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Thursday, September 9, 2010
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15 comments:
MM said...
...yes I expect it to go UC soon - or I'd declare North Arlington is toast.
8/17/10 1:50 PM
i'm quoting myself as a preemptive measure seeing that the listing in question is still not UC and in fact just went down another ~3%.
I declare North Arlington is toast.
(I hear Anonymous laughing already)
MM-
It also shows that banks are really trying to sell the houses that are in REO. This house is having its price dropped every three weeks and most of the drops are pretty substantial.
MM, except for Lyon Village?
Do you think there is a mold problem (as is condition)?
If the listing keeps going down, VA_Investor may swoop it up.
Ace-
I am pretty sure that it is an "as is", because it is a REO. Almost all shorts and REOs are as is. Although if it falls much more it won't matter if there is a mold problem, because the land is where most of the value is anyways.
MM, another entry for your "is N. Arl. toast?" contest:
started at $1.25M, ended less than $900K
HB, thanks.
I'm sure some hard core bulls want to blame the hucksters for these price reductions, but it may be reality moving in.
i am seeing decent price cuts in the areas i am following
MM,
We've discussed this house before right? It appears to be a very small 3/2 with one of the bedrooms crammed into the attic. In my mind the $499 mark should be the absolute upper bound for this home unless it is immaculately updated with all of the trimmings. Even then, I wouldn't expect it to fetch much more than $525-550k. It is also not particularly well located for walking to the metro.
Homes of this size are all over 22205 and have been floundering in the range 500-550k but selling in the 425-475 range.
That said, I think the floor is well established in the mid to upper 400's.
My $0.02
Ace-
That is impressive that they had so much trouble selling a brand new large house and ended up only getting 840K
"pat said...
I'm sure some hard core bulls want to blame the hucksters for these price reductions, but it may be reality moving in."
No Pat -- im convinced. These two houses, one selling for 100K above 2005 assessed value, the other (likely) going for between 2004-2005 assessed value is clear and convincing evidence that N. Arlington is indeed "toast".
The hucksters were right -- "its moving in" was true... These 2 houses conclusively prove that all houses in N. Arlington will drop 40% from their peak, just like loudoun, pwc, etc. Thanks to these 2 houses, we now know that all N. Arlington real estate will sell for 2002 prices, just like the hucksters said.
In fact, screw the mountain of stats that show again and again and again, that the vast majority of N. Arlington is going for -5 to -10% off peak values. All we needed was to see what happened to these 2 houses to prove that -40% and 2002 prices is the law of the land in N. Arlington.
Case closed!
all things in all due time.
http://franklymls.com/DC7424316
30% below assessed in the H Street Corridor.
The Anonymous,
it took me twenty clicks to finally come across one SFH that sold a mere $10K more than '04 tax. take a look.
equally hard to find are houses sold for 5%-10% off-peak, most are higher than 04/05/06 depending when you believe the peak was/is.
also i don't think i would find anything sold for '02 tax, unfortunately.
maybe i'll have better luck checking condos/THs sales.
My two cents. Not sure where you got your info about all the houses in 22205 listed in the $525-550K range selling in $425-$475K range. I live in 22205 and follow that market. According to frankly this year 8 houses have sold in that zip at $500K or less. Among these 8 houses, lowest sales price was $440K (it was listed at $475K) and highest price was $500K (it was listed at $500k). These 8 houses represent about 5% of the 141 houses sold in zip 22205. Am I missing a data source? Both houses you talked about are under the WETA radio tower and one is on a busy street and one is on a pretty shabby street off George Mason near the post office. I agree with anon, if the North ARlington market is toast, it is toast with jam on it and a pretty sweet spot.
fact check,
not that i'm proud of my 'prediction' but it was me who declare N Arl is toast, not mytwocents. he actually has a better grasp of the market, IHO.
btw i think mytwocents is referring to houses like this - a small 2/1 in 22205. how much do you think it will sell?
MM,
You are correct. I think Fact Check mistook what I was trying to say. More precisely, what I said probably wasn't clear.
I was referring specifically to the smaller brick 2/1/1, 3/1/1, and 3/2 in the 22205 and 22203 area codes.
A lot of them have come on the market in the last year anywhere from $450k-$600k. Those that are not updated, and asking $550k or more, tend to languish. Those that are not updated, but priced $425-475k seem to find a buyer.
Yes there are many more properties in these zips that command higher prices, but they are either larger homes or very smartly updated.
I guess the point I was getting at is, the floor seems to be in around the mid to upper $400k's.
My personal feeling, and the reason I bought, is that if you can get one of these for mid 400k's and have a viable 2/2 or 3/2 that's nicely renovated, it'll compete on a cash flow basis with the rents commanded by the luxury 2 bedrooms right in Ballston and Clarendon. The numbers aren't perfect but they were close enough for me given the added utility I got out of a larger living space and nice yard.
My $0.02
My two cents When you referred to zip code 22205 I thought you were talking about zip code 22205. Although you say the small 2/1 houses are all over 22205, not many of them have sold this year (i.e., 2010) at the prices you quoted. I am happy that you were able to find a good house in either zip code 22205 or 22203 and have made improvements to it to increase the value. Although from a rental parity standpoint these small houses may compare with rentals in the Clarendon, Ballson area, I am not sure that renters are going to give up the amenities and convenience of those buildings and areas for smaller, older houses with yards to maintain (unless the landlord includes lawn service) and other issues, such as shoveling snow and no garage parking.
MM I still agree with Anon that the North Arlington market is NOT toast. As a buyer, you might want that to be the case. But I have seen you posting about enough houses that you have missed, that I think you might be getting the picture that unless you settle for the shack you mentioned in Bon Air, you are going to either pay the price for a decent house or have to spend money fixing up a house. I hope you do the latter as it is good when old houses are given a new life.
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