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Monday, December 20, 2010
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45 comments:
Hey guys; the wife and I unloaded our house a couple of years ago before the market really took a thumping and have been renting it out. We're prepping to buy next year. One thing that's puzzling to me: Frankly and Redfin aren't showing everything that's listed as available by, for example, the Long and Foster site. Are the L&F listings, ahem, not completely accurate, or can a house be on the market but not on those sites?
That is a good question. I get alerts from several sites and some arrive 24hrs earlier than others. I don't know if L&F is refusing to play fair.
Pat-
The numbers CS comes out with each month are not inflation adjusted. The article mentions it uses this series (it is the series that only goes to 1987). CS also created an index that goes back 100+ years, which is inflation indexed, but they do not regularly update this index.
I agree with your conclusion that prices will likely go down next year (although I think 5-10% vs. 10-15%), I just think this is because houses will be very cheap nationally not that there is a lot of air left in their prices.
All-
Construction really is starting to pick up at the end of the orange line, I was driving this weekend and noticed that Pulte homes is planning on creating a new complex near Vienna This complex is supposed to have ~2500 residential units. This is the 3rd ~1000+ person complex off of Lee Hwy in the 2 miles between Vienna and Dunn Loring that is supposed to open next year or the year after. I am really glad that builders are thinking ahead and realized that this area is already starting to have a shortage of housing and are planning accordingly.
hb,
I LIKE shortages! I would guess that there is a strong belief that demand will be there. If nothing else, builders have been recently reminded of putting the cart before the horse. Some had remembered the lesson of the early 90's and only optioned land this go-around.
I also saw a number of active listings elsewhere that were not available on frankly.
Housebuyer,
MetroWest in Fairlee/Vienna was supposed to be available back in 2007/2008, but Pulte had to delay it and modify their plans (more commercial and fewer residential units) once the market started falling. That the delay had to be extended till 2011/2012,tells us how much the market had slowed.
tedk-
I agree I think the three areas I am talking about were originally planned to come out a few years ago. I fully understand the situation was very bad, but I am impressed that they are all starting at the same time and expected to come to the market pretty soon.
VA-
We are clearly on the opposite sides of wanting supply. Seeing that you are a landlord and own many homes a shortage is good for you. Seeing I have no properties a glut is good for me :)
hb,
Yes, mixed feelings on my side. A sign of a good regional economy = good. Supply increasing = bad for me.
hb,
Something just came to mind. I have a property in Falls Church (FX CTY) that I bought in 2002 just because of the land value.
The development (Hillwood Square) is very low density and zoned/planned for highrise. I can't remember how many acres they have, but alot of it is vacant.
During the go-go days there were some good offers from developers. The residents thought (foolishly) that the numbers would continue up. I think we needed 2/3 to approve a sale.
People have long since changed their opinion on a sale. Perhaps we will start seeing offers again.
See, I can find the silver lining.
VA-
Yay for a silver lining. If their are multiple acres of usable land I bet you are correct that you will start seeing offers again soon. I imagine a lot of money could be made turning it into either townhouses or condos.
hb,
I believe it's 18acres. All zoned highrise. There are something like 100 or 130 units. I can't remember because I put it on the back-burner a few yrs ago. So, yes that is something good to think about.
For anyone looking for signs that the economy is improving, I have heard recently of several people getting bonuses (word?) for the first time in 4 yrs (based on meeting/beating their "numbers). I also heard first year salaries for new attorneys have been bumped back up.
All hearsay and a very small sample. Still good news. I have to shut up. Too much good news for me lately has me acting in an obnoxious manner.
Regarding local economy --- there won't be any salary increases and bonuses for federal workers, I think that will affect GSEs as well.
Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini shells out 5.5Million for an appartment.
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20101217/REAL_ESTATE/101219866#
Contrarian indicator that housing has hit a peak???
309K assessed, 99K sold
Assessed 330K, sells 290K, gorgeous I suspect somebody dropped serious coin fixing it, and flopped.
nice places, even if the first would be called "Dumpy"....
The first one really locks the price floors on dumpy property through the area.
All
I think it's a matter of location, i think PW, FQ, LO, have worked out most of the foreclosures and shorts, now it's a lot of folks in Fairfax who are still hoping for a miracle
and finally a bit of motion.
I think the jump of mortgage rates has moved fencesitters in both directions. If you can't sell this year, it may be worse next year. If you can buy this year, it's about as good as it's ever been, so, move those rate locks now, before they expire.
now that said, i think that and the lifting of the foreclosure moratorium has a real benefit in terms of clearance.
Pat-
Both of those properties are impressive. The first place looks like it could be fixed up at a reasonable price assuming no structural problems. It wasn't pretty, but I have seen worse.
You are right the second property looks nice and someone spent a lot of money to make it look that way.
Pat, that second one is interesting. It sold for $315K in 2005 per the DC website and apparently has been rented (no homestead deduction). I think the owner made some bad choices on some renos (and it looks DIY) (original features are very pretty), but that with some paint to make the woodwork match that in the rest of the house, it would look nicer--floors could be finished, and other changes could be made. But I never would have predicted it would have sold for that little.
pat,
Why didn't you go for the 99K one? Seems right up your alley.
Cheryl
I really liked the first one, but
what i really want is something about that size with a little more land, so we can garden.
I also figure, if there is one like that, there are a dozen.
I'm sort of stuck, my brother is getting divorced, i can buy his POS house for 230K, and do a flip, for 350, which is unheard of.
internally it's fine, but the place looks like shit. 30 days of fixup.
but his PITA soon to be ex-wife is really slowing up the process.
cheryl
I'd love to buy the place across the street from the first one.
Nice Art-deco look, larger land.
quadplex.
fix it up a bit and it would be awesome.
taxed 410K sells 170K
this was nice....
Optimism in action
sold 2 months ago, quick fix up and
then they want 120K more?
Gruntled - I can't speak to L&F though I have seen properties on other sites that don't show up in Frankly Search. I do find that if I feed in the individual listing numbers they show up eventually. I don't know what's up with that. Have you tried feeding in individual listing tracking numbers?
Pat - Individual tastes vary, but like you, I really like the reno on the 290K property. I have a thing for exposed brick and stone. I was totally unimpressed by the 99K property and as for the location.... I walk around in that neighborhood by myself but all my acquaintances say that i am a future-police-blotter-statistic. I wouldn't want to spend the night there.... But if that doesn't bother you the 21st ST property you posted has really interesting potential (yes I realize it sold). I'm guessing that if gas prices continue their precipituous climb and stay there those Anacostia neighborhoods will undergo some serious gentrification in less than ten years.
pat,
I see that flip going pretty fast. I don't know the area but recent sales are comparable in price and many people are long-time owners (stable).
I saw one bank owned.
col banks fuding losses at auctions
is this happening here?
will rates rise help cash buyers
pat and contrarian,
All of this points to higher rents:).
I thought I read that the vast majority of boomer's plan to "age in place". I read a study to this effect last year.
NY and NJ courts are messed up. I gather there is a requirement that a VP sign these affidavits? I can see naming a bunch a lawyers VP's to get this done. I'd bet unemployed/retired attnys would find such a job a cake-walk.
As to high bids. That had always been my experience in the past. I thought it had to do with mortgage insurance or recourse. I have seen some reo's go on the market within a week.
It all boils down to the actual number of shadow inventory and the eventual absorption rate.
While we have some new stuff in the pipeline here, I wonder about some of these harder hit areas,
An re analyst on CNBC yesterday seemed bullish. It seems very easy to see oposite opinions. This guy sited Apts and hotels as leading the way. Nationally things are up across the board with certain metro areas in high demand for office space. Retail will continue to suffer as big-box stores are downsizing and will continue that trend due to internet sales.
Pat I am not sure where your brother's house is located but it might make sense to wait to buy it as a practice renovation. Once you have gained that local experience, you will understand costs, timing, who to hire, what you can do yourself and how to pick materials with market appeal. When sold it will give you the funds and experience to move to one of the projects you would like. Do buy carefully in those Old City neighborhoods as they still have a high level of crime and a good deal of nuisance issues, including the three Ls of loitering, littering and loudness. I can't see you doing well with that.
The whole baby boomer die off seems to be a bit of a red herring to me. Yes, there will be a (relatively) large segment of the population that is dying, but its not as if we were LOSING population as they are in Japan. In fact, here is the population projections for the next 40 years.
2010: 310,232,863
2020: 341,386,665
2030: 373,503,674
2040: 405,655,295
2050: 439,010,253
So seriously, whats the doomer message here?
Doomers -- "The baby boomers are aging!!! Lets wait til 2040 when they are all dead and then snap up all their homes!!!"
Yes, yes, wait til 2040 when you and the 95 million MORE people there will be in the USA can then go and snap up those homes in prime locations...Brilliant!!!
Anon,
I read the entire Census Bureau reprot/projections as well. Contrarian's statements are so full of holes it reminds me of swiss cheese.
On another note, local rents UP 8% due to lack of vacancies. I just caught the tail end of the report on channel 5 so I don't have their source. This clearly mirrors my experience. I even got a postcard from an agent with a client looking for a rental in a complex where I own.
I find it hilarious that contrarian suggests renting until 2030 - 2050. No mention of immigration or boomer kids and grandkids - only death, death, death.
Census report says growth may slow, but it is still growth!
reecon
There are negatives to city life, but, there are positives.
Frankly Arlington is a nice mix, with highly functional government.
my brothers place is a 4/2 split level ranch house from teh 60's
near the 29,50, circle. he's walkable to the Home Depot.
smallish lot, and he removed the pool.
cute cottage
sold for 380 during the bubble in05,
went under the hammer at 192.
Almost exactly 50% off, and walkable to huntington ave metro.
victorian
sold for 498K in the bubble under
contract near 275K.
down 40%....
pat,
Do you really want to wait on your brother's place when other opportunities seem available?
Perhaps buy something now, fix it up and then rent it while you fix-up your brother's place?
Cheryl
"Perhaps buy something now, fix it up and then rent it while you fix-up your brother's place?"
not enough capital,
well he is trying to get a settlement conference in january, and if they can't agree to a settlement,
his lawyer will ask in january for a forced sale right away.
nice rowhouse
sells for 262, assessed at 399K
33% down seems like it needs some work, but definitely in the cute but dumpy.
huh?
no sales since 2001 but the assssed is all over the place.
sold for 194K
if i could i'd suggst if its to be eliminated apply that to interest expenses across the board.
Pat-
Isn't that a pretty standard assessment for a low cost property in southern Arlington. The ratio of land vs house cost may be odd, but the total assessment went up dramatically from 92K in 1997 to 319K in 2007 before the market crashed and it came back to 214K. I thought this was pretty standard movements for cheap properties south of 50, am I wrong?
Contrarian-
I would love if the mortgage deduction went away, but I think it is unlikely to happen soon and if it does happen I assume it will be slowly phased out. Although seeing that at some point they are going to need to raise taxes I hope they do it by removing deductions rather than increasing tax rates.
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