Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 1/30-1/31, 2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/29/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/28/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/27/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

S&P/Case-Shiller® November Home-Price Index

The The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index (graph here) for the month of November was released today.

"'While we continue to see broad improvement in home prices as measured by the annual rate, the latest data show a far more mixed picture when you look at other details.' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. 'Only five of the markets saw price increases in November versus October. What is more interesting is that four of the markets – Charlotte, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa – posted new low index levels as measured by the past four years. In other words, any gains they might have seen in recent months have been erased and November is now considered their current trough value. On the flip side, there are still some markets that continue to improve month-over-month. Los Angeles, Phoenix, San Diego and San Francisco have seen prices increase for at least six consecutive months. Looking at the annual figures, four markets – Dallas, Denver, San Diego and San Francisco – have finally entered positive territory, something we really haven’t seen in at least two years in most markets'.

'To add more mixed signals, we are in a seasonally weak period for home prices, so the seasonally-adjusted data are generally more positive, with 14 of the markets and both composites showing improved prices in November. On balance, while these data do show that home prices are far more stable than they were a year ago, there is no clear sign of a sustained, broad-based recovery.'"

Note: I am working on finding the revised number for October 2009. It appears there was an October 2009 revision, and the month-over-month decline should be -0.5% and not -0.3%.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/25/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

This week's economic calendar will have some housing data for discussion.

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 1/23-1/24, 2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/22/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/21/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

FHA Announces New Standards

FHA policy changes to be announced today:

"Under this plan, the agency would increase the up-front insurance premium that borrowers pay at the closing table from 1.75 percent to 2.25 percent of the loan's value starting this spring.

While most FHA borrowers can continue to make down payments of as little as 3.5 percent when they take out a loan, those with a credit score of less than 580 will have to make a down payment of at least 10 percent, possibly starting in the early summer.

The agency also plans to propose limits on the amount of money sellers can kick in, including by paying closing costs or giving free upgrades. The agency will reduce seller concessions from 6 percent to 3 percent of the home's value, in line with the industry norm, this summer.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/20/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/19/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/18/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 1/16-1/17, 2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/15/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Rasmussen Poll Today

"Just 55% now believe that buying a home is the best investment most families can make. That’s down from 79% over the past eighteen months. Just 54% of homeowners believe their home is worth more than their mortgage. Earlier polling showed that 65% now think it will take the housing market at least three years to recover".

Caveat: polling on housing has been a lagging indicator.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/14/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/13/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/12/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/11/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia December Housing Sales

Last month, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties broke their three-year losing streak in year-over-year median prices for December. Arlington County showed a record median price for December at $558K.

Sales volume was down an average of 10% YOY in the Northern Virginia region.



Source: MRIS

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 1/9-1/10, 2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

And Now for Something Completely Different - Falling Iguanas

It's not balmy in Florida this week.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/8/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/7/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/6/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/5/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/4/2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Current Housing Inventory

As we head into the new year, total housing inventory in Northern Virginia has continued its steady march downward since peaking in August 2007. Available inventory is at a five-year low for January. We'll keep a close watch on inventory as we head into the Spring selling season which generally starts in earnest after the Super Bowl (weather permitting).

The dramatic nature of the rise and fall of inventory in the last five years can be seen here in this roller-coaster graph of Prince William County.

The total "Northern Virginia Inventory" represents the combined housing inventory (listed on the MLS) of Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County. These numbers are extrapolated from Virgina MLS.

To read this chart, start at the lower right-hand corner of each section (labelled "2005") and read your way left. It's a little quirky, but it works for me.

(Alternately, here's the spreadsheet on a separate page).

Cash and Bidding Wars in Northern VA

From Dina ElBoghdady at the Washington Post: Cash-rich real estate investors trigger bidding wars, frustrate other buyers.

Calculated Risk comments:

"These bidding wars should be setting off some alarm bells with regulators - not because of the cash flow investors, but because of the loose lending standards for FHA loans".

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 1/2-1/3, 2010

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

Happy New Year!

Here's a blast from the past -- a reader poll on Friday, May 30, 2008 asked, "When will DC metro house prices rebound?"

Your answers were:

2008 2%
2009 18%
2010 33%
2011 20%
2012 10%
2013 14%

Votes: 204

A "price rebound" was defined as two quarters of positive growth in the median DC Metropolitan Area single-family house price. Prices were to be taken from the National Association of Realtors® website.

With the help of Mr. Buyer Bribe, our two quarters of positive median price growth were achieved as of the third quarter of 2009.

Here's a little snapshot of the quarterly data:



On February 11th, fourth quarter data will be released from the NVAR. Feel free to venture your opinions on the 2010 regional housing market in the comments. In the meantime, here's a positive thinking video for 2010, in case you've been feeling fleeced lately.