Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
NAR on next year:Nationwide, homeowners can expect little, if any, increase in home values in 2011, the National Association of Realtors said in a forecast released Friday at the group’s annual conference in New Orleans.And it will take another two years to clear the foreclosures and short sales on the market, said Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist, at a news conference. NAR forecasts that home values nationwide will increase just 0.7% in 2011, not a “measurable meaningful change,” Yun said. In 2010, home prices will rise 0.1%, compared with 2009, according to NAR.Still, five years from now, when home values have recovered and mortgage interest rates likely are higher, “many people will look back to 2010 and say ‘I should have bought a home back then,’” Yun said.
newbie-That clearly paints a bad picture for house prices. If NAR can't even paint an optimistic picture you know housing is in trouble. Also seeing that housing is already up a few percent according to CS this year I guess they are saying that home prices have fallen over the last few months or will fall now through the end of the year.
Have to laugh at the last paragraph. They always create a silver lining. "Hurry up--go put in an offer before Thanksgiving 2010, or you'll be kicking yourself forever", not, "you have about four years to decide whether you want to buy."
Ace-When NAR says housing values will have recovered in 5 years I wonder if they mean housing will have gone up or do they really mean housing prices will be hitting new peaks. Hopefully they mean the first interpretation, but knowing them probably not...
Another way to look at it is, even the NAR has capitulated to overwhelming market sentiment and has declared the future of housing is murkey at best.Of course, by the time this has happened, the bottom really is in and everything starts the slow climb upwards.My $0.02
HB, you're right that "recovered" isn't defined. My interpretation was that they expected prices would not be back to the previous high point until five years from now. I would assume one would use a different word to describe a peak we've not seen. Of course, this is an organization whose members use "cozy and charming" to describe an 800 foot house with no updates.They clearly aren't predicting a spike in 2011; otherwise I don't know why they would refer to the 5 year point. If they are right, and since we have no reason to predict a sudden spike in 5 years so would assume a gradual transition upward, that gives people time to decide. Of course, the easiest thing to do is just ignore them altogether since they, ahem, have somewhat less credibility than we might like...
anyone know what happened with this house?http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/30/AR2008053001502.html
Ace-I agree I usually ignore them other occasionally reading their information for comical effect.
http://franklymls.com/AR7470050sold for 525K in 2007 and nowU/C as a short sale for 325K.Seems like a 40% cut in Immunington,but don't worry, Immunington never goes down, it only floats above the troubles, dropping food wrappers on the poor schmucks in Prince William.
Buck,Ah yes, poor ol' Annie and her overpriced, ugly (IMHO) row house. If you haven't seen it, you might find the price history and time on the market amusing. Evans FarmAnnie is a Realtor, and would make a considerable amount of money if she could sell the house even as low as assessed value but she continues to delude herself into thinking her house is "special." You'd think a Realtor know better.
Pat That house and others in Barcroft Forest, Columbia Forest, some parts of Douglas Park and other parts of So Arlington were oversold to mostly Hispanic construction workers or small contractors. They rented out basement "rooms" to single construction workers to help pay the mortgage. When the construction boom ended, the owners and their tenants lost their jobs. I am surprised this owner held on so long. Many of the houses in these neighborhoods were short sales in 2008 and 2009 and caused the dip in Arlington housing prices. You may see some more this year but a lot have cleared the market.
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