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Monday, November 22, 2010
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20 comments:
speaking of FHA loans - does it make sense to put 20% down for a FHA loan - to avoid mortgage insurance but get an assumable 5% loan?
MM FHA is a government mortgage insurance program. You would have to pay an upfront premium and monthly premiums throughout the life of the loan. You could compare the costs of using FHA to the risk of selling your home at a lower price in the future because you did not have an assumable loan. There are many variables to control, but there is probably a good lender who could give you some advice.
Va Investor - I know about Whiteys but did not go there. My sons (who are probably more your age) used to go there after softball games. I have been to the new EAT restaurant that replaced it and thought it was pretty good. But for sitting back with my comprades and having a crabcake sandwich and a beer, nothing beats the Quarterdeck.
Anon
All markets have cycles.
in the 1950's Montgomery county was the sticks, and hillbillies lived north of Rockville.
Anacostia used to be very posh and people paid top dollar.
int eh 70's things changed.
by the 90's Anacostia was pennies.
now its the new edge of hipsterdom.
it isn't as clear cut as you would like it to be.
And if Gas Prices go back to $4/Gallon or $5/Gallon Fairfax and Loudon will start looking a lot less desirable.
PG hasn't had near the real estate inflation as PW.
Reecon
Whiteys is now Tallulas.
Pat,
I've done my time with both PG and PW. Bubble-wise they were very similar. The difference is that PG has more low-end inventory that bought it earlier in the downturn cycle of the bubble. PW still has some higher end stuff (relative, of course) that is experiencing some pain. However, I think they both exploded about the same amount on the upside.
$5/gal gas won't hurt Fairfax much. It's not as far out there as you seem to think. Though, it's a big enough county that there's elements of both, certainly.
Xpovos & Pat-
I agree with Xpovos. I would actually think some parts of Fairfax might benefit from high gas prices. Places like Vienna/McLean, which are close to the metro and Tysons would probably be more desirable with very high gas prices. The outer areas would probably be hurt, but most people are only using 1-3 gallons a day for commuting so maybe it would cost an extra ~$5/day or $1K/year. That could have an impact on housing prices, but probably not a big one.
I agree with housebuyer. It will take a lot more than $5/gallon to make a difference to Fairfax. The traffic is what dictates prices, not the distance. It will take me 20-45 minutes for my 9 mile commute to Tysons from the new house in Oakton, but less than 1 gallon of gas round trip.
Loudon County on the other hand and the ever-increasing tolls on the Greenway and DTR would worry me if I lived out toward Leesburg, even if I had a Prius.
reecon,
Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but say goodbye to the quarterdeck!
Pat -- thats kinda my point. Things change all the time, and if you refuse to accept those facts and stick with your pre-conceived ideas of what will happen, you will get burned.
As you said, "in the 1950's Montgomery county was the sticks, and hillbillies lived north of Rockville."
Thus, if in 1990 you refused to accept reality and instead waited for "hillbilly prices" to return to Rockville, you were going to be sorely mistaken.
You yourself have said that if the massive leg down in pricing doesnt hit prime areas of immunington by 2012, you may change your tune, and recognize, it aint gonna happen -- ever. Thats good. Thats what you should be doing.
Contrast that with Contrarian who will be saying "it just hasnt happened -- yet" in 2012, 2015, 2020, 2040, death...
Anon
It's hard to predict the future, one can only look at the past and analyze what makes sense.
The American west is littered with 19th century ghost town that played out when the mines went.
20th century Rural America is full of dying little towns. Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Dakotas..
All these towns were tied to the limits of horse transport and the labor requirements of agriculture.
Since the peak at maybe 1860 farm labor has been roaring downward.
That labor force and waves of immigrants went into the cities.
Now where are the future trends?
I am not so hopeful over the suburbs as what kills you isn't the gas for driving to work, it's the 50 errands that you need your car for. Bedroom communities where you drive to the starbucks, drive to the school, drive to the mall, are what eat up gas.
Prior to cheap energy, people lived in dense housing, so that busses and trolleys could be affordable.
we may see that return.
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/pyramid-scheme-lennox-scott.gif
One could reasonably model this pyramid as
Arlington/Alexandria (Ballston)
Fairfax (Vienna)
Loudon/Prince William (Woodbridge)
Stafford, Fauqier, (??)
Now the bottom tier has bounced, the middle tiers are stagnant and the top tiers still look good.
What matters beyond this is Interest rates, incentives, population flows, etc...
Pat Part of the old Whitey's building houses Tallulas and part of it houses the EAT Bar. Like I said I have been to the EAT Bar.
Newbie Yes, we heard about the end of the Quarterdeck on Friday. Next stop for us will probably be Thirsty Bernies, the Cowboy Cafe or the Forest Inn. There just aren't enough good dives left in Arlington
http://franklymls.com/AR7451060
now here's an interesting story.
Sells for 293K, assessed at 230K.
But, look at the tax info and sales record.
Bought in 99 for 110K by some spanish guy, sells in march 09 for 130K to
Bedeen and Barry Investments, then
flips 6 months later for 270K.
sells a year later for 293K. Including transaction costs, someone got out with their hide intact.
But what was that sale and flip for 130K, I suspect some dumb hispanic got suckered into signing stuff, he didn't understand, and it was a horrendous teaser mortgage.
Poor bastard.
Pat,
I wouldn't pin my future models on inflation exclusive to energy prices.
Oil production is riding high in the Dakotas, and natural gas is being extracted all over the U.S. at present.
What city dwellers should be more concerned about is the price of food, which is projected to rise here and worldwide.
Food prices will affect the suburbs as well. But I think they will disrupt urban dwellers a little more. The exurbans won't have as far to drive to Wal-Mart for cheaper bread and vegetables.
Harriett
Are you concerned about lower production causing food shortages, or increased demand for cellulose driving up prices?
At the end of the day, transporting food an extra 20 miles from Iowa, PA, Ohio, into DC won't be any big deal compared to Fairfax or Waldorf.
And given people can walk to a Bodega, corner store or even a marvelous market. It will get distributed. We attend 2 farmers markets here in Arlington.
So it's easy enough.
Now if you think People are going to grow little gardens in the suburban back yards, well, yeah, there is an advantage there.
I guess it's wether you think there will be energy inflation, food inflation or just plain old apocalpypse.
Pat,
No, a suburban garden is a nice bonus, but it doesn't feed a family.
I know that you like walking to the farmers' markets, which is great, but the farmers who attend have to use energy to produce that food. If those costs go up, you'll probably notice at some point.
There are a lot of variables - one is communications technology which is eating away at the need to live in dense proximity to one another.
I think long commutes are bad for one's health, the environment, and the landscape, but I'm hoping that other factors besides high energy prices intervene to change our habits.
Harriet Walmart is opening 4 stores in DC in the next 2 years. Maybe Walmart knows something too.
Reecon,
Cool!
Will Walmart, not Whole Foods, save the small farm and make America healthy?
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