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Monday, April 25, 2011
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50 comments:
"Pat said...i'm willing to bet it was a 5 Year Option Arm"
Could be. There were once approximately 400 option arms in Arlington county.
I think pat is still digging up shadow inventory and option ARM reset articles from 2008 and 2009. The story, as we know, turned out to be one of unemployment as the primary driver of foreclosures and falling home prices.
Here is a tax question:
I bought a new house & converterted my primary residence to rental property on nov 15 2010. I had the place cleaned, repaired and painted. I did find a tenant for january, so i didn't get any rent in 2010. Now, it seems I can't deduct any of these expenses from 2010 return since there is no rent income. Does this make sense to you? Can i deduct these expenses in 2011 return? Or in any other way? Thx!
Robert & Anon-
I agree. Option Arms in this area were never a big problem and with interest rates at 0% the payment reset wasn't nearly as bad as most people expected anyways. Either way I think going forward house prices will continue be driven by the employment in this area. If the government continues hiring we will do well. If the tea party really has its way housing prices will probably struggle going forward.
friendly-
My guess is that VA_Investor will know the best, because she has tons of rental places. I am sure you can deduct these payments at some point, so if you can't in 2010 you probably will be able to in 2011. It is also possible that you will need to amortize these costs over a longer time frame so you may need to deduct a little bit each year for 5-10 years.
Hopefully VA_I is reading and can get you a better answer, because I am basically making this up from my very limited understanding of the tax code.
friendly,
While we're waiting for Va_I to visit and share her expertise--
"Example 2.
On April 6, you purchased a house to use as residential rental property. You made extensive repairs to the house and had it ready for rent on July 5. You began to advertise the house for rent in July and actually rented it beginning September 1. The house is considered placed in service in July when it was ready and available for rent. You can begin to depreciate the house in July."
From the IRS Pub. I linked above.
Subject to some other rules about taking rental losses (e.g., if your income is above a certain point, there are limits on passive losses - it used to be that you could carry forward some of them - not sure what the current law is but that would be in the publication), I think you can deduct a rental loss in 2010 if you actually made the former res. available for rent in 2010. If any of the repairs were capital improvements, you would treat them differently but cleaning and painting would be expensed.
Caveat: I am not a lawyer or tax accountant but was in the tax business many years ago. So I just know where to start looking rather than all the ins and outs.
weird -- where did my post with the link to the IRS Pub. 527 Residential Rental Property go? I saw it on here before posting my second post.
Blogger really doesn't like me.
Pub. 527
"Robert said...The story, as we know, turned out to be one of unemployment as the primary driver of foreclosures and falling home prices."
How do you figure that?
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=usunemployment&met=unemployment_rate&idim=state:ST510000&dl=en&hl=en&q=unemployment+in+virginia#ctype=l&strail=false&nselm=h&met_y=unemployment_rate&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=state&idim=state:ST510000&idim=county:PS510100:CN511530&hl=en&dl=en
The record shows that the unemployment didnt really start to spike in until Sept/Oct 2008 -- and by then the price correction was basically over.
If unemployment was the driver, and unemployment didnt really start kicking in until late 2008, how do you explain the price drops in 2007 & early 2008 which were the greatest in recorded history?
Maybe you know something we dont, but as far as I can tell, you are putting the cart before the horse here.
Friendly,
Is it Turbo Tax that won't allow the deductions? Are you phased out for passive losses?
Anon,
I'd agree with you with one caveat. The places that started crashing in 2007 (lower end, heavily hispanic) had their own dynamic. People with low incomes were put in homes that they could not afford, then the construction jobs (which many had) dried up and to top it off PWC started a massive crack down on illegals.
From what I remember, many left for N. Carolina in search of jobs and a more benign immigrant policy.
Anon -
I will agree that falling home prices were less correlated with unemployment than foreclosures.
There was a significant "adjustment" in prices as you pointed out that was the result of the end of easy lending practices.
Sounds like a complete reversal.
VA & Anon-
You are correct that this time prices moved before jobs collapsed (excluding construction jobs). Rents on the other hand moved with unemployment. I think going forward both rents and prices will move with employment, but only over the long term.
Suppose it were 2005 and someone gave you the unemployment data for 2010.
Going long those markets with the lowest rate and shorting those with the highest would have made you more money than any other variable I am aware of.
Sure, you lose money in NOVA, but you more than make up for it with your shorts in Vegas, Detroit, and Phoenix.
CS came out at 181.3 today and the same trend continues of the current month not looking that bad (-0.1% this time), but the bigger story is the revision to the previous months. Losses across December and January went from -0.1% to -1.3%.
Prices have been volatile based on government programs, but prices are now roughly flat with prices from late 2008, late 2009, and early 2010. This general sideways trend is what many of us have been calling for over the last couple of years. The national index still trending down quickly (1.1%/month) and is nearly at 8 year lows.
The AP on the CS
VA_I,
I am using Tax Cut (H&R block).
I did some reading in the net. It seems it will be difficult to deduct expenses without rental income - it seems to raise all kinds of flags with the IRS. So I will try to deduct them from future returns - I need to do more reading.
(Housebuyer & Ace: thanks for the responses)
"HB said...but the bigger story is the revision to the previous months. Losses across December and January went from -0.1% to -1.3%."
I agree. Its frustrating to see a number and rely on it, only to see it revised (sometimes significantly) at a later date.
In order to be somewhat current, CS admitted it has to sometimes rush in order to put out a number that is even 2 months out of date (i.e. putting out the feb number now at the end of april). If they waited the 4-5 months til when they truly were ready to publish (i.e. putting out the Dec 2010 number today), the media probably wouldnt report it.
Nevertheless, I appreciate that they continue to crunch their numbers and make revisions for the sake of accuracy. In this sort of situation, I will always favor accuracy over speed.
“There is evidence that potential sellers are holding their properties off the market, waiting for housing prices to stop falling,” said Bricklin Dwyer, an analyst at BNP Paribas.
Great strategy!
Kevin,
Welcome back. Did you get a house?
Hi Ace, not yet. Almost put an offer on a REO a couple of weeks ago, but somebody beat me to the punch before I could acquire adequate funding and get my loan pre-quals in order (the house going to cost me about 10% over what I was planning to buy). I'm not heart-broken, it needed an immediate $10k in cosmetic repairs/remodeling, along with another $20k worth of work to be done over time. Here's the house:
http://franklymls.com/FX7565519
I've also expanded my criteria to 22032. Have found some decent neighborhoods around GMU. Since I'm going to school there and there are enough back roads leading to Tysons, I've found it to be suitable (only took three years:)
Anything new going on here? Any new data sources or economic considerations (aside from Robert's one-dimensional view of housing via jobs)? I have some, though not really groundbreaking. Will post in a bit...
Kev -- long time no see. I was beginning to think you had left for good.
Say, while you are here, you want to discuss this thread of last summer re: the tax credit and its effect on prices?
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2010/06/northern-virginia-weekend-bits-bucket_12.html
You should remember it well since you then said you would:
"bookmark this page so that down the road when we make up for those obviously artificial gains in the market and end up below your established "bottom", I can mock you in every thread for being wrong."
Later on, you go on to tell me how prices will "tank" in May and June 2010, and how its looking pretty "brutal". Say, how did that one turn out?
Later still, after restating my "CS 170-190 range" prediction, I ask you your end all be all CS prediction, to which you replied:
"Mark me down for 150 by next June."
Now, normally I would wait til June to revisit this, but judging from your # of posts falling off a cliff, its very questionable you will be here by then.
As such, let me go ahead and state for the record:
I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!
Its a shame you couldnt see the forest for the trees. I (and many others) tried and tried to get you to see that you were putting far too much emphasis on the effects of the tax credit. Yet, your emotinal investment in not believing that you had missed the bottom caused you to foolishly insist that ALL of the 2009-2010 strength was due to the credit, and that removing it would cause us to hit 150.
Hopefully this will be a lesson for you. You seem like a decent person, and im sorry you missed the bottom. Still, next time you have an emotional stake in an outcome, try to put that emotion aside when you try to predict the results.
Have a nice day!
http://www.redfin.com/county/2965/VA/Fairfax-County
Redfin has some pretty good local stats. This one is for Fairfax County as a whole. A word of caution: their numbers tend to be revised over time. What looks like a drop or a rise in $/sqft this week might in a few weeks be flat, or the opposite. Don't quite understand how that can happen.
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/VA-Fairfax-home-value/r_4655/#{scid=mor-site-topnavlocalsub}
Zillow has a similar feature, and is continuing to add different data points to their charts. Not perfect by any means, but the data is exportable, so you can create your own metrics based on the data and come up with your own correlations. Like Redfin's data, there is a lot less randomness when you're plotting over a larger region.
http://www.blytic.com/
This is a pretty nifty dashboard for all economic-related data. Quirks aside, there's a lot to play with here. For instance, I can have a dynamic layout of the Radar Logic national price index with the tiered DC price levels:
http://i51.tinypic.com/n689qu.gif
Rbintel, though I'm pretty sure you guys know about this one:
http://www.rbintel.com/statistics/northern-virginia
Again, more volatility as you look at more specific/confined areas.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/
This has taken over the housingtracker.net site and added some new metrics like rent-to-own ratios, and inferred affordability metrics. DC's:
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/affordability/district-of-columbia/washington/
The law firm that handles many of the foreclosure auctions in nova:
http://www.siwpc.net/sales.html
That's about all I can think of off of the top of my head/bookmarks. Let me know if you guys have found any good ones as well. It's probably time we collectively re-compiled a list of sites that Harriet could put on the blog's main page.
Anon: As such, let me go ahead and state for the record:
I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!
Let the record be known that the Case Shiller data has confirmed that as of February, prices have declined for eight consecutive months. My hypothesis was that the tax credit artificially inflated the market, and that in its absence, prices would recede. Since the price increases started in the month of its inception and ended in the final month of its eligibility (which was extended through early September), I think at the very least you have to give me credit for being absolutely dead-on at a national level.
Starting from that same point of a national decline in August of last year, DC's Case-Shiller stats are:
187.19 <-Aug '10
187.09
186.31
185.04
183.90
182.97
181.59
181.33 <-Feb '11
It has declined every single month, though at half the pace of the 20-city index. Call me stubborn, but I don't see this as the point where you can claim any sort of victory in terms of prediction. While I have always been willing to concede that my target C-S level for DC might not be right, I have stuck by my hypothesis about the tax credit for quite some time, and it's really hard to look at the numbers (Case-Shiller, Radar Logic, Clear Capital, FHFA, OFHEO, etc.) and say that I was wrong.
"Kevin said...My hypothesis was that the tax credit artificially inflated the market, and that in its absence, prices would recede."
No -- that was my hypothesis. I noted time and again, that SOME of the gains would go away, but not all. You remained resolute -- saying that ALL of the post 2009 gains would go away -- hence your call of "CS 150 by June", and your "bookmarking" that thread to mock me when we went "below the established "bottom" (i.e. March 09 @ 165).
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
"Kevin said...Starting from that same point of a national decline in August of last year, DC's Case-Shiller stats are:
187.19 <-Aug '10
187.09
186.31
185.04
183.90
182.97
181.59
181.33 <-Feb '11
It has declined every single month, though at half the pace of the 20-city index. Call me stubborn, but I don't see this as the point where you can claim any sort of victory in terms of prediction."
Kev -- think carefully about this one. Is this really where you want to hang your hat? Really?
As you know or should know, prices are SEASONAL and generally decline every winter. Take Oct 09 to March 10 when prices declined from 180 to 175. If the current decline is a result of the expiration of the tax credit, explain to me why dc declined from Oct 09 to March 10 when the tax credit was in full roar?
Sorry, but this position of yours (Aug 10 to Feb 11 declines) looks like a face saving technique, and a very sorry one at that. Prices decline every winter, and (barring some catastrophe) will rise again this summer. When they do, you better think ahead to your next excuse for why you are not really "wrong".
Honestly Kev, you are better than that.
No -- that was my hypothesis. I noted time and again, that SOME of the gains would go away, but not all.
Nationally, all of those gains are ALL gone. That makes your previous remark: "SOME of the gains would go away, but not all" - wrong.
The DC market has not erased all of its gains, but it has also not stopped decreasing. Save your thread-reviving, rub-it-in-your-face victory dance for when we have sustainable price increases, not on the day that the Case-Shiller data shows we've had 8 months of price declines.
If I am wrong, I will admit it. But you yourself could show an ounce of modesty by admitting that on a whole - as an aggregate of the nation - my theory about the tax credit's impact on housing prices has been dead on. Not a "small part", but more like 90% responsible for price increases since April 2009 and the price decreases since August 2010. Chalk up the rest as maybe having to do with interest rates, but you have been overly dismissive of the driving factor in the price shifts.
"Kevin said...Nationally, all of those gains are ALL gone. That makes your previous remark: "SOME of the gains would go away, but not all" - wrong."
Wow, what a bunch of bullshit! You knew all along that we were talking about whats going on here locally. My whole point was given how low our LOCAL inventory, MOI, etc, were, we must be close to fundamentals - and you know this! Do you really think this whole year + discussion has been in the context of national prices, vs whats going on locally? Do you?
If you wish, I will gladly go back and find the mountain of posts where you and I (and others) went over the back and forth over what will happen LOCALLY when the tax credits expire. Do you really want to stand by this argument? Just say the word Kev, I will bury you.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
"Kevin said...The DC market has not erased all of its gains, but it has also not stopped decreasing."
Oh cut the crap dude! This is seasonal and you know it (or you are very very stupid) You want to stand on this leg? OK, then again, why did prices fall Oct09-Mar10 when the tax credit was in full force? Again Kev, ANSWER THE FREAKING QUESTION!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
"Kev said...Save your thread-reviving, rub-it-in-your-face victory dance for when we have sustainable price increases, not on the day that the Case-Shiller data shows we've had 8 months of price declines."
Really? Sure you dont want to just cut your losses now? Tell you what, your "Case shiller 150" goes belly up when june results are released on Tuesday, August 30, 2011. Given we are 30 points and 4 months away from your prediction, do you really want to revisit the issue and go through this agony again at that time?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
"kev said...If I am wrong, I will admit it."
No you wont. Given that your post rate has fallen off a cliff, its clear that the lightbulb has recently went off...its clear you had that "oh shit March 09 Case Shiller at 165 really WAS the bottom and I missed it" moment.
As such, if I may, I will predict that you will follow rule #1 on the internet blogs which is to never, ever, EVER admit you were wrong. Instead, its better to torque, twist, go silent, etc. such that you avoid the pain of eating your words.
Its a shame you choose this path Kev. Contrarian did and look what that has done for him. You know as well as I do, if the shoe was on the other foot, you would be here extracting your ounce of flesh, and it pains you to no end that it is me, of all people who is calling you out. Sorry bud, but its your time. You made a huge shit sandwich with that call of CS 150 by June 2011, and now its time to take a bite.
Kevin, Anon, and anyone else,
How will this affect local predictions?
Fed seen signaling no rush for the exit
OK, then again, why did prices fall Oct09-Mar10 when the tax credit was in full force? Again Kev, ANSWER THE FREAKING QUESTION!
Because the tax credit was originally supposed to expire in November 2009. Whether accounting for seasonal variations or not, that corresponding dip mimics exactly what the rest of the credit's impact had: a surge at the end, a drop-off due to people rushing to get in, and then another rush following its continuation.
"kev said...If I am wrong, I will admit it."
No you wont. Given that your post rate has fallen off a cliff, its clear that the lightbulb has recently went off...its clear you had that "oh shit March 09 Case Shiller at 165 really WAS the bottom and I missed it" moment.
I've established a gentleman's ground rule to when I'll admit I'm wrong. Sustainable (several months' worth) flatness or growth amidst NO new govt interference. That hasn't happened yet, prices have fallen every month since the end of the credit, and you take no exception to acting like a hyperactive jackass even when somebody is vindicated by the data.
For instance, you're far more interested in proving you were right with the context of our conversation (which nowhere is it stated explicitly that we're talking about DC, and since I was talking about a national policy, you could at least have the decency to see how I was right in that context) than you are about my point of the tax credit. Assuming I was wrong about DC - and I absolutely WILL admit it when it's proven - my hypothesis was absolutely correct when applied to the national market.
I wasn't cowering away from this board. I had a new job and have been working my ass off on top of taking two courses per semester. A bit too busy to come pick a fight with someone that's going to project the quotes, positions, and predictions from every other person who he's had an argument with onto me. If you're doing it now that home prices have fallen nationally to pre-credit levels, god knows you would have made sure to waste every possible second of my time and patience to do it last fall.
Ace, Bernanke is playing Russian roulette. I know he's considered to be a really smart guy (like Greenspan), but he's a policy wonk who has missed some ominous signs before, and I think he overestimates what the Federal Reserve can do to keep the dollar stable were the world to lose confidence in it. I really hope that he proves to be a genius here because if he is wrong, the last thing we'll be worrying about is deflation or job losses.
I'm not a hyperinflation theorist nor do I keep a stack of gold under my bed, but I think he's playing an extremely dangerous game.
What did you think of the links I posted (sorry I didn't a-href them)? Any new ones you guys are using?
"Kevin said...I've established a gentleman's ground rule to when I'll admit I'm wrong. Sustainable (several months' worth) flatness or growth amidst NO new govt interference."
Kev -- forgive me but this looks like you are tap dancing away from the original context and putting all sorts of new limitations and exclusions on this. Lets look again at the original discussion, verbatim:
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2010/06/northern-virginia-weekend-bits-bucket_12.html
About 3/4 of the way down the thread, I said give me your "end all be all bottom line number out there". You immediately responded with:
"Mark me down for 150 by next June."
So tell me, if in 4 months CS does not fall the 30 points down to 150 are you
(a) Right
or
(b) Wrong?
Kev, thanks for the new links - haven't had a chance to read them yet but will.
For anyone else interested, here they are in href form:
Redfin
Zillow
blytic
Radar
Rbintel
DeptofNumbers
Affordability
Foreclosures
The Anonymous: I haven't thoroughly read all the posts, but I don't think I need to in order to safely say this: you are an ass. Given the tone of your posts, you seem a bit unstable, seriously.
You: "im sorry you missed the bottom." Ahhh, last time I checked we are a hair away from a double-dip, nationally. If this continues, and I haven't seen any reason why it won't, will DC really escape? You always claim moderation, but really, your just "glug, glug, glug" (to borrow a phrase) that we've reached a bottom.
Anyway, my main point is that you come across as a serious ass.
Mike,
Kevin has always been a serious "doomer" and not the most polite one.
I have my moments of obnoxious behavior, but you don't know the history, comments or tenor of many of his comments.
I believe people should be called out when then have been seriously wrong (and petty) in the past and refuse to acknowledge it.
Perhaps people should be called out when they are wrong or petty, but I think Mike is right - The Anon comes off as worrisomely unstable.
Ace:
Should I email them to Harriet? Seems like the links on the main page are a bit old. Lots of good stuff out there now.
Anon:
I am willing to concede that I probably undershot where our market bottom is. This is the THIRD time I've said it in this thread. When you urge me to "cut my losses" then accuse me of "tap dancing" away, you're being a 100% self-contradicting a-hole. If I stand by one position (that the tax credit inflated home prices), you pounce on me for not admitting I was wrong, despite ALL data validating this hypothesis. You lack the basic humility to admit that I was right on that argument alone.
If I admit I might have been wrong (pending future numbers and a sustainable bottom) in the DC market, you accuse me of changing my position.
So which is it? Do you want me to hold ironclad opinions that don't change with time, or do you want me to buckle and concede to every idiot bullish sentiment on this forum? If I don't say anything in particular, you'll just take a sentiment or past quote from another poster and apply it to me. There is simply nothing I can say (or not say) that you won't use as an excuse to be an immature antagonist.
Va_Investor,
Nobody cares what you think. You've more than demonstrated that despite your seniority via age and experience in the market, you can become the rudest person on this forum at a moment's notice.
Mike,
Ditto.
Mike & LJJ -- what can I say? I make no apologies for my online persona. Guilty as charged.
Kevin,
My bad. You've never been an obnoxious, childish, whining jerk.
I fully admit my bad behavior. I believe that I have asked you to simply ignore me in the past.
"Kevin said...If I admit I might have been wrong (pending future numbers and a sustainable bottom) in the DC market, you accuse me of changing my position."
No I wont. I change my position from time to time. Want to know why? As additional facts come in, thats what you SHOULD do.
On the one hand we have people like Contrarian. He made up his mind a long time ago, and will not change it, despite how many facts come in to the contrary. Thus, as CRT once noted, if this blog is still here in 2018, he will still be here, angrily calling us all "foolish knifecatchers" as we buy homes and go on to lead our lives. Do you really think this is going to end up well for him?
On the other hand there are people who have the capacity to change their minds as the facts around them change -- to put it another way, to admit they were wrong.
Take my former view of CS to be between 160-180 for a few years. As the winter of 09-10 progressed, and the losses were much less than what I expected, I admitted I was wrong and came up with the "CS at 170-190 for 18 months" that I hold today:
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2010/02/s-december-home-price-index.html
What really fascinates me is how reluctant some people are to admit they are indeed human and that predicting the future is not as easy as it seems. Contrarian, has engaged in a herculean effort to delete hundreds of posts, spanning over several years, all in a desperate effort to keep from saying those three simple words "I was wrong".
It remains to be seen how far you will go in order to avoid saying those three little words which apparently may cause you to instantly catch flame and die if uttered. The next few months will be interesting...
contrarian said...
Not quite sure what 'online' has to do with it.
Being a trolling, obsessive, world-class cock on the internet is a badge of honor for him. I'm surprised he's even attempting to distinguish his personality from his (consistent) online mannerisms.
Nobody who so obsessively tantalizes others over nothing or accuses them of being wrong when they're right can have a stable personality IRL.
Contrarian -- im curious, at work do you send out inter-office memos warning about the "imminent economic collapse"? At church, when the minister says "are there any other prayers" do you ask "that god may spare us from the devastating deflation which will hit the US in a matter of months"?
And what about you Kevin? If a co-worker says something in an email you dont like, do you "bookmark" it in the hopes of later "mocking" them about being wrong? At a cocktail party, if someone you just met says something you dont like, do you regularly say they are "delusional" or an "asshole"?
Oh, and Kev, dont tell me you wouldnt be doing the same thing if the situation was reversed. One time, when I was ripping into Contrarian, you said of me:
"I think you and I were separated at birth. One bear, one bull, equally in-your-face rude."
If the shoe were on the other foot, by your own admission, you would no doubt be pulling out old bookmarked links, mocking me about each and every thing where I was wrong.
Moreover, what if I am wrong about this and in fact DC suddenly goes without warning into a devastating spiral down to CS 140. You better believe you will be giving me the biggest "I told you so" in the history of the internet -- lord knows I would then deserve it!!!
Well as luck would have it my "separated at birth" brother, things went my way and not yours. You could have ended the pain today with a short, simple, unqualified "I was wrong", but you choose not to do that. As such, strap yourself in as your disastrous "Mark me down for 150 by next june" call gets closer and closer...its gonna be a bumpy ride!!!
P.S. Im so glad you are back -- it was getting boring here without you :)
Kevin, re: emailing the links to Harriet, sounds good to me.
"Contrarian said...Reality is what it is, Anon. Not anything I can do to change it, so I simply conform to it"
No you dont. You never conform to reality, and you never will. Reality is that CPI is at an all time high -- up 11% from the 2006 "peak" where you sold everything to prepare for the "imminent deflation".
And yet, no matter how high inflation may rise, no matter how much purchasing power you may lose, you will continue to just sit there insisting that deflation is "just around the corner", for the rest of your life...
Glug, glug, glug, glug, glug...
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