Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.SEC moves to charge Fannie, Freddie execs.Also,FDIC Sues WaMu Execs.Mopping up.
Check out "Economic Indicators - Fairfax County, Virginia"They have a January 2011 report indicating that vacancy rates are 5.3% and have a ton of other good stuff on reo's, jobs, etc.At least we can drill in on FX and guesstimate the rest of NOVA.
cherylwhat were the vacancy rates in 2000?
pat,I don't know. I got the lastest info from "Red Capitol Group".I do know that the rental market was quite tight throughout the 90's. Lots of demand. Multiple applications with some offering over ask. I remember that being a "silver lining".Also, when we moved here in 1981 there were waiting lists at all the apartment complexes around Tyson's. We had to live in a hotel for 3 months.
CherylData always helps make sound analysis.I still have a hard time believing a shift in vacancy in Arlington from 2% to 7% is a good thing.It's not as bad as California or Nevada but it indicates the market is Unhealthy in some respects..
When Negative Equity Comes home:TRUSTEE'S SALE OF 5610 WILSON BLVD, Arlington, VA 22205 In execution of a Deed of Trust in the original principal amount of $417,000.00, with an annual interest rate of 5.8750% from CALVIN O. BAYLIFF, JR dated February 1, 2008,"12/5/2003 $0 BAYLIFF CALVIN O JR 7/27/2000 $211,500 BAYLIFF CALVIN O JR1/1/1963 $0 BAYLIFF HELEN S ET ALso in 2000 Calvin Bayliff buys from his Mother her home for $211K.In 2008, he refinances for 417KNow hes got it on the Foreclosure block within 3 years. Calvin kept the place for 8 years until he decided to do a cash out Refi....Well I guess the County thinks it's worth $502K so he's not even Underwater, he just can't handle the mortgage.
Now what's up here?TRUSTEE'S SALE OF 5908 9TH STREET NORTH Arlington, VA 22205 In execution of a Deed of Trust in the original principal amount of $420,000.00, with an annual interest rate of 7.1250% from FIDEL CORDOBA dated November 29, 2004Fidel gets a 7 1/8ths mortgage ( SUBPRIME) that he bought for 525K, so he hadto have put 100K down or 20%.it's assessed at 560K He can't refinance, so he's probably unemployed.he kept the place for 7 years, so he must have had some reserveson what must have been a 3500 payment.
TRUSTEE SALE 5726 20th Street North Arlington, VA, 22205 By virtue of the power and authority contained in a Deed of Trust dated June 1, 2006, and recorded at Instrument Number 2006153160 in the Clerk's Office for the Circuit Court for Arlington County, VA, securing a loan which was originally $476,000.00.so John McKean buys this place in 2006 for 595K. He puts down 120K.20% down.Arlington says it's worth 566Kand he's going to lose it at a Trustee sale?So he's going to lose 120K or more?
Now here's one.NOTICE OF TRUSTEE SALE 2110 South Kenmore Street Arlington, VA, 22204-5323 By virtue of the power and authority contained in a Deed of Trust dated March 21, 2007, and recorded in Deed Book 4080, Page 643 in the Clerk's Office for the Circuit Court for Arlington County, VA, securing a loan which was originally $330,000.00. Tyra Baker buys her dads house in 1996 for zero dollars. Now she takes out a Refi for $330K and within 4 years is losing her dads house which had been a income generator for her.It assesses at $320K but don't worry, she walked with a big cash out, and treated it as an ATM
I noticed something, the McKeanforeclosure, he has an address in falls church.He must be an investor.
The vacancy problem is more dire in Florida than in any other bubble market: In California, only 8% of units were vacant, while Nevada, the state with the nation's highest foreclosure rate, had about 14% sitting empty. Arizona had a vacancy rate of about 16%.----Interesting, Arlington has a vacancy rate 1% below California.
pat,Where are you getting your data for ARL rental vacancy?
Pat-My guess is a lot of the people you are saying put 20% probably put close to 0% down. In in the early to mid 2000s it was very common to get two mortgages. The first would be for 80% (so Fannie/Freddie could take it) and the second one would be for 10-20% so the person didn't have to put much/any money down. So the first mortgage is the one that is foreclosing, so it looks like the person put 20% down, but in reality there is likely a second/third mortgage
hb,Agree vis a vis the second trust scenario in most cases. I've only seen a rep for a second show up at the courthouse a couple of times to bid in. I wonder what is happening these days.Regrets on the loss last night. Good game. I'm sure you will make the right choice and cheer for Yale's demise.Alas, end of the line for the Big Red women. I even had my jersey on. It didn't help.
VA-Thanks and I am always willing to vote against Yale :)
For those still trying to piece together home prices and median incomes, I would again point to city-data.com. This link is for Arlington:http://www.city-data.com/city/Arlington-Virginia.htmlYou can browse income/demographic stats for the entire county or down to defined neighborhoods or zipcodes.For instance a lot of people keep talking about the median household income for Arlington being $110k. However, as of 2009, this site reports more detailed values of:22205 - $139kArl Forest - $133kBluemont Neighborhood - $134k22207 - $148kAt today's interest rates, a $100k income lets you buy $400k in mortgage debt at a cost of about 30-33% of your gross pay. Add another $40k in income and that means you could readily afford a $560k mortgage without being exceptionally house poor. If you've got $100-112k for a downpayment you're easily into a $670k home.The only thing holding you back is your risk tolerance and continued employment prospects.My $0.02
Arlington's median income numbers reflect a high proportion of young workers, many of whom rent or buy condos. That's what makes comparing Arl. to places like Prince William and Loudoun, with bigger supplies of SFHs and a higher median population age (exclusive of children), a bit misleading. In Arl. zips with higher proportions of single family homes (such as 22205 and 22207), the incomes and ages will likely also reflect this same dynamic.
CherylI posted a link to the ArlingtonCHPD website showing vacancies in2000 and 2010.HB maybe there are second trusts out there, i don't know. why don't you sign up for CAF and check them out
that City data stuff is good
Ace-The renters may mess up that stats, but the young people with low incomes should bring down both the median income and the median housing price proportionately.
hb,Lower income renters tend to double and triple up (or more) in homes. I don't think your "proportionallity" argument holds water.Also, I believe that median income is artificially low in comparison to outlying jurisdictions due to the fact that much of the housing stock is far older than "outside the beltway" homes and, thus, Arlington has a disproportionate number of homes that have been owned by the same person for decades. Many of these people are retired and living on relatively low incomes.You don't see that same number of "estate" sales in areas with newer home stock.p.s. still recovering from last night's shellacking at the hands of Yale. Time to do the honorable thing; congratulate the winner and cheer them on.
Not necessarily, Hb, because they are disproportionately renters and a higher proportion of housing in Arl. is rental. Further those who buy tend to buy condos, which are also more prevalent there than in Loudoun, for example.Remember that the starting point for this discussion was noting that average income was lower in Arl yet housing prices per sq ft or some other metric were higher than in PW etc. and qs about how that could be, or how that could be stable. If you have a lot more 20 somethings making less than 90k and renting or and a few buying lower priced condos than in outer counties, but don't account for these factors you may mistakenly conclude that there aren't many 200k+ households able and willing to buy high priced SFHs in Arl. But there are and they are keeping prices high.
Ace-I was not trying to say that it was not stable, I was just pointing out the ratios are different. There are a lot of reasons Arlington resident can and are willing to pay a higher percentage of their income to housing. First many people find this area more desirable than outer suburbs so they are willing to forgo other expenses to live in Arlington. Arlington residents also tend to drive much less (they live near work, other amenities and have metro access). This saves a lot of money that can be used for housing. They also tend to have smaller houses and yards, which saves money that can be used to pay for the location.So if my comment made it sound like Arlington prices must come down that was not the intention. I was just trying to say Arlington had a higher median price/income ratio than other areas. I would think that trendy areas in cities almost always have higher median price/income ratios than the surrounding suburbs.
HB Says"My guess is a lot of the people you are saying put 20% probably put close to 0% down. In in the early to mid 2000s it was very common to get two mortgages. The first would be for 80% (so Fannie/Freddie could take it) and the second one would be for 10-20% so the person didn't have to put much/any money down. S"So HB you are saying the 30% of all mortgages that are underwater are in a position to make a strategic default?Are you saying what we are seeing is Strategic default?Now perhaps the folks with Intelligence clearances need to stay put, but, that's a interesting blot of defaults i just saw come through.
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