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Thursday, December 16, 2010
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34 comments:
Slick mapping tool from the NY Times: Mapping America: Every City, Every Block
Check out the readers' maps links for interesting maps folks are sharing (e.g., shaw is the new dupont)
newbie-
I like the NY times mapping. It is very interesting to see how different areas that are one block apart can be.
The area I live is 44% White & 41% Asian, but one block north is 71% vs. 15%
The real estate agent that figures out how to capitalize on that map information is going to be rich.
Pretty much confirmed my own independent findings when I moved here in 2006 and was looking for the exact same data but it was nearly impossible to find.
I sometimes look back on what we were discussing here, one, two, or even three years ago, and as luck would have it, here is one of those "option ARM tsunami" fearmongering sessions I referenced the other day:
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2008/12/northern-virginia-bits-bucket-12152008.html
Most amusing, watch how Contrarian (now deleted) and John Fountain keep poking CRT's backside with a stick, until he finally turns around, goring both of them and they run away whimpering.
Also interesting, look back on the interview with Whitney Tilson. One of the reasons he misread the future effect of the option arm tsunami is he didnt listen to his own remarks that they were "already defaulting at an extrordinarily high rate". Remember Mr. Tilson, 2008 defaults are 2010/2011 resets that now cannot happen.
One thing Tilson did get correct -- when asked about what the upcoming mortgage turmoil would do to the stock market (again, this was Dec 2008), Tilson said:
"Actually we're the most bullish we've been in 10 years of managing money. And the reason is because the stock market, for the first time I can say this, in years, has finally figured out how bad things are going to be. And the stock market is forward looking. And with U.S. stocks down nearly 50 percent from their highs, we're actually finding bargains galore. We think corporate America's on sale,"
Oh good Contrarian, you are back!
You ran away, err, left the other day and might not have seen my question.
Out of curiosity, when you said this...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
"Contrarian said...This "shadow inventory" will soon come back onto the market, lowering the value of other homes, and ultimately the value of banks holding the mortgages.
When the next tsunami of foreclosures begins (in the next few months, along with a collapse in the stock market), it would not surprise me to see bank holidays (closures) lasting for long periods of time. 4/1/10 3:42 PM"
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Which tsunami were you referring to? Alt A or Prime?
Oh and Contrarian, thanks for providing us with the National picture on foreclosures.
Realtytrac just came out with our local picture (# of foreclosures by area, Nov 2010 vs Nov 2009 vs Nov 2008):
Arlington
2008 -- 91
2009 -- 81
2010 -- 47
Alexandria
2008 -- 82
2009 -- 80
2010 -- 71
Fairfax
2008 -- 950
2009 -- 518
2010 -- 524
Loudoun
2008 -- 430
2009 -- 265
2010 -- 217
PWC
2008 -- 902
2009 -- 617
2010 -- 489
Buh bye foreclosures!!!
Your contrarian instincts also told you to say this, days before the stock market hit a multiple year bottom. At the time, MM is shocked as the DOW hits 6652, and you reply:
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
"Are you surprised? I guess denial is a wonderful coping tool, eh MM? BTW, the Dow was up around 9000 at that time. Others also suggested I was way off base.
The question now, is:
At what point, if ever, will TedK, The Anonymous, MM, etc., accept the obvious?
And, if for some reason it has not become obvious, why not? :-)
Have you all thought about starting a 12 step program and calling it A-D-D Anonymous?
Members would include those who chose to simply sit there during the greatest collapse of wealth in history and watch their Assets Deflate Daily.
Sad, but true. So sad. People choose to be victims, martyrs, instead of dealing with life on life's terms. Truly amazing.
3/5/09 4:47 PM"
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Looks to the rest of us that your "contrarian" instincts are severely malfunctioning. Maybe its sunspots...
And how about this one:
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
"Contrarian said...
As I said yesterday, I stated in January that the top would occur in the next few months, which occurred in April."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Another swing and a whiff for your "contrarian" instincts.
Oh, and please please tell me you "didnt write" these quotes above. I always enjoy impeaching someones statements, and would love nothing more than to bury you.
Then again, you will just run away as you always do. Too bad I cant get you on the witness stand...sigh.
I just got back from Sterling. Driving down Sterling Blvd today is a night and day experience from 2 or 3yrs ago. What a stunning change.
Gone are the foot-high lawns strewn with trash. Now there are rows of well kept homes. Investors have transformed the area out there. Blighted homes were purchased at steep discounts, renovated and sold to new owners at prices 30-50% off peak.
Private enterprise at it's best.
VA-
It really is great to see when the private system works :)
contrarian,
Do you want to borrow a white flag? Don't you think it appropriate to at least admit your timing is off?
I can't imagine going through life in such a frame of mind. How many years have you believed the end is near?
You might be proven right in the end (whenever that is - I could be dead and buried) but what about living one's life? I can't tell you how many of my family members have died very suddenly (ages 16-64). The majority of my close relatives have died young.
Are you going to make some revisions or stick to your doom and gloom while insisting you have been right all along?
MIND-BLOWING!
Affidavits required? Ohhh, noooo.
Contrarian,
I take it you're guarding your cash stuffed mattress in the interim?
My $0.02
contrarian has said he is invested in t-bills. About 18 months ago he told me that gold was about to collapse. (I had always assumed he was in precious metals.)
So, contrarian sits in t-bill at 0.01%, while the Fed is determined to destroy what little wealth he has with inflation and dollar devaluation.
No wonder he is bitter.
contrarian,
I fail to see the relevance of your claim (selling your home at the peak and awaiting the bottom) to your incorrect past predictions.
Were you wrong about everything you predicted or not?
And let's face it, yours were not predictions but statements of certainty.
"Contrarian said...You mean because the S&P went a whole seven points higher recently, Anon? Seven whole points?"
Try 23 points.
S&P hit 1217 on 4/23/10
vs
S&P hit 1240 on 12/14/10
"Contrarian said...If you are trying to make some point, as usual, I missed it, because you really 't make any sense."
Lets try again then. You said the "top" was in "April". In case you have difficulty following:
Top = highest point
April = 4th month of the year
December = 12th month of the year
So again, which was "top"
S&P hit 1217 on 4/23/10 (hint, this isnt it)
OR
S&P hit 1240 on 12/14/10
Good luck...
Va_Investor said...
Private enterprise at it's best.
housebuyer said...
It really is great to see when the private system works :)
none of that would've happened without the gov't bail out. but keep patting on your own shoulders and thinking the community's all grateful for you investors.
Sorry MM but I don't get your point. Could you tie up the connection between the gov't bail-out and investors ridding areas of blight? Is your problem with investors making money (capitalism)? And how does this relate to a bail-out?
Had the gov't taken over and renovated these homes it probably would have cost the taxpayer (us) 800K per house.
Now we have stable areas, well kept homes, owners that can afford their payments and an increasing tax base rather than a vortex sucking more and more nearby properties down.
Do you not recall Counties unable to get the lawns cut amid complaints of rats and vermin? Just the grass for crying out loud! Did you see the boarded/vacant homes lining Sterling Blvd?
Investors made money? What a travesty. How can this type of thing happen in the US of A?
Now, where does the bail-out come in?
"Private enterprise at it's best."
Not wanting to bust on Cheryl, who I totally respect. One can make some
cynical comments about how Goldman Sachs was borrowing from TARP while Lying about it or the number of foreign banks the Fed was helping or
the massive market interventions by the FED and Treasury.
Folks
I'm lookin at some pretty cute Semi-detached homes, the problem is they have been sold as subdivided parcels.
I'm really concerned that you end up with some dick as a immediate neighbor and they let their half rot and you are stuck with them.
without name-calling.
What do people think of this article in the local context?
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/banks-holding-onto-foreclosed-homes-to-force-buyers-to-overpay/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+IrvineHousingBlog+Irvine+Housing+Blog
Anon
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/corelogic-house-prices-declined-19-in.html
check out the graph.
what some people are calling a massive recovery is merely a ripple of dead-cat bounce.
pat,
That was my concern. You could argue the same might happen with a TH, but TH's usually have HOA's that can keep things relatively under control.
I don't know how much of a worry it should be. You can have a bad situation even with a detached neighbor if there is no HOA. I've been there.
I looked at a bunch of duplexes down by Huntington Metro back in the mid-80's. I didn't give much thought to the adjacent property, but these would have been rentals (it still matters to some extent).
If you are in a good/decent area you will probably be ok.
Pat, I thought you were also considering buying both halves of a duplex, and living in one of the halves. Is this wrong?
"Pat said...what some people are calling a massive recovery is merely a ripple of dead-cat bounce."
So who here is calling it a "massive" recovery? Have you forgotten my prediction of of stagnation (Case shiller between 170-190) for years?
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=4787878578920468587&postID=8363529441498572117
Of course, the bottom (CS 165 -- May 2009) is long gone and likely never ever seen again. Still, dont mistake my posts here as some sort of unbridled optimism (remember how I called out Robert for his v shaped recovery which fell flat).
All I am doing here is recounting the abject, even moronic pessimism that was (and still sometimes is) a staple of this blog.
Anon
well our views ourn't that radically different. you think a long period of stagnation, I think another 10-15% down, then a slow rise up. Not a giant difference.
Ace says:
"Pat, I thought you were also considering buying both halves of a duplex, and living in one of the halves. Is this wrong?"
that's my idea, but, finding undivided duplexes seems like madness. as undivided duplexes, they command a lower price then spearately titled facilities.
MM I might have to disagree with your point that without gov't bailouts, investors would not have been able to buy foreclosed and short sale properties, renovate them and either flip or rent them. Without the bailout, the prices may have fallen faster, and the lower prices would still appeal to investors and flippers. Probably the same outcome or more.
Pat You have said that your plan is to live in a duplex, triplex or quad plex and then rent out the other parts. I thought at the time I should remind you that as a landlord you really don't want to be that close to your tenants. If you think it is annoying to run from Arlington to Woodbridge to fix a leaky toilet, wait until your tenants see you each and everyday and can remind you of all the problems they have. You will also fall into the trap of being friendly with them which makes it harder to push for rent payments and taking care of the place. Since you like to rent, why don't you just buy one side of a duplex and rent it out and wait until the other side becomes available. With the money you save from renting, you could buy the other side of the duplex when it becomes available and then try living next door to the tenant. If that doesn't work out, you still have a valuable investment property or you could sell it and buy a house that you could renovate with green technology.
VA & Reecon-
I agree. The only way the government bailout helped investors was the $8K housing credit helped push up prices so investors sold for more money. I am pretty sure even without the 8K credit investors would have done the same thing although made slightly less profit. Even if investors couldn't sell the places they easily could have rented them out for a nice return
MM,
Care to answer my questions from yesterday? I am interested.
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