Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
The Case Shiller number just came out and was up 1.1%, which is about half the gain seen during the last three months. Although this is gain is obviously a lot smaller than the previous numbers (especially since it uses a rolling average), it was a little higher than I expected. I was thinking it would probably be a gain between 0-1%.
HB - my own thoughts are that once again, the effect of the tax credit was vastly overstated, (i.e. some believe that ALL of the bounce seen in the last 18 months is tax credit), and the seasonal effect was understated. I dont put you in the overstating the tax credit crowd, but I do think you underestimated the power of the seasonal bounce. FWIW - the rate of increase (YOY) is slowing. 2 months ago, prices were increasing at a 7.7% annual clip, and now the increases are less than 7% YOY.Also, keep in mind that last summer, MD prices were in freefall so it was a bit surprising that Case Shiller went up at all in 2009 with MD being a drag on the index. Now that MD looks like it is bottoming out, that lack of freefall is probably preventing some of the levity we are seeing in the index today.
Anon-You are probably correct that I am underestimating a seasonal impact. Although both seasonality and the government program are going against the market, so we should expect the market to look weaker over the next couple of reports.
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