Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 7/31-8/1, 2010

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/30/2010

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/28/2010

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S&P/Case-Shiller® May Home-Price Index

The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index for the month of May was released today.

"'While May’s report on its own looks somewhat positive, a broader look at home price levels over the past year still do not indicate that the housing market is in any form of sustained recovery,' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. 'Since reaching its recent trough in April 2009, the housing market has really only stabilized at this lower level. The two Composites have improved between 5 and 6% since then, but this is no better than the improvement they had registered as of October 2009. The last seven months have basically been flat.'

'The May 2010 data for 15 of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites show an improvement in annual returns compared to April’s report. With the month-over-month data, while 19 of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites were positive, we are in a strong seasonal period for home prices, so that was largely expected. In addition, there may still be some residual impact from the homebuyers’ tax credit, since they affect any purchase that closes through June 30th 2010. We need to watch where the housing markets will go after these temporary stimuli go away. June’s existing and new home sales and housing starts data do not show much real improvement in those statistics either. It still looks possible that the housing market might bounce along the bottom for the foreseeable future, before showing any real improvement that will filter through to the rest of the economy.'"

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/27/2010

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/26/2010

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"The 330 thousand [new home sales] in June is the worst June on record. With all the gyrations, it is difficult to see what is happening month to month, but overall this was a very weak report".

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 7/24-7/25, 2010

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/23/2010

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/22/2010

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Epic Fail

We here could have told them so, but would they listen?

"The housing tax credit was a clear and unequivocal failure. Not only did most of the benefit go to people who were going to buy anyway, but the credit didn't reduce the overall supply (the total supply includes both homes and rental units). The credit just incentivized some people to move - and pulled some sales forward - and to the extent the credit went to new home sales, it actually was counterproductive by increasing the excess supply. This is a textbook example of bad policy".

Here's the link to the full WSJ article. Cara points out in today's bits bucket how D.C. is different. (Apologies to Ben Jones for our specialness).

6.3 MOI, amongst the lowest
0.6% rise in inventory, miniscule
6.2% increase in price, amongst the highest handful
6.8% jobless rate NONE better
9.8% overdue payment rate, bottom third and enviable compared to many.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/21/2010

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"Total housing starts were at 549 thousand (SAAR) in June, down 5% from the revised May rate of 578,000 (revised down from 593 thousand) . . . This is way below expectations of 580 thousand (I took the under!), and is good news for the housing market longer term (there are too many housing units already), but bad news for the economy and employment short term."

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/19/2010

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NAHB Builder Confidence falls to lowest level since April 2009.

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 7/17-7/18, 2010

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/16/2010

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Washington, D.C. is the nation's strongest job market.

"The D.C. area, which has seen its unemployment rate drop from 7.1 percent in February to 6.2 percent in May, has maintained the strongest average employment outlook this year".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/15/2010

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/14/2010

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/13/2010

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Northern Virginia June Housing Sales

Slippage

"The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of homeowners shows 53% report the value of their homes are worth more than the amount they still owe on their mortgages. But 35% report the opposite and say they owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth. . . . The number who say their homes are worth more than their mortgage debt is down slightly from the past several surveys but is consistent with findings for more than a year. In December 2008, 61% of homeowners said the value of their home was higher than what they owed on their mortgage".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/12/2010

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Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 7/10-7/11, 2010

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/9/2010

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Liar Loans Making a Comeback? (say it ain't so!)

Consumer Credit Declines Sharply in May (unexpectedly!)

30 Year Rates at Record Low (fox and grapes - many borrowers don't qualify)

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/8/2010

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/7/2010

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/6/2010

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Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 7/3-7/5, 2010

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/2/2010

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 7/1/2010

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