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Thursday, September 30, 2010
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34 comments:
Cheryl
certainly the low end bubbled worse then the high end, and have fallen harder as they had the fewest resources but i lived in bethesda 18 years i never saw aforeclosure there and i see them now,
unemployment is better here, but it's a mixed bag, DC is now clearing pipeline dealss are happening but
who knows in a trillion dollar screw up there are deals everywhere.
The Anonymous when are you going to buy?
I wonder how much money John Paulson has made vs. Robert Prechter.
John Paulson is known for a huge contrarian bet, the call that housing was doomed. It made him incredibly wealthy.
The New York hedge fund manager is now advocating another tack against the prevailing winds in the markets: Sell bonds, and buy stocks. Oh, and while you're at it, grab a house or two as well. (He's also big on gold but that's hardly running against the current.)
And perhaps most interestingly, he's downright exuberant about the housing market.
“If you don’t own a home buy one,” Mr. Paulson reportedly recommended.” if you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”
Robert -- John Paulson isn't really that impressive, in my mind. He didn't make his money as a "contrarian." Instead, he regularly traded on "inside" information and deals. He is lucky that the SEC didn't charge him, along with Goldman and company.
It's widely known that he now has bull positions on housing. He is just "talking-up his book," hoping people blindly follow him because they perceive as a good track record. I actually sense some desperation in his voice. It's reported that this has NOT been a good year for him (haven't actually tried to confirm).
I'll take Whitney over Paulsen anyday: http://www.cnbc.com/id/39404684
Mike & Robert-
He was smart in the bets he made on housing failing. He did a good job in finding an investment that would make many hundreds of percent (rather than shorting where a stock can only fall 100%). He also did a great job of calling the bottom. He got rid of his shorts and invested heavily in banks in Feb 2009 only a couple weeks before the market bottomed.
Although both of those were great investments, he now believes that we will have double digit inflation by 2012. Personally I think he is dead wrong on this and inflation will continue to be really low, but I guess we will just have to wait and see.
Contrarian-
If you did the opposite of what Paulson did you would regularly have lost all of your money.
pauslon's returns
This only goes though September, but he also had a very good end to the year since we was short. I don't have his 2009 returns, but seeing that he made ~$6B personally I assume he did well. pauslon's wealth.
I am not sure why you think he has been right for almost 20 years, but you should always short what he does...
Mike,
I'm sure Whitney is talking her book as well. Rather a given when talking to money managers. Stating the obvious.
Paulson is 80% in Gold. I have a hard time believing he's having a bad year.
To suggest that a single hedge fund manager, no matter how significant, could move the $25 trillion dollar residential housing market isn't believable.
A few days ago I asked for an informal assessment of the price of this listing:
http://franklymls.com/FA7449186
Agent re-listed it at 30K lower with some different verbage and retouched photos. I still think that's too high, but it'll be interesting to see what happens.
MM -- very very soon.
Re: Who made more money, Paulson vs. Prechter. In terms of investing, its Paulson by a landslide. Prechter has been out of the market since 1987 when he predicted the great depression II coming in 1990 or 1991.
Further, according to Eric Tyson, anyone following Prechter's investment advice (mostly shorts at absolutely terrible times) over the last 20+ years would have lost 98.5% of their money. Think about that for a second!!! $100,000 invested using Prechter's advice back in 1985 would be worth a mere $1,700 today!!!
Now regarding who made more money, that is debatable. Prechter is now a full fledged peddler of doom. He plies the fear trade by selling his newsletters at $100 a year, to suckers who are fearful
of complete economic collapse and want someone to confirm their fears. $100 isnt much but multiply that by potentially millions of gullible fools out there who are convinced we are on the verge of an imminent collapse, and Prechter could be worth alot of money.
Katie..I saw your older post and looked at it then and thought it should sell around 550. I see it has an open house this weekend. It will probbaly sell then. Not knowing what it actually looks like and how the neighborhood feels..just ball parking..
Katie, I know you said you were having a hard time getting a comp for this..so check solds on that street and you will see this isn't even close to being the most expensive..if everything around you or close to you is selling above what you consider a good deal..its a good deal..
Arkey, thanks for the input. Much appreciated, as I'm very new at this.
My issue with the solds, actives, and UCs in the neighborhood is that many of them are significantly bigger (there are a lot of tear-downs and renovations in that part of Falls Church) or the updates are nicer than Ikea-chic and the floors don't need an overhaul. When I do find similar sized homes on similarly sized lots, the prices seem to range from 480K to 575K, and I'm too inexperienced to be able to tell from listings what differentiates them.
Katie..on that street with house numbers selling at a million or 600+ you are buying into an area that is definietly increasing in value when you see tear downs and new builds it indicates that it is a highly desireable area to a pocket of buyers..and..buyers that have money. If you look thru the zip code you will still see 3beds selling for more than 560..Trust your realtor or the tax assessment but basically buy a home you want to live in, that gets your juices flowing and be haapy. If you are a home buyer don't sweat paying to much..so what if you overpay 1 or 2% if you plan on staying awhile. If you are an investor every penny counts because they need to flip. If you love that house, that neighborhood..go make an offer because on that street just getting in you are gonna pay what appears to be an over-high price.
Contrarian (and Mike), did you happen to pay attention to what Meredith Whitney said around the 3:35 mark of the interview? To paraphrase, the exchange between her and Bartiromo went like this:
"Bartiromo: Now, you say that some states are positive, what is the best state?
Whitney: Texas by a mile... It is a small government state, low taxes, housing isnt an issue, great population trends...
Bartiromo: And Virginia is a positive state too?
Whitney: Yes Virginia is also positive FOR ALL THE SAME REASONS...
So I guess according to Whitney the coast is clear here in VA huh?
OT,
Anyone have the info on lenders speeding up decisions on shorts?
WAY OT,
Anyone know if bald eagles are still problematic (endangered) when building near them?
got the eagle answer!
http://franklymls.com/AR7317153
Down 40% from the peak.
Regarding Paulsen: he trades on inside information. He was at the center of the civil charges against Goldman. He chose the specific MBSs to bet against. Yes, he had the sense to bet against MBSs, but slimy enough not to disclose his relationships to the actual deal he was betting against. The fact that he is holding so much gold portends his true feelings about the economy. If things are so hunky-dory in the housing market and the stock market, as he claims in one breath, then it makes little sense to extol the virtues of gold, as he does in the other breadth.
The Anon: anyone who follows Whitman knows she is predicting a double-dip in housing. Will it effect all states equally, of course not. Whitman, regardless of the quote you took out of context, was discussing state balance sheets, not housing prices in Virginia, much less Northern Virginia.
Robert: you said, “To suggest that a single hedge fund manager, no matter how significant, could move the $25 trillion dollar residential housing market isn't believable.” You’re being intellectual dishonest. I wasn’t suggesting he DID move the market, but that he was trying to influence sentiment, something you implicitly recognized with your previous sentence, e.g., it’s a “given” that money managers try to do this.
"Mike said... Whitman, regardless of the quote you took out of context, was discussing state balance sheets, not housing prices in Virginia, much less Northern Virginia"
No Mike -- I knew someone would question that so I listened to that quote very very carefully before I paraphrased it. Whitney said balance sheets, housing, demographics, etc., and then asked said yes VA was positive for ALL the same reasons.
Point taken on Northern VA (although I note it would be easy for her to say in that 10 minute discussion, "yes on VA but Nova still has some housing issues"). Still, I ask you go back and listen to that quote again, and get back to me if you disagree.
The anon: I assume it is a quote. My point, as I said, is that the quote was taken out of context. Let me explain:
As anyone who follows Whitman knows, she is predicting a U.S. double-dip in housing. This will, as the premise implies, affect Virginia (unless Virginia stops being apart of US). Will all states be equally affected?: no.
You are telling me that I should infer that Virginia will not be impacted by the double-dip that Whitman herself predicts because of one phrase that she used in reference to an economic indicator in relation to Texas: "housing isn’t an issue," along with a list of other economic indicators. In response to another question about Virginia’s fiscal health she says that Virginia is in positive territory for “all the same reasons [as Texas].” First, are you telling me that I should disregard everything Whitman has said to date about the US housing market because of quick second-off question?
For example, she also said that Texas was better positioned because it went through an oil crisis and because it is anti-government. Do you apply this this to Virginia too? Why not? She said, after all, “ALL the same reasons [as Texas].” The reason you don’t is because it would be an absurd result, or it would be taking her quote out of context.
Second, what does “housing isn’t an issue” mean to you? Housing can fall in Virginia 5-10% and yet still not be an “issue” for Virginia’s balance sheet, which is what Whitman was discussing, i.e., states’ budgets woes.
In short, you go out of your way to interpret Whitman’s remarks. So much so, that you fail to see that even if she means what you claims she says, it still doesn’t support your view.
Mike -- I understand what you are saying, and yes with regard to oil, clearly it does not apply.
Nevertheless, Whitney (not Whitman as you continuously call her) went out of her way to volunteer that housing isnt an issue. She didnt have to do this. The issue was state governments, yet she cited factors (such as housing) that were not an issue in a few speciric places, one of which was Virginia.
In any event, the point I was making was more in relation to contrarian. He continuiously comes here again and again praying to convince us all that he is right and we are at risk of imminent doom. Thus he says:
"Whitney's latest on housing and the economy - states are going to collapse."
However, in true Contrarian fashion, he fails to completely vet his source. In this case, she is saying most (but not all) states are going to need a bailout. Not "collapse" as he says, just that they will need a bailout.
Secondly, as Ms. Whitney went out of her way to say there are certain states where these concerns are not an issue. One of them is Texas (by a mile). The other one she specifically mentioned is Virginia.
So I guess I find it ironic that Contrarian's source of doom, goes out of her way to say (in sum) its different in Texas and Virginia. If you were really hoping to convince people here that housing and the economy are going to "collapse", its best not to cite a source that says its different here.
hi Katie,
Agents playing around with Iphoto settings on their photos bugs me.
People will pay a premium to be in the FC City schools district (not something necessarily on your radar if you don't have kids getting to school age)--so I feel like the prices are hard to guesstimate (b/c FC City is so small and things seem to run a smidge more expensive than similar properties in N. Arlington).
I think the master bedroom being in the basement is a big negative for a lot of people.
That area has a ton of tear-downs and some of them look really ridiculous on the lots IMO!
The Anonymous,
ha! i could sense that you're on the move. best of luck.
"Contrarian said...
The Anon,
If it is so different here as you allege, there would not have been any foreclosures or any price drops in Virginia, but we all know that's far from reality."
It wasnt me Contrarian, it was your source, Meredith Whitney who said that Texas and Virginia are "positive".
This is no too unlike the other day when your dsily source of doom said (a) everything would collapse (which you very much wanted to believe) AND (b) there would be imminent hyperinflation (which goes against everything you stand for). Your source cannot be knowledgeable and an idiot at the same time -- its either one or the other.
Likewise, this is what we have now. On the one hand you very much want to say Ms. Whitney is knowledgeable in that the states are deeply in need of a bailout, but you desparately do not want to believe that Texas and VA are "positive".
So once again, its your choice. Is Ms Whitney "knowledgeable" such that (a) most states are insolvent AND (b) Tx and VA are positive.
OR
Is Ms. Whitney an idiot, not knowledgeable about the status of any of the states, in which you have wasted all our time.
So which one is it?
"Contrarian said...
It simply shows how far detached you are from reality."
Seriously, have you no shame? You accuse me of being detached from reality despite the fact that last year at this time you said:
__________________________________
"Contrarian said...
The Anonymous, are you naive enough to believe that at this time next year the market will not be lower than it was back in March (2009)?
9/30/09 11:33 AM"
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2009/09/northern-virginia-bits-bucket-9282009.html#comment-2463858820118826913
___________________________________
So tell us Contrarian, arbiter of "reality", how did this one work out for you?
MM -- Thanks
Meshell, thanks for your input.
Agent suggested that unless we really wanted to, putting in an offer now would just lead to a bidding war (which we'd really like to avoid), so we're gonna sit tight until next week, especially since my spouse likes but does not totally love the house (Arkey, appreciated your advice there). We'll see what happens.
"Contrarian said...
As I said yesterday, I stated in January that the top would occur in the next few months, which occurred in April."
And just like you did last September, when this prediction goes belly up sometime in the future, you will delete it and merely say it was something I "made up".
Regarding your last September call, I wanted to say you are a lying sack of sh*t for saying that I made it up -- however its possible that you simply forgot that you said it. So let me make this crystal clear.
Last September you said:
"Contrarian said...The Anonymous, are you naive enough to believe that at this time next year the market will not be lower than it was back in March (2009)?"
If I made this up, as god as my witness, may my sweet innocent newborn niece contract some terrible disease and die. Is that enough conviction for you?
Look, you said it, it didnt happen, you were wrong. End of story.
This is a wonderful post. The things given are unanimous and needs to be appreciated by everyone.
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dwilson1707
Mortgage Rates
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