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Friday, March 4, 2011
Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/4/2011
Posted by Harriet at 10:24 AM
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23 comments:
I just spot-checked about 10 properties that RealtyTrac lists as "bank-owned".
Every single one of them had sold within months of foreclosure date.
This data is worthless imo. I checked stuff that was foreclosed upon in the fall/winter 2010. RealtyTrac is showing stuff all the way back to 2008 and 2009 as still being bank owned.
What a racket.
a intersting thing to do is use redfin
filter on foreclosures, then on MLS Foreclosures, then on MLS.
for 22204 21 foreclosures, 6
MLS listed foreclosures 424 MLS Listings.
if you believe redfin 5% foreclosures.
pat,
So does that capture all bank-owned, even the ones not listed?
Realty Trac was showing hundreds that were not listed. I hope people are not using them for data on shadow inventory.
I contacted Realty Trac for a live chat with a representative. Well, "Matthew" ran away (I waited 20 minutes) when asked about the huge discrepancy.
It makes me question their pending and default figures.
cheryl
No idea on Redfin. I think most data in These are ratty.
http://franklymls.com/AR7467096#remarks
here's an odd one.
bought in 04 for 440K, asssesed at 539K. listed at 470K with a Short Sale.
All i can think of is sometime in the bubble the owner went for a Cashout Refi and is now trying to sell short.
<a href="http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2011/03/04/realtytrac/> is realtytrac overstating </a>
foreclusre notices?
yes pat, cash out refi....boring
is realtytrac overstating
foreclusre notices?
Which is better location to buy a single family house in nova. My option are a bit older house in centreville (near 28, 66 intersection) or newer house in Ashburn?
Both have good school districts.
Please advice
pat,
Re: Realty Trac
Great minds....?
I just found a property I own being listed as currently bank owned and not even listed for sale.
I closed in December.
No need to say that I am cancelling my free trial with Realty Trac.
It's tedious to wade thru the listings because there is no link to County records.
IMO anything they list as bank owned that was foreclosed on more than 4 or 5 months ago is highly suspect.
Vinny-
I have relatives in both areas, and personally I think Ashburn is a nicer area as long as you want a nice suburban area. Although depending where you work and what you are looking for they both have different positives and negatives
has anyone checked the redfin foreclosure data?
it checked out on the one i was chasing but that's one data point
From the other thread, clarifying language a bit, and adding the performance of areas across the river:
ARLINGTON
Price gains, year 2010............+4.4%
Price gains, years 2000-peak....+128.9%
Losses, peak to trough..........-10.0%
Prices, today vs. peak prices....-5.8%
Gains, years 2000-2010...........+115.6%
ALEXANDRIA
Price gains, year 2010............+7.0%
Price gains, years 2000-peak....+134.2%
Losses, peak to trough..........-12.8%
Prices, today vs peak prices....-6.7%
Gains, years 2000-2010...........+118.4%
FAIRFAX
Price gains, year 2010............+8.8%
Price gains, years 2000-peak.....+129.2%
Losses, peak to trough..........-26.1%
Prices, today vs peak prices....-19.6%
Gains, years 2000-2010...........+84.2%
LOUDOUN
Price gains, year 2010............+8.5%
Price gains, years 2000-peak....+132.1%
Losses, peak to trough..........-30.9%
Prices, today vs peak prices....-25.2%
Gains, years 2000-2010...........+73.7%
PRINCE WILLIAM CO.
Price gains, year 2010............+22.4%
Price gains, years 2000-peak....+182.5%
Losses, peak to trough..........-49.4%
Prices, today vs peak prices....-38.0%
Gains, years 2000-2010...........+75.2%
WASHINGTON, DC
Price gains, year 2010............+3.2%
Price gains, years 2000-peak....+165.1%
Losses, peak to trough..........-11.1%
Prices, today vs peak prices....-8.3%
Gains, years 2000-2010...........+143.4%
MONTGOMERY
Price gains, year 2010............+2.9%
Price gains, years 2000-peak....+134.2%
Losses, peak to trough..........-23.4%
Prices, today vs peak prices....-21.2%
Gains, years 2000-2010...........+84.2%
PRINCE GEORGE'S
Price LOSSES, year 2010..........-15.8%
Price gains, years 2000-peak....+144.4%
Losses, peak to trough..........-44.0%
Prices, today vs peak prices....-44.0%
Gains, years 2000-2010...........+37.0%
As this was a Nova centric blog, we really missed some fascinating stories playing out on the other side of the river.
On the one hand we have DC, which if any place was the mythically "immune" place, this was it. A massive, near PWC sized early decade runup together with a mild, ARL/ALEX sized rundown leaves prices +143.4% for the decade. It makes sense given that its demographic shifts were absolutely massive, reversing decades long population declines, and showing the first increase in white affluent populations in 140 years.
On the flipside, we have the areas sad sack of PG county. A huge bubble fueled runup, coupled with a massive rundown (which is probably not completely done yet given its MOI) leaves prices +37.0% above what they were in the year 2000. At the end of the day, PG's performance is going to make PWCs implosion look like a cakewalk.
CRT,
Agree with you completely on PG County. When we moved here 30 yrs ago the only RE advise we were given was stay out of PG. Nothing has changed. The fall will continue due to the judicial foreclosure process in MD.
You think things will change over the years (decades) and they don't in some areas. The lastest corruption news is just a continuim of decades of the same. Most developer's haven't, and won't, touch PG with a ten foot pole.
As to the NOVA area, some here failed to account for turn-over at peak, first-time buyer's vs move-up with cash and/or good jobs, education, etc. There is no way any reasonable person could equate PWC and Loudoun with the "inner core".
It bores me to even mention my thoughts about the quality of purchaser's, the first-time purchaser's, the fact that much stock was delivered at peak price with the loosest of lending standards, and on and on and on...that differentiated the various areas/Counties.
Comparing net worth of recent purchaser's, true income...it stuns me that people didn't recognize these factors.
http://franklymls.com/AR7466810
interesting.
listed 314K, sold at 354K
sold in 2006 at 580K
Sold 16% above list, 25% below assessed,
So something for everyone, warm market conditions for anon,39% collapse from the bubble for Contrarian.
More interesting #s, CRT, thank you so much for preparing them and sharing them with us. Wish I had bought in DC years ago!
And, barring more stimulus, next year it will be interesting to see if the lower cost areas will give back more of the remaining gains #s than do the higher cost areas.
Now I don't know much about PG
but I do follow some of the DC markets.
In DC you have very diverse markets.
NW (Georgetown, Dupont, Cleveland, Chevy Chase) have the big dollar types.
Capital Hill has the power politicians.
But Anacostia, Trinidad, etc have been blighted.
we've seen a lot of giveback in those areas, i've posted them, which means the hot spots are continuing to boom to hold these averages.
now what would be interesting would be to compare Incomes and household incomes in each area.
i suspect PG has been very stagnant if not declined.
But DC?
PW?
Loudon?
Vinny,
It really depends on your commute. If both you and your spouse will be taking the greenway/toll road every day make sure to add that in to your monthly expenses. We briefly considered moving out Loudon County but decided we'd rather pay the extra money in mortgage every month than in gas and tolls. At least the mortgage is money we will hopefully get back one day, and can write off the interest on our taxes now.
vinny
ashburn will be closer to the metro.
centreville will be the 66 commute from hell.
http://franklymls.com/AR7542037
assesses at 358K, listed at 399K
been on market 180 Days at 675K
somebody needs to catch up to current market conditions.
VA_I, BIG thanks for your input on Realty Trac - priceless!
wondom4 :-)
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