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Tuesday, October 26, 2010
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20 comments:
Maybe it's me, but this is one annoying flip. The missing range hood was bad enough, and then I noticed where the microwave was. Yeesh!
Oops. My bad? Maybe the exhaust is built into the range top. Kitchen's still a bit bizarre though (what's up with the oven?).
The CS numbers just came out and where basically flat. The seasonally adjusted number was down less than 0.1% and the non seasonally adjusted number was up a couple tenths. It looks like this will be the last flat-positive print we should start to see fairly negative prints starting next month.
There was a large difference between the tiers. Inexpensive houses were down 2.2%, middle was down 0.3% and the high tier was up 0.8%
HB, I am reading NSA low tier down 2.17% (from 183.76 to 179.77), mid down 0.3%, and upper tier up 0.8%.
FYI the tax credit impact on the lowest tier is 15.56%, mid tier 14.12$, high tier 10.18%. Assumptions can be made about whether first time homebuyers/couples can afford mid or high tier houses or whether those increases were due to the move-up effect from creating so many first time buyers.
Either way, the tax credit is a shining example of really terrible, loathsome fiscal policy. One for the books.
Kevin-
I agree about the tax policy. First time buyers in this area can definitely at least buy the middle tier. You can question the high tier although a lot of my friends are buying high tier houses for their first house.
"Kevin said...FYI the tax credit impact on the lowest tier is 15.56%, mid tier 14.12$, high tier 10.18%."
Kev -- I cant open the latest CS report from this computer. Is this above statement in the report or is it just your assumptions regarding the impact?
I wouldn't call them assumptions, assumptions aren't usually made to the hundredths of a percent. They're calculations.
Low Tier
(183.76 - 159.02) / 159.02 = 15.56%
Mid Tier
(185.36 - 162.43) / 162.43 = 14.12%
High Tier
(185 - 167.9) / 167.9 = 10.18%
Kevin-
Although I think a lot of the recent move is related to the tax credit the market started turning positive in Mar 2009 before the tax credit was passed. So its difficult to claim that 100% of recent moves are related to the tax credit. Although I would not be surprised if a lot/most of the recent upward moves are erased going forward.
OK calculations then. Again, I cant see the report -- did they come up with these calculations, or did you just come up with them yourself?
Hey, Kevin, is there any news on your house offer?
Ace, the bank went with another buyer. I'll be keeping an eye on what it sold for though. There's always a small chance that it went to a friend/relative of the agent and my offer was never presented. Yes, that's how much I distrust agents!
HB, it will ultimately take a few more months worth of data to know what the fallout from the credit will teach us. I'm guessing the evidence nationally will be much more noticeable. Also keep in mind that the difference in interest rates has given leveraged buyers about 10% more purchasing power.
Anon,
The numbers are from the CS report. You can verify this yourself at another computer. The calculations were done by me, not CS. Feel free to recalculate them if they don't seem right.
Kevin-
I agree that interest rates make a very big deal. I was just trying to say it wasn't just the 8k that caused prices to go up. It sounds like you agree that interest rates also were important. There are probably a bunch of other things that mattered like the stock markets rise... Either way I fully agree with you most/all of the increase in prices was due to the government and it will take months/years to figure out what the true impact was. I am sure PHD students will write thesis papers on this subject.
Anon-
The numbers Kevin posted were based on the lowest point for each index and their recent highs. The numbers are correct although you can debate what part of the increase was the 8K, low interest rates, economic improvement...
http://franklymls.com/DC7428633
Appraised for 444K, sells for 245K,
45% depreciation.
Looks like a ton of potential and decent walk to metro.
So do we have some interest in a happy hour Friday say about 5:30 or 6 PM at North Side Social which is
close to the Liberty Tavern?
Blogger pat said...
http://franklymls.com/DC7428633
Appraised for 444K, sells for 245K,
45% depreciation.
Looks like a ton of potential and decent walk to metro.
10/26/10 2:00 PM
For a 105 year old house I'd have to agree with you. You think the squatters lived in there for long after the deceased vacated?
One hopes it happened in that order....
Good bones by the way. Haven't seen full strength Premium grade rafters in so long I forgot what quality structural wood looked like.
:-^....
Just had a refi appraisal done. From Aug 09 to yesterday, we are at +3.5% from the prior appraisal and +4.5% from our purchase price.
Neighborhood comps:
Prior 7-12 months: $549k
Prior 4-6 months: $564k
Current - 3 months: $570k
List prices are unbelievably stable:
Prior 7-12 months: $579k
Prior 4-6 months: $578k
Current - 3 months: $579k
pat,
I might be able to make that. Gotta get clearance from the better half, but it sounds doable.
TN
I Suspect it had a terrible layout
and a lot of just screwed up stuff
over time.
5 BR 1 Bath? It said 4 big BR's
up stairs, maybe in the 1890's
they didnt spend as much time in the bathroom but still.
a 3 BR with 1 bath doesn't work well for a family.
great bones though, but an easy 50K in work.
If my situation wasn't so screwed up, I would have taken it.
I have my eye on a wildly overpriced house in DC it's been 270 DOM without a price cut at some point they have to be sick of the
BS.
I'm also tied up my Brother is getting divorced and will need to firesale his house so i'm on hold there.
pat-
I doubt I can make it. I unfortunately tend to leave the office ~7 and am in Tysons...
So, I guess none of the Federal spending in the last 18 months had anything to do with CS.
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