Northern Virginia's April 2011 housing sales were down 25% YoY, and median prices were up 6.7%. The average days on the market increased by 40% to 63 days.
(The above statistics include Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Fauquier County, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County).
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Northern Virginia April Housing Sales
Posted by Harriet at 12:17 PM
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16 comments:
Here's one example of how Arl. may not be declining:
N. 25th St.
Listed forever at $929000 in 2010, without a sale. Listed this spring at the same price, sells for $920K quickly. Of course, I don't know if any upgrades were made in the interim.
Here's another listing I found interesting/sad, sort of like the Rosemont house I posted about a week or so ago. This house is very pretty and apparently of high quality on the interior. But the builder/renovator seems to be trying to squeeze every $ he could by keeping it to an extremely narrow lot, much smaller than others nearby and too small for the price range.
S. 19th St.
A little web research shows Arl. screwed up on giving him zoning variances and he now is having problems with his other land next to it. He tore down a garage that straddled this tiny lot and the one next to it, which he also owns. It looks to me as if he would have been better off to live with at least some of the restrictions for this house rather than ask for all the variances, and give the house more of the land he owns, because people don't want to be squeezed into a million $ house without a garage. Why not buy a superior condo if you're going to spend that money and not have to walk up and down all the stairs and have a better layout, maybe get some fabulous views, etc.?
I think he'll be able to sell it but only if he drops the price maybe $100K more.
harriett
didn't the last downturn start with a big reduction in volume, and then a
slow price decline as sellers began to chase the market down?
http://franklymls.com/FX7398097
cute place short sale, not bad, My Girl would hate the location, but, it's reasonably priced....
Pat,
Much lower volume and slightly increasing prices isn't a great sign, in my opinion.
I think we bounce along the bottom here. I don't think we have the shadow inventory from builders and speculators that we used to have -- I don't see a massive spike in inventory coming like in 2006.
So what is the change in the limits of federally-backed mortgages going to do around here? It looks like the limit is dropping from 729,750 to 625,500 in this area.
Liv-
I don't think it will have that big of an impact. First the vast majority of the market will either get loans below 625K or above 730K. So this only impacts a small subsection of buyers. Also people with loans this size are usually buying ~$1MM places. Usually these people have extra savings, so if they need to put down an extra 40-50K so get a better loan they probably can. Also even if they can't it just means that the interest rate on the loan will be higher 0.5%-1%, which yet again isn't an enormous change.
So although it is obviously a negative for housing prices, I wouldn't be holding my breath that it is going to cause the market to tank. If you are looking for a house in the price range that will be impacted perhaps it is a slight benefit, but still should be a lot impact event.
If they switched the cutoff to 400K or something like that then it is an entirely different scenario, because a lot of first time buyers get 300K-400K mortgages and these people generally don't have the savings to put extra money down.
I think it will have a bigger impact in the
Immungingtons, Immunandrias and Innunistrict.
while the vast majority of the DC MSA is 400-500K
houses, if you look in North Arlington
it's all 600,700,800K without blinking.
Little crackerbox houses sell for 700K and
rebuilds are a million.
now if suddenly those cost an extra 2%
to buy, that will affect their prices by 16%.
(Yes, i know that's a controversial statement and
many people dislike it, and they argue that
interest rates have zero affect on house prices,
but it sure works that way on commercial
and i would think people at that income level
sure do know how the game works)
so if suddenly those properties drop 20%,
it has to have a push down affect in South Arlington, West Alexandria, NW DC.....
Now sure the Ultra scale properties, McLean by the river, where the kennedy's live, Georgetown,
yeah, they will float above this because those people
pay cash entirely, but, the rest, the lawyers, the professionals, they will struggle along.
Pat-
Why would you think the rate would go up by 2%? Jumbo loans only cost 0.5%-1%. Also as I said a lot of people will just put the extra 50K down.
From what I read many banks require 30% on a jumbo, rather than 20% or even less for jumbo conforming. We put down 10% and definitely would not have been able to buy our house had we been required to put down 30% or even 20%. The jump from 10% down to 30% down is much more than 50k. We did skip the whole "starter house" phase, which I think will be impossible if banks require 30% down.
Link
Nationwide, completed foreclosures (REOs) took an average of 400 days from initial default notice to REO in the first quarter of this year. That's up from 340 days a year ago and more than double the 151 days in 2007.
In New York and New Jersey, it takes more than 900 days to get through the foreclosure process from start to finish, in Florida 619 days, and in California 330 days, according to RealtyTrac.
I haven't followed these stats, but these numbers were mind blowing to me.
Robert-
I agree it is amazing how long people get to live in their houses for free once they stop making payments. Some economists even talk about how it is stimulative for the economy, because there are millions of families not paying rent/mortgages
Jeremy-
I agree that would make it harder on first time buyers who are looking to buy a house exactly in the the 100K range between the two limits. I agree there are some people yourself included who it would have significantly impacted. My point was that it only impacts a small group of people. I also know the jump from 10% to 20-30% is much more than 50K, but what I was trying to say is the limit is only falling by 100K so if you bought a house in the middle of the two limits it would only take an extra 50K so you are still covered under the new lower limit.
Finally I just looked at the difference in rates per Pat's 2% comment. It looks like most banks increased the rates between 0.1% and 0.5%. So the difference in rates is very minimal although as Jeremy noted you usually need 20+% down, which is a big deal for some buyers.
HB
I don't know much about Jumbo mortgages but I thought the spread was higher on those then conforming loans because in part Fannie wouldn't buy them so you had to carry them as portfolio lending.
but hey if the rate spread wasn't a problem, people woulnd't be crying.
The reason people are crying and whining isn't because the spread will affect 635-719K houses but
because it will really impact 800K houses.
Putting a 100K down on 1 800K house can be done. it's a much bigger deal putting 240K down on a 800K house.
Pat-
Wouldn't the person only need to put down 175K so they get under the 625 limit. Rather than needing to put 30% down. My point is yes it will impact some people, but it only impacts people buying houses in a 100K range and only people that do not have a lot of move up equity. I was just trying to say I think that the subsection of people in both groups is small.
As for people crying. NAR is just doing this, because they are huge whiners and are always pushing for extra support for housing.
Wow what has been going on with the internet recently. It seems like another massive problem comes out every couple of day with a service from Google, Amazon, or Sony.
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