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Calculated Risk has some sobering headlines: one is "Chicago Fed: Economic activity slowed further in September," and there's an article about double-digit housing supply.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 10/25/2010
Posted by Harriet at 10:49 AM
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22 comments:
Out here west of Gainesville, single-family rentals have dried up! At least, the newer-home failed flipper houses are gone. Now the rental stock is older and smaller.
I've also noticed that land prices have continued to fall. I'm considering trading our HOA for some chickens, goats, and fruit trees. :-)
Harriet,
You may not be off target on buying farmland. Michael Burry, the brilliant guy who foresaw the collapse of the subprime mortgages after scrutinizing investor prospectuses, is now interested in buying farmable land with an on-site source of water. This new idea is likely based on thorough research.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-07/michael-burry-predictor-of-mortgage-collapse-bets-on-farmland-and-gold.html
Harriet - does the double-digit housing supply look to affect our local markets?
Got rejected over the weekend on an offer that was significantly under list price but 5,000 over the appraisal we sent with it done by our agent's favorite appraiser. Wonder if the market is skewing more towards buyers or sellers here at the moment (or if it's completely localized, or neutral).
Katie-
Locally we have a lot less than 10 months of inventory, although MOI has been rising recently. Based on the areas I am looking at it looks like things are skewing towards the buyers direction. I expect this to be the case for most of the winter.
Real estate is definitely local, although trends are usually the same direction. AKA Arlington fell when the national markets fell, but instead of falling 30% it fell 5-10%. It is very rare for a region to be going up in value while the rest of the nation is falling in value.
hey
is there any interest in setting up a real estate happy hour?
Rather then snipe at each other in little comments, argue over beer?
Pat-
My guess is we will have trouble getting a critical mass together based on differences in where people live, schedules..., but if we can get a decently large group together I could probably make it.
pat,
I went to one of the HBB meet&greets a few years back. I'm not in a position to do so quite as easily as I was then, but I'd try to make it.
Extreme Makeover, Lyon Village style:
from a cozy 2/2/0 Cape Cod...
to a grand 5/4/1 classic Bungalow
MOAR PLEEZE!
MM-
It looks like all of us were correct that the only way they could possibly justify the 850K price tag was if they were going to tear it down and put in a monster house in its place. I can't imagine wanting a house that big with so little land.
hb,
Location, location, oh... nevermind.
Yeah, I see this as a dud, but what do I know. I'm not in that market--way outside my price range.
From the Post - sales numbers up in September, but analysts still concerned.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/25/AR2010102501511.html?hpid=topnews
Hey, MM, I was (nearly) right about that Lyon Village house! (Even a stopped clock is right twice a day).
This is the governments October report on housing housing
In general it is pretty ugly. If you add inventory + inventory held off the market it is near an all time peak. Sales are very low... The only positives I see are trial mods/refinancing is saving consumers ~$15B/year, which should help the people/economy. Also affordability on NARs index is near an all time high. I know this is mostly due to flat home prices and lower mortgage rates, but in general more affordable housing is good for the nation.
Extreme Makeover II, COUNTRY CLUB style:
from a ... well, run-down Arl Colonial
to a grand 5/4/1 Bungalow
sound familiar? yup, brought to you by the same builder of that Lyon Village house - BCN Homes
MOAR & MOAR PLEEZE!
if we do drinks is there a strong preference for metro access or should we pick a place with decent parking?
To pay for a 1.5M house you approximately need to make 300K
maybe more.
Incomes marginally support this in North Arlington.
MM
HOW MUCH MOAR?
pat,
no if one puts down $1M
but you know that already
Pat: How about meeting at Libery Tavern, Lyon Hall or North Side Social in Arlington? All three restaurants are owned by Brian Normile, who also owns BCN Homes. He is a force in Lyon Village and is spreading into other neighborhoods. He builds a good house and has a ready market in the neighborhoods with high dollar buyers. He has picked up about 7 other houses in Lyon Village that never made it to the MLS.
reecon, you weren't formerly known as anielarke, were you? You have the same great inside scoops!
lets try north side social, liberty tavern is too loud.
now that we have aplace,
how is friday? happy hour?
REdealSEEKER,
Thanks for the link.
Jim Rogers likes commodities and land/agriculture, too.
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