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Tuesday, February 1, 2011
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14 comments:
Out of curiosity is anyone else seeing a lot more short sales over the past couple of days? I might just be random noise, but it seems like a fairly high percentage of my redfin listings have been short sales recently.
HB
I was just thihnking the same thing...
FWIW, there has been some pretty significant movement in the Case Shiller futures market:
http://www.recharts.com/cme.html
The dotted red line represents the (future) price today. The blue line shows where the future prices were trading a month ago.
Thus, there has been pretty significant downward movement for Boston, Miami, SF...Chicago had a huge move downward.
The only one that didnt change at all (perhaps unsurprisingly) is DC, still confirming March 2009 was indeed the bottom.
That said, the movement among (almost) all the rest of the cities is fairly signifcant. For the last 2+ years, most futures prices were trending upward. The downward move last month is by far the most widespread one I have seen since perhaps late 2008.
Right now, I dont think this is much more than an anomaly as prices more than 6 months out tend to be much more volatile than those that expire in the next 6 months. Still, it will be worth watching to see if there is further movement next month.
Anon-
DC does not appear to have any data from the last month. I assume this means the contracts haven't traded. DC expectations probably did better than most areas, but I would think the contracts didn't trade rather than all prices were exactly flat over the month.
principal cities
I saw this article and thought about our previous discussions about people living in cities vs. suburbs. At least over the last year vacancy rates fell in the suburbs while they rose in cities. The article makes it sound like its the poor parts of cities that have the high vacancy rates. So I don't think this disagrees with our comment that people want to live in cities, but shows we should have clarified the statement to the nice low crime areas of cities.
Speaking of articles....did anyone get a chance to read this in regards to the mortgage situation in VA?
http://tinyurl.com/492sh8c
housebuyer,
well, a short sale like this doesn't really count, wouldn't you say? there's zero chance to close at this price. such a waste of time...
MM-
It is unlikely it will go at that price, but I was just curious if I was the only one seeing some distressed sellers. Those sellers count as distressed whether the price is real or not. If the inside of the house is really ugly selling in the low to mid 400s isn't totally crazy. Seeing that the house was bought for its assessed price in 2006 my guess is the inside is not great.
As a comment though the short sales I saw were listed for ~5% less than the current market prices so I wouldn't be surprised if they end up going at or slightly below list price.
housebuyer,
i was thinking the bank wouldn't agree on that price, no matter how ugly the inside might be.
banks - two lenders...
MM-
Usually the banks determine what they think the value is, so if it is a disaster inside they will consider lower prices. I saw that it was two lenders, which definitely means it will take a long time to hear back from the banks, but doesn't necessarily mean a deal can't be reached. I wouldn't try and buy the property, but for an investor they might consider trying to get it and if the banks demand 500K+ the investor could just walk away.
MM and HB,
RE: Short Sale
I am very familiar with that house.
Ever since we moved into our home, its been an eyesore in the neighborhood. There is always trash strewn about the front yard.
There are vehicles constantly coming and going too - people going into the house for 5 mins and then immediately leaving.
No surprise its a short sale, I've been waiting for it.
One nice thing about this house is that it backs up to Bluemont Park and is very private in the backyard. However, I have no idea on the condition of the interior. If the exterior is any indication, it can't be good.
http://franklymls.com/DC7492964
down 20% from assessed.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41355854
Now to vacancies. There were 18.4 million vacant homes in the U.S. in Q4 '10 (11 percent of all housing units vacant all year round), which is actually an improvement of 427,000 from a year ago, but not for the reasons you'd think.
The number of vacant homes for rent fell by 493 thousand, as rental demand rose. 471,000 homes are listed as "Held off Market" about half for temporary use, but the other half are likely foreclosures. And no, the shadow inventory isn't just 200,000, it's far higher than that.
# Slideshow: 10 U.S. Cities Where Renting Beats Buying
So think about it. Eleven percent of the houses in America are empty. This as builders start to get more bullish, and renting apartments becomes ever more popular. Vacancies in the apartment sector have been falling steadily and dramatically, why? Because we're still recovering emotionally from the toll of the housing crash.
Younger Americans have seen what home ownership has done to their friends and families, and many want no part of it. Credit has become very nearly elitist. Home prices, whatever your particular data provider preference might be, are still falling.
That's the thing bugging me, I can't get good data on Vacancies.
Can anyone come up with local vacancy figures?
This article cites the census, so i was thinking maybe searching US Census data.
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