The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index for the month of January was released today.
"'Keeping with the trends set in late 2010, January brings us weakening home prices with no real hope in sight for the near future' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. 'With this month’s data, we find the same 11 MSAs posting new recent index lows. The 10-City and 20-City Composites continue to decline month-over-month and have posted monthly declines for six consecutive months now.
'These data confirm what we have seen with recent housing starts and sales reports. The housing market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery. At most, we have seen all statistics bounce along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing....
'Looking across some of the markets, we see that with a January 2011 index level of 99.59, Atlanta has joined Cleveland, Detroit and Las Vegas as markets where average home prices are now below their January 2000 levels. Washington DC appears to be the only market that has weathered the recent storm. While it was up only 0.1% for the month of January, it’s annual rate was a relatively healthy +3.6%, it is still +10.7% above its March 2009 low, and ranks number one among the 20 markets as its average value is almost 85% above its January 2000 level.'"
8 comments:
Robert -- speaking of smugness, this old prediction of yours has now expired:
"Robert said...
Interest rates still matter.
I see a price spike this Fall. CS will be over 200 by the end of the year. 8/24/10 4:08 PM"
Im not gonna give you a hard time because you earlier came straight out and admitted you were wrong. Few people here have been half as honorable as you have in that regard. Just note, you are now 0-2 in this category, so hopefully that will temper future predictions and help improve your accuracy.
Now on to another prediction where I see no need to hold back:
"Spider said...
We will revisit 165 and break below (my prediction is 150-155) sometime in 2010. HAMP failure and fed exit makes this almost certain...12/29/09 11:02 AM"
Likely talking to ghosts here, but in case you are still lurking, Spider WE TOLD YOU SO!!!
It still amazes me, no matter how much myself, Cara, HB, VAI, CRT kept rationally explaining to you why your bearish fantasies werent gonna happen (i.e. a STAMPEDE of inventory), you kept glug glug gluging the doom aid thinking it was just a matter of time.
Before you ran away, you were so fond of telling some of us how we were going to have to "eat our words". Turns out, the only one here who is going to be eating their words is you, and given how absurd they were, hopefully you dont choke in the process!
Anon-
Also to be fair to Robert, his prediction was about as close as ours. We expected prices would fall ~5-10% he expected they would go up 15% and instead they went up ~3%
True HB. And for the record, while my range prediction is still going well, my month by month prediction I made back in Aug is looking worse all the time.
Also, one more prediction from that old thread which is at least in the ballpark:
"Cara said...
Cara's prediction for end of 2010 CS, the DC area as a whole rolls back to between 172 - 177 erasing this spring's last hurrah, but not the full 2009 gains. 8/25/10 9:20 AM"
Still too bearish but not that bad...
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2010/08/unexpectedly.html#comment-8316929105945373243
The Anon, when is your closing?
I'm seeing a lot of houses that were withdrawn from the mkt. last year return to the MLS.
Ace -- 2 weeks if everything goes well.
TA, hope it does.
Was cheking in to see the Case Shiller numbers. So "Spider" is gone huh?
You know, its a bit childish, but I cant help but toot my own horn here. This is what I said about Spider's stubborness to consider alternatives, and his future on this blog
***"CRT said...
Cara/ The Anon - fun banging your head against a brick wall isnt it. Now you see why I dont post much anymore :)
Take the word of this old dinosaur, this guy [Spider] will come around on his own time, or he will become disillusioned as the metrics continue to improve and disappear (remember that uber stubborn blogger "Sidelined" from years ago)?
Either way, save your breath (or fingers in this case) - its not worth it to re-educate everyone who comes new to this blog.
11/24/09 10:21 PM"***
Again, sorry for being so childish here, but that guy really rubbed me the wrong way. Good riddance I say.
Best of luck to the rest of you.
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