Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
Sorry to be hogging the top posts but I thought everyone would be interested in a more detailed look at what Steve Fuller (of GMU and a local economic guru) is thinking.I have a friend who sat next to him at a very recent round table. Fuller, who I believe has always been somewhat optimistic on the local economy, was practically "pounding the table" on NoVa. He foresee's tremendous growth for this area; he is absolutely convinced that very big things are in the works - regardless of possible defense cuts.fwiw.
VA-That's good to know. I am surprised he would give such a bullish call with the current political uncertainty. I would think this area will do very well if the feds decide to continue high deficits or raise taxes, but this area would be hit fairly hard if they decide to do massive government cuts (Defense/contractors are obviously the biggest, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were massive cuts to Fannie/Freddie and some other administrations).Personally I don't expect the government to make hard decisions anytime soon so I think our economy will be strong, but who knows maybe the government will surprise me. Also I think there will finally be some additional inventory from builders coming to the market in 2011 for the first time in a few years, which should at least help deal with the additional demand.
i personally know a couple of mid-lvl feds (and supposedly almost everyone in their office) think they'll be laid off at the end of FY11.hard to believe a fed would lose a job like this but they're really scared.fwiw.
MM-My parents are senior level feds and no one in their offices are worried about layoffs. Although people at their offices are worried about no raises, fewer promotions, and smaller bonuses. I wonder if the contractors have the same worries? My guess is the fears are not warranted (at least not yet)
housebuyer,normally i'd agree - but according to my friends their big boss and supervisors met with the entire office on Monday over the 2012 budget plan. and as much as 70% of workforce is to be laid off - they just didn't say who. there're also contractors in their office and they are as good as gone it appears.but i'm not a fed so maybe in the end it'd all work out?
and when :)
MM-Wow. Out of curiosity what department were those comments from. My parents work for the IRS, so as the only profitable government agency I guess maybe they get to keep their staff levels :)
re: cutbacks and layoff'sI have a good friend and I suppose he is a defense contractor. He sells computer stuff to the Defense Dep't.Yesterday he put in an offer on an 850K second home. He's in his 40's.He knows many who have the same type of position in other companies. I'll ask him what the general thought is.
hb,I heard this am that the IRS is really ramping up. I think 5K new hires.
Folkswhen i talk to the FAA people, they get told the plan is "2008 budget levels, no hiring, No travel, NoDiscretionary Items" So lots of little stuff will vanishand slots will go empty this year.When I talk to the DoD folks they get a wierd kind of vibe going on, because the Operations budget keeps increasing, but, they were told to slash 10% mostly from Support contractors, so, we may see theBody Shops like Booz Allen,SAIC, trimming staff. There is a fellow named Bunnyover at Piggingtons who sayshe reads the budget plans.Maybe he can predict what's going on.Certainly we saw lots of trims and cuts in the 90's as Clinton and the GOP fought it out.It's worse here because the war is bleeding DoD to death.Lets see what happens folks.
the State Dept.
Contrarian,I read this earlier today. You know what it says to me? Very few distress sellers out there.IF people had to sell, there would be inventory.
"“Three out of my last five offers were in competitive situations, but my buyers are not willing to pay an arm and a leg just because there are others interested in the house.”Many of today’s sellers are in a difficult position, mainly due to unrealistic expectations. “My clients want to sell and are realizing that what they paid in the early 2000s is not necessarily what they can get today,” reports DC-area Redfin agent Tom Lewis. “Over the recent weeks I’ve met with several people, all interested in listing. It’s a tough call for them to decide whether to rent or sell their home.”:stalemate, didn't we see that in 07?sounds like momentum is gone from the bribe and nobody wants to return to the hype.
"Contrarian said...Should there be another leg down (which is what I suspect lies ahead), then many of those 25% underwater will choose to swim (walk away) rather than sink (hold onto a home further underwater)."Contrarian, interesting how you phrase this. 2 years ago, you would have written a similar sentiment as:"when the next leg down occurs (again not "if" but "when"), then 25% of those underwater..."Why the change in language?
"When I pull up many listings on the county property records, it shows the current owner has refinanced 2 or 3 times over the last 5 to 7 years."which county website Contrarian?
http://franklymls.com/DC7375352sells at 182, assessed t 320down 40%
contrarian,I saw some data from CoreLogic that showed the State of Virgina at 22.7% underwater mortgages and the number has been decreasing due to the wash-out of reo's and shorts.We all know that the worst of this is down south (Virginia Beach, Hampton Roads and other far away places).D.C. is 15.5% Which is more likely to be similar to our locality? And let's not forget all the homes that have no mortgage.Are you honestly telling us that this area is 25%?I won't even bring up Clear Capital's data on price appreciation for NoVa in 2010 (#2 in the nation) and the prediction for 2011 (#1 in the nation) or the the fact that metro D.C. has the largest population increases in the entire East Coast. And we won't even discuss our unemployment rate....
contrarian,You forget the nuclear strike and the meteor hit.
contrarianwhile it's possible the Government ay shut down it's if we follow prior examples we will see 4 week max shutdowns.
VA_Investor:I remember Fuller, so might others:"In a nutshell, you couldn't be in a better market," according to Dr. Stephen Fuller, Director for the Center for Regional Analysis and School of Public Policy at George Mason University. "If you're worried about some bubble, or slow down, or something that's evil, just put yourself in any other market," he said. "They envy us." This was his 2005 impression of the housing market. You can find his other Yun-like whoppers via Google. The time has long since passed for Mr. Fuller to disclose all renumeration received by the housing industry. It's a dirty little secret that many academics receive compensation from interested industry, as recently illustrated in the documentary "Inside Job."
WSJ Article: Banks Push Home Buyers to Put Down More Cash"There's no question that the tightening of criteria unquestionably prices households out of the market," said Zillow economist Stan Humphries. "The middle ground buyer is the one having to fight to get a conventional mortgage." Graphic to the left contains DC-specific info. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703312904576146532935600542.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories
Mike,Point taken. He is quite a bull on Fairfax County and his Chair is endowed by Dwight Schar.But do you think others envy our economy?How many corporate relocations have we seen? Are Clear Capital and Corelogic bought and paid for?How about the Post and their recent front page article declaring the region on the mend? Is this some twisted joke from the Post?As far as 30% downpayment; I'll believe it when I see it. You did notice the comment about the segment of the population that will be most affected? I don't think it's good for anyone to have a permanent renter-class. Others may disagree.I have every reason to want lifetime renters, but it's a huge step backward in terms of wealth equality and reminds me of that Christmas movie (or even the story of Serfs).
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