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Tuesday, November 30, 2010
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43 comments:
I was surprised I expected CS to show a slight decline this month, but it was up by 0.3%. Although it is a little odd the total index is now significantly above the indexed value of all three of the price ranges.
Jeremy-
Goodluck today and I am glad that most of the work looks like it was done yesterday.
"HB said...I was surprised I expected CS to show a slight decline this month, but it was up by 0.3%."
Surprised me too as I expected the first of many monthly declines. I had us down -0.4% MOM, down to 187.5 index value overall. (I will repost my 2 year predictions when Harriet posts the case shiller entry).
Still, the 2nd derivative (i.e. YOY prices) continues to shrink. Last month, prices were up 4.8% YOY, this month we are up 4.7% YOY.
I think we go YOY negative by mid spring, 2011. However, with each passing month of prices slowly inching up, the idea that we will ever breach the March 2009 bottom of 165 look more and more like a pipedream.
listed 4/15/2009 (when CS was at all time low?) for $879,000
sold 11/29/2010 for $679,900
it took a year and a half for the seller to agree with the market.
6% off listing (and 90% of tax value) at DOM 11 for 2-lvl 3/2/0 rambler?
argh!!!
MM, it's the classic location, location, etc. thing, isn't it? Not good (in most buyers' minds) to be right on a busy street, but sellers forget that they got the house for less because of the same factor.
What I don't get is why people let a house sit so long then suddenly drop it 30%. Why not drop it earlier, a bit less? IIRC, they also put in new kitchen cabinets while it was on the market, to try to get it sold (rather than drop the price). Crazy.
novice here with a question.... We purchased in May of this year but the interest rates have gone down a whole percent! I know we have a mortgage with no penalty to payoff - if that applies. The mort has been sold off like 3 times and finally on a fannie. I swear we should refinance but husband says it will cost much more in fees than it is worth...anyone have any comments, calculators, experience in this or just snide remarks
Ronnie,
Try this calculator:
refinance?
Thanks Ace!! I think my husband will like this calculator. Anyone used someone for a refi that they would recommend?
OK contra i'll bite... I see nothing to back up your statement other than federal salary freeze..but then again that doesn't matter either.
Ronnie,
I closed last fall and just refinanced in September. I shaved a half a point off the interest and also got rid of PMI so the break even point was something ridiculous like 18 months given the cost to re-fi. Definitely do the math, it's probably worth it at a whole point.
MM,
That second house is much like the one level I posted the other day that's almost in Falls Church. It would seem to imply that the one I posted would need to go closer to the bottom of the range I estimated (closer to $475k).
We shall see!
My $0.02
"Contrarian said...Had enuf yet?"
So lets see, all of Contrarian's parade of horrors are true today, as they were yesterday, as they were last month, as they were last year.
And yet, despite that, home prices in the DC area continue to rise.
Its funny, last year at this time, Contrarian was trying to convince us that the collapse of Dubai and or Dubai World would somehow, someway, be the lynchpin that finally brought down the DC real estate market.
Next year, it will be the bailout of Spain, tension in Turkey, and whatever other crisis du jour he can scrounge up.
Sadly for him, none of those crisies has been the lynchpin that brings down the DC housing market, and its unclear if any of them ever will. Still, as long as this blog is still here, im sure Contrarian will be here as well telling us that imminent doom is just around the corner...glug, glug, glug, glug, glug, glug....
Im delusional huh? Ok, lets have a reality check here. Yes I said DC Case Shiller will likely not go below 165 again. In fact, here is my prediction for the next few years:
2010...............MOM..........YOY
Sep 187.5.........-0.4%.......+3.8%
Oct 186.0.........-0.8%.......+3.3%
Nov 184.0.........-1.1%.......+2.7%
Dec 181.0.........-1.6%.......+1.2%
2011
Jan 177.0.........-2.2%.......-0.2%
Feb 173.5.........-1.9%.......-1.7%
Mar 171.5.........-1.2%.......-2.2%
Apr 170.5.........-0.6%.......-5.0%
May 171.0.........+0.3%.......-6.3%
Jun 172.0.........+0.5%.......-7.4%
Jul 173.5.........+0.9%.......-7.6%
Aug 175.0.........+0.9%.......-7.0%
Sep 176.0.........+0.5%.......-6.1%
Oct 175.5.........-0.3%.......-5.6%
Nov 174.5.........-0.6%.......-5.2%
Dec 173.0.........-0.9%.......-4.4%
2011
Jan 172.0.........-0.6%.......-2.8%
Feb 171.5.........-0.3%.......-1.2%
Mar 171.0.........-0.2%.......-0.3%
Apr 172.0.........+0.6%.......+0.9%
May 173.0.........+0.6%.......+0.9%
Jun 174.5.........+0.9%.......+1.4%
Jul 176.5.........+1.1%.......+1.7%
Aug 178.0.........+0.8%.......+1.7%
You think I am delusional, OK then show us the "truth" of where DC prices will go as per Case Shiller.
Specifically, you said prices will be down (at minimum) 75% from the peak. This means you think Case Shiller will hit 62.5 sometime in the future.
Contrarian, why dont you put your money where your mouth is and put together a price sequence like I did. SHOW ME, SHOW US ALL HOW WE GET DOWN TO 62.5 here in DC.
A constant feeling of imminent doom is a clear indicator of a major depression (but not of the economic variety).
In fact, let me make one more "prediction" that I am 100% certain will come true.
As we all know, Contrarian will spin, deflect, lie, run away, tangentially attack, etc. so as to not answer a question. Thus I feel confident Contrarian will not "fill in the blanks" on this chart below.
Case Shiller values - DC
2010
Sep 188.8
Oct _____
Nov _____
Dec _____
2011
Jan _____
Feb _____
Mar _____
Apr _____
May _____
Jun _____
Jul _____
Aug _____
Sep _____
Oct _____
Nov _____
Dec _____
2011
Jan _____
Feb _____
Mar _____
Apr _____
May _____
Jun _____
Jul _____
Aug _____
OK so there here it is Contrarian -- something you have always wanted -- a chance to prove me wrong.
I say you will do anything, I repeat ANYTHING so as not to fill in the blanks above. So again Contrarian, heres your chance to prove me wrong. Will you fill in the blanks and prove me wrong, or will you do as I predict and continue to tapdance around my question to you.
So Contrarian, whats it gonna be?
"contrarian said...
Anon,
I am not foolish enuf to list 'future' monthly data."
Thats it my puppet... I predicted you would tap dance around the question and thus far I am right.
Keep it up though...continue to entertain us...tap tap tippity tap tippity tap...
contrarian,
"implode"? Did we implode? You make alot of assumptions; not even predictions fgs.
If xyz WERE to occur, I would anticipate some affect. You fail to state what that affect would be (if, of course, xyz were to happen - implosion).
"Contrarian said...But, the back side of the hurricane is always the worst part. Got popcorn?"
Factually untrue, but whatever, we get your point. Say, why dont you put the "worst part" into something quantifyable, such as case shiller values 2010-2012.
Cmon contrarian, my little puppet, continue to tap dance around the question for us all. Dance puppet dance!!!
Anon,
I for one appreciate your persistence in calling Contrarian out. I know I would have tired long ago.
My $0.02
tax value $1,009,600
original listed 5/20/2010 $999,000
last 10/8/2010 $899,000
sold $848,000
it's on busy street, but 16% below tax is still unusual for an updated 5/4/1 colonial in N Arl. bad neighbor?
MM, is it really updated? From the photos, it still looks like a 2000 builder grade house to me. It's huge, which is why AV gave it a high assessed value, but then, the blue monster 10K sq. ft. foreclosure is nearby, and it hasn't sold yet. I think most Arlington buyers with $1 mill. to spend do not need 4500 square feet above ground, and would rather have fewer square feet, higher quality/newer features, and a quieter street, closer in.
oops - I meant "short sale" not "foreclosure."
Hey Jeremy - don't forget to update us. Hope you had a smooth closing.
Hey guys
DC just released their tax sale list, 1100 properties all indexed by SSL
Page and Lot. Great.
Any conventient way to spatially map these?
Also
Can anyone put together a spatial map of vacant property?
It would be good to know how much is really vacant in an area. I drive around at night and look, for just plain black windows around 10 PM.
Occupied units have some glow. Clocks, night lights, indicator lights, ....
It'd be nice to be able to identify them with less laborious tools.
Hey Ace,
Sorry so slow with the update, but we closed and I've been moving boxes most of the night. Things did not go smoothly though. The window sill repairs and electrical issues were still not completed for the 3PM walk through. In addition he is still convinced the pool pump works and refused to put any money into escrow for it (a complete reversal from what he led me to believe Monday). It was very tense, he stubbornly refused to go back to the settlement office for any changes to the HUD-1 (he signed everything at 11AM). I ended up with a hand-written contract that he will do what is necessary to make the pool pump "operational" when we open the pool in the spring. He never did finish a couple of the electrical issues (one outlet wired incorrectly and another wire run behind the wall to lamps above the bar not up to code/fire hazard).
It was a nightmare. My wife was crying at one point. The guy was a real sleazeball. To top it all off, when we came back from closing he had left a giant turd in the basement toilet with a ton of toilet paper to make sure it clogged. How classy is that?
My wife and I are normal, reasonable people, I swear. The deal came very close to not happening today. My agent had never seen anything like this guy before.
Jeremy,
First, congratulations, and I hope it will soon prove to be worth all the stress and aggravation--and much more enjoyable.
Second, that story is just shocking. What a pig.
Third, for what it's worth, I have friends at work who dealt with a similarly reneging seller. She was required by contract to make $800 worth of repairs but hope to slide by, and her agent didn't help matters. My friends held tough on principle and eventually won out. But sometimes it's just best to let it go. I hope the electrical stuff is easy and cheap to fix.
And, I hope your pool pump works next spring so that you never have to deal with that jerk again.
Jeremy I am glad you made it to settlement. Just for future reference for anyone on the board who buys during fall and winter months when pools and air conditioning can't be tested. You can do an addendum to the sales contract indicating that the seller is responsible if there are problems with the pool and air conditioning which could not be identified because testing was not possible due to the temperature. These addenda, like the entire contract, survive settlement. You will have much more leverage with the seller under these circumstances. If Jeremy did not have a pool addendum as part of his purchase contract, the handwritten contract from the seller will be much more difficult to enforce.
For MM The bad neighbor of the house on Sycamore St. is CVS Pharmacy and a tae kwan do studio. But there is a good barbecue joint in the shopping center across the street.
"contrarian said...
Here you go, Anon, Nenner says Dow below 5000 in three years."
From contrarian's article:
"Nenner believes that the current sun-spot activity is creating an electro-magnetic effect that is making humans always look on the bright side of things...
The favorable sun-spot activity will soon come to an end, and humans will begin to view the whole world as glass-half-empty. This, and other factors, such as a deflation crisis, will cause the Dow to plummet to 5,000"
Sunspots ehh? Sounds good to me! Glug, glug, glug, glug, glug, glug, glug!!!
Jeremy,
Many closings are nightmares (many aren't). There have been more than one occasion where the parties were in separate rooms.
Neat trick to sign early and not be there to face the music.
I could write a book of closing anectdotes, having done well over 1,000.
On a personal note, the sellers got in a physical fight at the settlement table once. Turns out the boyfriend was married and girlfriend discovered this at the table.
Anyway, I am into week three of the closing from hell. I am so pissed that I don't even want to talk about it.
Here Contrarian, here is a good source for you:
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/
This guy believes your precious elliott wave shows that dow will hit 1000 soon...
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2010/07/apocalypse-wave-has-begun.html
Oh, and he also believes Tom Brokaw sent him divine prophecy back in 1991...
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2009/02/18th-anniversary-of-my-vision.html
Oh yeah, he also believes he is the reincarnation of Jesus Christ, and that Vladamir Putin is the antichrist and is using the elliott wave to predict when the nuclear holocaust begins...
Still, he predicted the stock market peak back in 2007 so I guess he is a "credible" source for you too:
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2007/10/i-just-updated-my-article-regarding.html
Perhaps you, Prechter, Nenner, Hal Turner & this guy should all get together in a "masters of the universe" club and tell us sheeple what the future is really going to be like!
Dance faster contrarian, dance faster!
Just make sure you stay out of the sun.
As I recall you were predicting deflation up the wazoo, back when DOW was at 6600. How low has it really gone since then? I'll have to go check today's price.
...goes and checks...
(GASP!) Boy I'm glad I was buying gold and stocks since then.
Keep dancing, contrarian!
Meanwhile, you might want to sit down and list all the ways in which the government is trying to HYPERINFLATE us out of our troubles, which should be and is a HUGE headwind against deflation.
Then sit down and list each of your monthly bills that has gone up in the last 12-24 months, which if mine are any indication, are just about all of them starting with food, health insurance and health care.
Then sit down and try to list all the public corporations, or any other companies, that have abandoned profit growth, dividend growth, bonus growth, CEO salary growth, just to be altruistic, sympathetic to the struggling middle class, or to bring in more sales. So far I count none. Both Netflix and Microsoft's SQL Server product line, for example, also just raised their prices.
VA_investor, personally, I would buy a book with anecdotes called Closings From Hell and one called Weirdest Realtor Experiences. I'd be very interested in any of your stories you feel like writing about.
Ace,
Write a book? I can't even spell anecdote!
wow - a party with dancing too! Contra you're a little bit of a downer singing your gloom song. So conta why aren't you in Montana hording food and building a doom cave?
thanks 2cent - we're checking into a refi now. Trying to find a 4.25 rate.
VA invent - why not try?? it would probably be fun to write reliving it all.
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