Here are Northern Virginia's September sales. Sales are down by an average of 22% YOY in the counties of Arlington, Fairfax, and Prince William, and in Alexandria City. Loudoun fared better with sales down only 13%. Fauquier had a more respectable month -- sales were up 32%, median prices were up 23%, and inventory continued to lessen. Inventory is up over last year in every other county.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Northern Virginia September Housing Sales
Posted by Harriet at 10:02 PM
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12 comments:
I am Sure Anon will accuse various con-artists and Hustlers of doom-selling for noticing that the interior suburbs are now at the same Inventory level as during the Crisis.
The outer burbs appear to be rising but not as bad. They had their Subprime Implosion, now their Prime Implosion is happening much more weakly in the outer burbs.
The inner burbs never had a subprime inventory but now the Alt-A and Prime runup is happening.
pat,
I've looked at the graphs (mris). What the heck are you talking?
cheryl
look at the active listings to sales ratios.
Arlington 5.5 in 2010, 5.6 in 2006
similiar for alexandria.
but look at PWC or Loudon
LO 10.9 in 2006, 6.5 in 2010
PWC 10.6 in 2006 5.9 in 2010
the inner suburbs are rising up like they did in 06/07,
Are you referring to MOI? I was actually looking at the MLS data (the graphs that go back a number of years).
I don't see anything frightening. The absolute inventory numbers over the months and years necessarily reflect absorption rates. It is something to watch, but the numbers for 2008 and 2009 were very low. Look at all the bidding wars that took place. That does not suggest a normal market.
Pat -- I havent bought yet. Heres your chance to set me straight. Here are the huckster rules which you can clarify for me as they apply to Arlington...
#1. No place is different -- nothing to say here but remember this huckster rule #1 when analyizing the rules below.
#2. Arlington Inventory -- See how there were 1,278 listings in 06? When they started declining, CRT & others said they very well could have peaked. However the hucksters continued to point out "Mr. Mortgage sais the Alt A Tsunami is still on the way". Further, because of rule #1, this will smash Arlington too.
So how bout it pat? Was 1,278 the peak or is the TSUUUUUUUNAAAAAAAMIIIII still on its way to Arlington?
#3. Months of inventory -- See how places like Loudoun spent all of 2006 & 2007 at over 10 MOI? Hucksters saw the 4 to 5 MOI numbers that Arlington saw as evidence "its moving in/it hasnt happened yet", whereas people like CRT & Cara suggested it may very well have "moved in", just isnt going to hit hard.
So heres your chance Pat. Keeping in mind rule #1, will Arlington see one to two years of double digit MOI just like Loudoun?
#4 Arlington Median Prices -- what it all comes down to at the end is price. Median prices in Arl, Alex, FFX & Lou all rose 130% to 134% from year 2000 to the peak. The hucksters noticed that Loudoun prices fell 35% from the peak, and (thanks to rule #1) the fact that Arlington fell only 12% from the peak was evidence that "its moving in - huge downfalls are on the way to Arlington".
Well thanks to the rising prices of the last 2 years, Arlington median price is only 3% away from the all time peak (475K in 2005). Thanks to rule #1, are you now saying that Arlington median prices will soon rocket down again all the way to -35% from the peak?
Put another way, are you trying to say that if we wait long enough, Arlington will eventually see a median price of 310K, proving that "its not different anywhere"?
So heres your chance Pat. I havent bought yet -- heres your chance to set me straight. Tell me about the 1,278+tsunami inventory levels we will see. Tell me about Arlington will spend years at over 10 MOI. And most importantly, since the hucksters are all correct (and no place is different), TELL ME ABOUT HOW ARLINGTON MEDIAN PRICES ARE GOING TO PLUNGE DOWN TO 310K!!!
Anon
Any prediction is worthless without a direct pipeline into Bernankes brain.
Could you predict rates would be below 5% for 30 year money?
Could you predict the Fed would buy up a trillion in worthless paper?
Could you predict the Treasury would guarantee Freddie paper?
Could you predict the Federal government would start giving out buyers bribes?
if you could you should have bought
6 years ago.
Things i know:
a 1% increase in long term rates results in a 8% decrease in affordability.
a 2% increase in unemployment results in reduced sales volumes.
a 10K purchase incentive results in 30K price increases.
asking me to predict this is like predicting when a house of cards is going to collapse without factoring in winds and elephant stampedes.
is the market unstable? Sure.
is the market being propped up. Yes.
will this stop? hard to say.
i'd have preferred the market to
revert to sanity and rates to have stayed stable. it would have made
a lot of decisions easy, because, underwater sellers would capitulate or keep going and financing would be a lot more predictable.
lets just see what happens.
Do i believe the market is overheated? Still? yes.
but as long as Bernanke keeps stoking the fire, it may take a long time to cool off.
anon
Tell me this, would you rather buy now at 4% rates, knowing that in 7 years you may have to sell in an 8% interest rate environment, or would you rather buy lower at a 7% rate now, and face the prospect of refinancing if rates drop?
Anon
if you think it's so great, go out,
bid top dollar, the future is so bright, you gotta wear shades.
is the market unstable? Sure.
is the market being propped up. Yes.
will this stop? hard to say.
B..But...BUT...the hucksters promised -- no place is "different". Arlington will suffer a complete and absolute catastrophe (despite the low MOI and near peak pricing -- 5 years on and counting) because they said so!!!
"lets just see what happens."
How much longer pat? The last 2 years of "waiting to see what happens" brought me slowly rising prices -- how many more YEARS have to pass by before you decide "gee I guess -40% isnt in the cards for Arlington"???
Anon
You seem angry that our opinions haven't matched the current market conditions.
how long will things take to change?
that's like asking how many grains of sand are on a beach.
We are making bets while the Federal Reserve is pushing trillions around.
my expectations are rational, but, it's rather like betting on the stock market when Bernanke is supporting the futures market.
when the feds stop interfering in the market rationally will return.
"Pat said...when the feds stop interfering in the market rationally will return."
Oh so thats the key -- you are relying on an institution, which has been interfering with the market since 1913, to stop interfering? Really?
Seriously, its a legitimate question -- as the median price data continues to hold firm, when do you conclude "I guess the big drops arent going to happen" and move on?
If I recall correctly, a few months ago you said if 2012 rolls around and Arlington still hasnt had the big drop you anticipate, you will conclude "I guess its not going to happen". Are you still sticking with that 2012 date or are you going to pull a contrarian and continuously move that capitulation date further and further ahead?
Anon
in the long run we will all be dead, but i will be impressed if the Fed can sustain the unsustainable for 2 more years.
of course the japanese have sustained nutty real estate for 20 years by keeping rates at zero and flooding liquidity and depending upon the moral guilt of the japanese salary man.
of course japan has had lousy growth rates
now what about the US? can the Fed lose a decade? will capital flee to canada, germany and china?
certainly the feds have spent 3 years flooding the system.
BTW would you have believed the Fed could raise rates to 20% in 1979?
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