thats what i would want to do.
Tens years from now...
"contrarian,
We are still in the early phases of a complete economic meltdown"
...meanwhile, the rest of us have continued to live our lives. Homes and rentals are paid off or getting there. We don't ruminate 24/7 about impending doom. We live our lives outside a bunker.
Contrarian, you just keep pushing back the date. Are your predictions worth anything?
"Contrarian, you just keep pushing back the date. Are your predictions worth anything?"
A central part of the doomers schtick is to de-emphasize timing. That way, when the big collapse comes, either now, or 25 years from now, they can triumphantly proclaim "SEE I TOLD YOU SO!!!"
Sadly, this has disastrous consequences in real life. I met someone whose uncle was convinced that massive, crippling deflation was imminent way back in 1987. He was so fearful, he sold nearly everything, even his house (for 85K) and began renting, waiting out the collapse which was coming "soon".
Over the next several years, he alienated many of his friends and family as he tried to warn them about what they should do to avoid the collapse. Even his wife (who actually believed him for a while) eventually got tired of living in a bunker mentality, and left him.
Well its now 24 years later and he is STILL waiting for the "imminent" collapse. His house (now worth 250K) would have long since been paid off by now. Instead, he continues to rent with no end in sight. He also has been out of the stock market since then. In addition to the devastating losses of 24 years of inflation, his retirement portfolio is probably 6X smaller than it would have been had he simply kept it in the market.
He is now in his 60s. He now needs to work the rest of his life, just to afford the rent. He likely will die, alone, penniless & bitter, still waiting for the deflationary crash that is "just around the corner".
So we don't have anyone here who thinks the world will end Saturday?
May 21
And Doonesbury is having some fun with it:
Doonesbury
Okay, it's not necessarily a buyers market. I can accept that. But it doesn't seem logical in today's restricted credit market that pre approved buyers are in great supply.
Ivan,
If you were in another part of the Country, I might agree with you.
Listen to contrarian at your peril. Get the best deal you can going in. I can't tell you the future. Nothing in life is a sure thing.
Ivan, if you check out the current inventory in Alex. City, it's fairly low. Also, there are quite a few qualified buyers for properties in Alex. and other close in areas. Not everyone needs financing, and/or you may be competing with people with big down payments, who easily obtained approval for the remaining amount. As CRT's data have showed, the Alex. demographics have changed dramatically in the past decade.
Again, this doesn't mean that the house you are interested in is worth what your seller is asking. If you don't find another property you like soon, you may find that the seller will be amenable to your offer a little later. The spring selling season is winding down, and the slower summer season is nearly here. On the other hand, it may be a seller with no real urgency to sell, and s/he won't move unless s/he gets "his/her price."
Spring season is gone and
volume was down 25%.
Look Cheryl is right when she says there are people who are wildly underwater and can handle that for a very long time. Sure, I watch one guy i know with his wife and 2 little kids live in a little half duplex they bought for 400+K when the equivalent units now sell for 300+K.
however they are also not the sorts who invest into the property or even do much to fix them up.
Deflation is a miserable cycle. Had the Obama people pushed bankruptcy reform this would have been all fixed up.
http://www.rbintel.com/statistics/zip-code-report?zip=22204
Total Sold Dollar Volume $12,647,513 -43.38% +22.88%
Closed Sales 34 -49.25% +13.33%
Median Sold Price $350,000 +3.55% +2.35%
Avg Sold Price $371,986 +11.58% +8.42%
Avg Days on Market 98 days +139.02% +15.29%
Avg Sold to Orig List Ratio 98.38% +1.19% +1.82%
doesnt look good
"contrarian said...
Anon,
I am not quite sure what someone else's uncle who thought deflation was going to occur back in the 1980's has to do with today, but as usual you somehow rationalize it."
I am offering you a glimpse into your future.
As VAI noted, you will be saying the same thing 10 years from now. Likewise, the guy who decided in 1987 that deflation was imminent, is still saying the same thing today, 24 years later. The only difference between the two of you is the date you declared "deflation is imminent", an opinion neither one of you will ever deviate from, for the rest of your lives.
Fast forward to the year 2032, and you will no doubt be saying that its still "early" in the collapse, and that the people who bought homes in 2009 were suckers.
As you say this, you will then be stroking your 288th consecutive rent check to your landlord, with no end in sight. Meanwhile, the people you mocked for buying back in 2009 will be finishing up paying for their homes, looking forward to a life without housing payments.
Sounds fun doesnt it?
Pat, sales prices are up and average sold to list is up. How does that not look good?
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