Northern Virginia December housing sales were up 1% YoY, and median prices were up 4.5%. The average days on the market increased by 19% YoY to 63 days.
(The above statistics include Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Fauquier County, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County).
A few problems still persist at the new MRIS statistics site. MRIS recently updated its presentation of market statistics. There are some discrepancies in the data, e.g. their "Detailed Reports" and "Summary Reports" have slightly different numbers; also, median sales prices are missing for years 2006-2007 in Prince William County. My former chart used to combine PW County and Manassas, but MRIS no longer publishes both together, so I just include PW County.
Source: MRIS
Friday, January 14, 2011
Northern Virginia December Housing Sales
Posted by Harriet at 12:16 AM
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7 comments:
Realty Trac is predicting a 5% fall in prices next year, I believe. This is nationwide and they disclosed the worst markets. We were not in the the top distressed msa's. I have not looked at the entire chart.
I was just wondering what you all think of the local situation. Their predictions, as far as I can tell, are based on shadow inventory and ARM adjustments/resets coupled with amortization kicking in.
I still expect roughly a 5% decline from the current CS number through the end of the 2011. I think the second 8K boosted prices and that will go away. After this I continue to think the general trend is flat for the foreseeable future.
Overall, I still like this month by month prediction I did a while back.
2010...............MOM..........YOY
Sep 187.5.........-0.4%.......+3.8%
Oct 186.0.........-0.8%.......+3.3%
Nov 184.0.........-1.1%.......+2.7%
Dec 181.0.........-1.6%.......+1.2%
2011
Jan 177.0.........-2.2%.......-0.2%
Feb 173.5.........-1.9%.......-1.7%
Mar 171.5.........-1.2%.......-2.2%
Apr 170.5.........-0.6%.......-5.0%
May 171.0.........+0.3%.......-6.3%
Jun 172.0.........+0.5%.......-7.4%
Jul 173.5.........+0.9%.......-7.6%
Aug 175.0.........+0.9%.......-7.0%
Sep 176.0.........+0.5%.......-6.1%
Oct 175.5.........-0.3%.......-5.6%
Nov 174.5.........-0.6%.......-5.2%
Dec 173.0.........-0.9%.......-4.4%
2012
Jan 172.0.........-0.6%.......-2.8%
Feb 171.5.........-0.3%.......-1.2%
Mar 171.0.........-0.2%.......-0.3%
Apr 172.0.........+0.6%.......+0.9%
May 173.0.........+0.6%.......+0.9%
Jun 174.5.........+0.9%.......+1.4%
Jul 176.5.........+1.1%.......+1.7%
Aug 178.0.........+0.8%.......+1.7%
I too see 2011 as being weaker than 2010, but mostly because of the waning tax credit but also a smidge from the shadow inventory (mostly from discretionary sellers coming out of hiding, not because of the ARM resets).
Nevertheless, the bottom was, is, and remains 165 seen in March 2009.
Anon-
I agree about the bottom although I am not convinced Mar 2009 was the bottom for where most of us are buying. In 2009 PWC/Loudoun... were absolutely crushed particularly inexpensive properties and inner areas particularly high end houses hadn't been hit much. So even though I don't think we will hit 165, it is mostly because I don't see PWC hitting crisis levels. It is entirely possible that higher end prices could hit 2009 levels. The problem is that there isn't very good data on this so we will never really know if this happens.
HB
Now the question is the banks want to get rid of Obama, so, they will probably start a squeeze.
Squeeze now, see if you can really put the market on hang.
Food prices, and energy prices are really raring up. What happens as they continue tightening credit for houses, and dump inventory?
bernanke hates Obama, so, how will this play out?
pat-
I will give you that energy prices have increased significantly, but food prices have not increased that much. Input costs (e.g. corn, wheat...) have increased by the prices consumers are paying have not increased that much. If you look at CPI prices food is up less than 2% this year. Basically restaurants and food producers have not been able to pass along increases in their input costs. This likely will eventually happen if the commodities don't come down, but it hasn't happened yet.
Personally I can't think of any major food I buy that has changed in value. The restaurants are flat and Costco has not passed along many if any major increases.
HB
"but food prices have not increased that much. "
Companies are cutting down portion sizes and sales volumes.
they are lowering fill levels in containers, and squeezing the margins.
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