Northern Virginia November housing sales were down 20% YOY, and median prices were up 9%. This was another weak month for sales, with the interesting exception of Fauquier and Culpeper Counties.
Also, note that Prince William county is missing some data. MRIS recently updated its presentation of market statistics. There are some discrepancies in the data, e.g. their "Detailed Reports" and "Summary Reports" have slightly different numbers; also, median sales prices are missing for years 2006-2007 in PW County. My former chart used to combine PW County and Manassas, but MRIS no longer publishes both together, so I just include PW County.
Source: MRIS
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Northern Virginia November Housing Sales
Posted by Harriet at 10:39 PM
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14 comments:
Is a volume decrease and price rise indicative of a local peak and stagnation or decline?
Pat-
I think its probably easiest to just go out to the courthouse and see how everything works. Each county does it slightly differently, but it should be pretty easy to get a list of what will be for sale. If you write down what some of the properties sell for you can get a good idea of how good/bad the deals are.
WSJ Article: More Foreclosures Expected in 2011
“Brace yourself for another rough year in housing: The number of foreclosures is expected by many to increase in 2011 as more troubled mortgages work their way through the pipeline . . .
“The market is expected to tally about 1.2 million bank repossessions in 2010, up from 900,000 in 2009, he says. "We expect we will top both of those numbers in 2011." . . .
“That's partially due to issues the industry has faced with foreclosure processing that began in the fall and delayed a portion of foreclosures from being completed this year, he says . . .
“Continued high unemployment also is expected to exacerbate the foreclosure problem in the year ahead, as will upcoming interest-rate resets on adjustable-rate mortgages that will increase monthly payments for some homeowners, Mr. Sharga says . . .”
For the longer term, however, the outlook for the foreclosure market is better since fewer homeowners are becoming delinquent on their mortgage payments. Thirty-day delinquencies are down 11% since the height of the recession in the first part of 2009, according to Mr. Brinkmann.
And loans 60 or more days past due are expected to fall nearly 20% by the end of 2011, to about 5% of all mortgages from an expected 6.2% at the end of 2010, according to a forecast released Tuesday from credit-reporting company TransUnion. Delinquency numbers are expected to continue to improve as unemployment slowly declines. (For its numbers, TransUnion uses a random sample of 27 million records from its database.)
"It's good progress, but we are by no means out of the woods yet," says Steve Chaouki, group vice president in TransUnion's financial-services business unit. In a more normal market, 60-day delinquencies would be in the 1.5% to 2% range, he says.
High housing inventory, along with high unemployment, will likely add up to continued depressed home prices in the year ahead in many markets, says Nichole Jordan, banking and securities industry practice leader for Grant Thornton, an accounting and business advisory firm.
"It's going to take several years to work through the excess inventory," she says.
Ms. Jordan and others are looking to 2012 for anything resembling a recovery in housing. Even then, it's going to be a long journey to stabilization; it historically takes five to seven years for prices to stabilize after a deep correction, Ms. Jordan says.
"Realistically, you're not going to see home prices appreciate next year," says Jason Kopcak, head of whole loans at financial-services firm Cantor Fitzgerald. In fact, many in the industry are expecting prices to fall another 10% next year on a national basis, he says. RealtyTrac's Mr. Sharga says the national decline could be around 5%. Other economists are expecting prices to remain flat.
Next year "is going to be a wash, in terms of any meaningful recovery, and we're looking toward 2012," said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, during a conference call with reporters. And that's assuming there are no other major problems or delays to contend with, he says.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703518604576014011451160994.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_personalfinance#printMode
Mike,
What are your thoughts on the local/regional market?
"Ms. Jordan and others are looking to 2012 for anything resembling a recovery in housing."
hence my initial take that if Immungton didn't lose value by 2012, it was unlikely to after 2012.
there are outlier risks of course.
Revolution, riots, nuclear war,
end times, rapture, zombie outbreak.
however, the RE Bubble popped in 2008, i figured it owuld take 5 years to work through.
now that said, some of the real workout has been papered over.
I/O mortgages are currently cheaper then 30 year mortgages. Anyone in an I/O can tread water in this environment for a long time.
Option ARMS are the same way.
we have a dispute on how many of these are in the Area, i cited WaPo, someone else cited federal reserve. I hate to dispute Fed numbers. But certainly FL, CA, NV, AZ are awash in those.
until rates renormalize, we can't tell what the real situation is.
reecon says
"My church tried to buy a short sale duplex on Arlington Blvd a few weeks ago and were blown away by investors"
http://franklymls.com/AR7466810
was it this one?
i looked at it, seemed kind of F'd up. a SFH center stair colonial has to be goofy inside if it's a duplex.
I'm looking for something older. Obsolete. quaint style though. Nice brick, wood floors, fireplace.
there would be better deals if rates were higher and the banks were forced to sell inventory.
instead they are holding stuff off market, trying to manipulate it.
"Pat said...
Option ARMS are the same way.
we have a dispute on how many of these are in the Area, i cited WaPo, someone else cited federal reserve."
Im not sure we do have a "dispute".
Back in 05 & 06 WAPO cited "alot" in this area in large part because there were a lot. By 07 & 08 & 09 we cited the fed (which did a very extensive analysis, by area, by type, time til reset, credit score of applicants, initial rate, reset rate, etc, etc, etc). This fed data showed one of the reasons this area (particularly the immunozones) did well is that by 07-08&09, the majority of those 05 & 06 toxic loans were refied, sold, etc, into fixed products such that there were only a few hundred left in the prime areas (hence their reputation as immunington & immundria).
This is entirely consistent between the WAPO and fed data, and is further confirmed by all of our experience here in that there has been no such "tsunami" and prices in most areas are stagnant or rising.
Now, I say that, because thats what we know what happened here (and discussed ad nauseaum) on this blog. Its quite possible that you Pat do have separate WAPO information that indicates this area (and the immunozones) STILL, NOW have a bunch of toxic loans. If so, please, by all means share it with us, as we would welcome the information.
That said, my recollection is that you have nothing recent to contradict the fed data, and you dont accept the fed data because it tells you a story you dont like. Again, maybe you have something we dont have, but otherwise, im quite sure there is no "dispute" -- im quite sure, you are just wrong.
depressing numbers to say the least-
Arl
2010 $500,000
2009 $466,500
2008 $445,000
screwed pretty hard by waiting.
Reecon
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-30/home-prices-in-u-s-will-bounce-along-the-bottom-case-says-tom-keene.html
"“If I were betting even odds, I’d bet that we don’t have much further decline, but that we bounce along the bottom,” Case, a retired professor of economics at Wellesley College, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview on “Surveillance Midday” with Tom Keene. “If you gave me 2-to-1 odds, I’d bet they go down.” "
My understanding is 30Kof the price rise was due to the $8K Buyers bribe. People overvalued the incentives. If that is the case locally, the property values went up 2.5% a year.
Not much.
The issues are what Macro-Economic Stimulus is there, and what Regional forces are in play?
DoD is cutting. The GOP is unlikely to spend money in DC or NoVa.
Will the GOP vote for another $8K buyers bribe? Will the Fed do another QE? Will Energy prices keep rising?
And cheap interest just puts a bandage on a problem. If low interest were the solution Japan would be a Paradise.
Look, I'm lookin at properties selling in the High 200's and low 300's that sold a few years before for 500K.
How many people are underwater, but servicing those mortgages? How many are bleeding reserves?
I don't think it's healthy out there, Obama bought off on Neo-Conservative economics, so we are really in the McCain administration.
MM,
I'm not so sure you were "screwed pretty hard by waiting." I was tracking the smallish 2-3 bedroom brick houses in 22201, 22203, 22205, and 22207 for the better part of 4 years and this is definitely the cheapeast they've been since 2005. I'm sure what you're seeing is simply the mix of houses being sold and not price increases. I'm also pretty sure that prices across all tracts are down over the past couple years. The difference has been that the buyer who was going to spend $720k on a small brick house in 22207 2 years ago is instead getting a slightly larger 4 bedroom, updated house in 22205 this year.
I do believe that the bottom is very close to being in though. I'm not bullish, but I'm not particularly bearish either.
My $0.02
http://franklymls.com/DC7357502
assessed at $356K, listed at 260K.
sells for 160K after 165DOM
i bet that last post i did showws as a flip in 4 months
Pat If you want to buy a duplex, triplex or quadraplex with wood floors and fireplaces and a quaint feel to it in the high 200Ks to low 300Ks, an increase in interest rates might yield better deals but not for the type of property you want. It is not so much about the price as the scarcity of what you want. I have been looking at duplexes and the horizontal triplexes and quadraplexes since 2004/2005. You can find properties like that in DC but as I said you would have a lot to deal with tenant landlord not to mention the permitting process and related building issues in the city. This is not just hearsay on my part, I have experienced it. The type of housing you want exists mostly in close in areas like Arlington, Alexandria and Falls Church. The rest of Virginia suburbs developed more as single houses, apartment complexes and townhouse communities. I have seen what you want in Addison Heights in Arlington, but they were not originally built as duplexes. They were large single family houses which were turned into apartments, generally in the 1940s and 1950s. They retain their charm. I have also seen a few in Old Town Alexandria and in a small area off Duke St. They are generally any where from $600K to $1 million because of their cache and the cash flow they generate. If they become short sales, foreclosure or fall in value, there will still be investors competing with you because tenants like this type of building and will pay a premium rent for the units. You may be better off either finding one of the generic duplexes in Arlington or Alexandria and then add your own charm. Many of the high end condos in Arlington and Alexandria now have ventless gas fireplaces, and you could add those, some moldings and wood floors, although most of the older buildings have at least parquet floors. Second option is the city but go well prepared.
reecon
I've been looking for duplexes in arlington, but they are like hens teeth. Most of them were split up a long time ago with party wall agreements. Pity, because they don't make sense as investments at that and it's a funny deal, whoever is on th eother side of the party wall, you are dependent upon to act in good faith.
Yeah DC is a whole kettle of fish too. It may be changing, but,
it's a challenge. i've been
looking in DC, seen some potentials, but, until i can find a real estate mentor in DC, i'm a little uneasy getting anything with tenants.
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