Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
I finally got around to looking at the tiered index for DC. It looks like low and medium price properties went up slightly and high priced properties fell by about half a percent. The cut off for high priced properties is in the low to mid 400s. This makes me wonder if perhaps the further out suburbs are doing better than the inner suburbs.Also DC continues to be the only city where the aggregate index value is higher than all three of the tiered indexes, which is a little strange.
That's beyond a little strange, that's impossible. Are the tiered indexes not a three-month average?
Kevin-Depending on how the index is built up it may be possible if you allow for houses to come in and out of different areas. It could also happen if they are just compounding monthly returns rather than indexing back to a start date. The main index is less volatile so if you compound monthly numbers it will lose less value to volatility (e.g. if you lose 10% than make 10% you are worse off than if you lose 5% and then make 5%)
CNBC article, "US to Detail Pentagon Savings, Cuts": As has been widely expected/reported, the Pentagon will make cuts. Today, we learn of the possible size/depth. Given that these savings are to take place over 5 years, I'd say that area contractors should be relatively happy. Still, the cuts can't possbily be viewed as a "good thing" for this area's housing market, assuming the cuts will effect DC disproportinately, as they ususally do. This, coupled with the other multitude of factors, puts downward pressure on area housing prices."U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is expected to announce as early as Thursday about $100 billion in savings for the Pentagon and cuts to some weapons programs, sources said on Monday."http://www.cnbc.com/id/40904751
Mike, agreed.What's interesting is we possibly may enter into an era of austerity. I'm not predicting this, but imagine if we enter an environment where the USG is constantly at the threshold of borrowing and they have to cut year after year. You can see some of that at the state level. Deficit year after year. Cuts year after year.If you are a fence sitter, it may be a long, long time before you can say with confidence it is a good time to buy.
I think cuts to defense are a huge mistake. There is plenty of pork out there that should go first. Remember Roosevelt's thoughts about carrying a big stick? Just my opinion.As an aside, I am quite pissed at the FX CTY assessor's office. I had not paid too much attention but expected assessments to continue down. They raised the tax rate to compensate.Now I am doing a 1/1/11 FS and going through everything and so far 2 of the 3 properties I looked at have increases in assessments over 10% from last year (or 2009). Double whammy. Increase in rates and, now, assesments.Those idiots spent like drunken sailors when assessments were climbing (and tax revenues) in the double digits and are now screwing tax-payers on the way down.Same as happened in the first 5 years of the 90's.
VA_I, of course they spent all that money, it's what they do. Their revenues doubled in a very short time, following the bubble. Now that prices are correcting and they never bothered to save that amount (nor treat it as the short-term anomaly that it was), they just increase the multiple. There's nothing you can do about it, and it's happening all over the country. I've had a few friends try to find the silver lining while their home prices tumbled, thinking that lower property taxes were in their futures. Sadly that's not always the case.
"I think cuts to defense are a huge mistake. There is plenty of pork out there that should go first. "that would be about half our defense budget.we need a much smaller military, we need to not be in ridiculous wars,we need a national policy that doesn't drag us militarily around the world.We procure ridiculous fighters,ridiculous transports, Our National R&D posture is awful...People argue for Weapons we have never used....
Pat-I agree that we can probably reduce the defense budget substantially. The problem is that the vast majority of the feds budget is medicare, social security, defense or interest.Realistically we can't default without causing a global depression and likely a war, so we have to pay the interest. So that only leaves the other three programs to make the major cuts.Many people think the other three programs can't be touched, but to fix our spending/revenue problems we are going to need to lower the cost of all of these programs and raise taxes.
Contrarian-Those predictions from June 2009 didn't turn out so well. I am pretty sure that fiscal 2011 taxes are based on 2010 assessments. So in June 2009 the article was saying that home prices would fall significantly in 2009 and 2010. If you look what actually happened prices for both residential and commercial properties went up in both of these years.
is it bad form to ask lender A for pre-approval letters then do loans from lender B who offers better rates?
MM,Ask lender A to match the rate. This is business. Tell him/her you were offered a better deal. Make sure it is not some bait and switch. I'm sure you are comparing apples to apples - points, lender fee's, etc.
MM-No that is perfectly acceptable, people do it all the time. I agree with VA that it is nice to give the lender a chance to match the other offer.Contrarian-You are correct that you can't tell about the 2013 prediction, but you can say that the 2011 tax situation will not be far more difficult than the 2009-2010 tax situation.
You might find this article interesting re: defense spending as a growing % of the budget.2001-2008 spendingAnyone interested in reducing spending on Medicare and health care spending in general, while providing better care and covering more people, might want to read T. R. Reid's "Sick Around the World." He provides some observations on what works and what doesn't in other developed countries health care systems.
"countries'", that is.
Ace,Very enlightening article. I wonder how much of the current talk of defense cuts is merely a slowing of the extraordinary growth rather than actual decreases.
VA_Investor,Good point. If we have more defense contractors than total federal employees in all functions (which was cited in a source in a prior thread), something is really out of balance.Also, Reid's book has a different title--it's the PBS video that was called "Sick Around the World":Healing of America
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