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Tuesday, January 11, 2011
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17 comments:
core logic says that house prices fell 1.6% in November. I assume that DC fell less than most of the nation, but if house prices continue to crumble across the country I would assume that will have an impact on this area and the rest of the economy. Seeing that they use a three month average it is finally looking at just post housing credit numbers.
hb,
I know I always seem to have a "glass half-full" outlook, but all the economic data as of late seems to indicate that the worst is behind us. I do hear comments from local business leaders (indirectly) that support this.
I am somewhat clued into the national economic outlook/reality from people on the ground. Things are looking up but an unexpected crisis could derail this recovery - that is my take.
Harriet -- are you planning on doing a "decade of sales" series for december?
. Things are looking up but an unexpected crisis could derail this recovery - that is my take.
i generally concur but i add a couple caveats
1) bernanke has washed the banks with cheap credit. This has allowed massive Extend and pretend on non viable projects to continue whistling away.
2) This cheap credit has washed into Commodities, so we see high oil prices.
3) It was high energy prices that caused the economy to stagger in 08.
4) zero cleanup has occurred in the bank sector, such that they are back to the same books in 07.
5) any craziness in Europe, Asia or Africa may cause macro instability.
now can bernanke trip off inflation?
Who knows.
I don't think its the end of the world but it's still just a gant mess
VA-
I agree. I am also fairly optimistic and things are looking pretty good, but as you and Pat said there are risks.
Pat-
Banks have much healthier books than they had in 2007. If you look at Citi for example they had $2.2 Trillion of assets and $50 Billion of equity in 2007 for a leverage ratio of 44. They now have $1.9 trillion of assets and $144 billion of equity for a leverage ratio of 16. They also are marking risky loans for less than 100 cents on the dollar. So although I agree there are risks the economy banks are not nearly as close to falling off a cliff as they were at the end of 2007.
http://franklymls.com/DC7263118
talk about chasing the market down.
hb
i think the banks have just engaged in fuzzy accounting.
granted Bernanke just gave BofA a $100B blow job, so, he screwed the taxpayers that way and if he keeps it up, he may yet fix the banks.
Of course we will get screwed out of trillions before it's done.
Texas Native,
Are you "Pricedout4ever" on craigs list Housing forum? Same question to Kevin - and are you two the same person?
I believe that people shouldn't hide from their statements.
As far as I know TN never responded to the comps in his neighborhood of choice. Told us that prices were at new lows but, when presented with the comps, failed to respond and justify his statements.
Man (or woman) up.
VA_I,
We are not the same person. Are you Lawrence Yun? Schooled in economics, but utterly and shamelessly ignoring even the most basic tenants of economics, you must be the same person.
Kev,
Struck a nerve? I am who I've always been. Bubblemeter, CL HOFO, and here. No multiple personality disorder here. Who are you?
p.s. my CL hofo handle is "formerwinner" and goes back to the fall of 2006.
What preceded this question was a post on CL HoFo claiming prices were at new lows (by priced out4ever) in the Oakton/Vienna area.
You didn't get the joke about Yun. You probably don't even know who he is, which kinda makes sense given that you don't know anything about real estate other than it being a big fat slot machine.
Tell me again how the median income for a town can afford to buy a median house, and how a doubling of that ratio is sustainable.
Gotcha.
I don't care about Yun or anyone else. Just please don't hide under different handles. Make your own analysis and rely on pundits/economists at your own risk. Don't post misleading data - there is enough out there already and yours was not even data.
Sorry things aren't going your way.
Kevin, Cheryl
Both of you need to cool off.
If kevin isn't on CL, that's fine.
If you are great.
Me, I am usually pat almost everywhere.
The question in my mind is what makes sense economically.
DC tends to be a little pricy but people don't have to have cars in DC proper.
People do overpay, I've seen it, and yes affordability is relatively speaking much better now.
That said post bubble what is the long term correction?
Tokyo is much more affordable now then in 89 but it's still awful, and it's downsizing.
Houses continue to lose value in Tokyo and people are more impoverished then ever.
Japan has hit the limits of cheap money.
pat,
I don't have the answer to any of your questions. I just move forward - you place your bet and you take your chances.
I try to find the opportunity of every situation. Clearly, I'm not always right. I'm not one to be paralyzed or to hide for cover. I try to figure things out and take advantage of whatever I can. I've lost, but far less than I've gained.
I find it difficult to talk to and understand people who are so negative and fail to think forward.
Census: Long-distance moves in US hit record low
VA_I:
Sorry things aren't going your way.
Don't know why you're insinuating they aren't, or why you implied last week that I'm trying to buy in Vienna.
Just please don't hide under different handles.
I am not posting with different handles, you deranged kook.
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