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Monday, September 20, 2010
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32 comments:
Interesting read from last week's WSJ: Where’s the Foreclosure Flood?
contrarian,
I have seen this come up in several Bankruptcy Courts. As a matter of Equity, should these borrower's profiteer over clerical errors? Do they not owe the money?
We are all apalled when a crook gets off on a "technicallity", is this any different?
I'm sure that one-page "assignments" are being printed by the gross.
So "fraud", a servicer stating that they are an owner, vitciates(? - how do you turn on spell check?) the repayment obligation of the borrower? I'm not condoning sloppy documentation (or fraud, for that matter), but should this be a "free" house situation for the borrower?
Clearly, the transfers and paperwork is unprecedented. Perhaps I should investigate all my mortgages and refuse to pay the one's that can't provide proper transfer doc's.
It just boils down to a make-work bonanza for lawyers. None of us will profit by this nonsense - in fact, the opposite is true.
oh contraire? Your last post evaporated.
Link
The average wages of Americans have been falling (in real dollars) since 1970, making 1970 house-prices a reasonable point-in-time to look at as a possible, long-term equilibrium point for prices. That implies that U.S. house-prices will fall another 75% from current prices. Indeed, with the average American now earning (in real dollars) what their great-grandparents earned during the Great Depression, 1970-prices suddenly look much less far-fetched.
What possible claim? Would any claim be forthcoming had the house gone up 100K? I think not.
According to this chart which is two-thirds the way down this article on shadow inventory, the D.C. area has 90,000 homes that are either in default or 90 days late on payments.
DC area - so what percent does 90K represent of total housing stock? I'd take a couple of those "package deals" of 50 or a hundred homes. I doubt we will see them again - but, who knows.
I don't see any definition of the DC area (W. Va., included?) I don't see percentage of total housing units, etc. I read the whole article and if taken at face value, it's severely lacking.
Scroll this list to see what's included in the DC CBSA ("core based statistical area"). Pretty wide area!
Also, the source for the data (Lender Processing Services) has quite a bit of chart porn available for free here:
http://www.lpsvcs.com/NewsRoom/IndustryData/Pages/
Newbie,
Thought so.
For anyone who missed Obama's town hall meeting today:
The United States is insolvent, right here, right now, today, and The President announced it for all who cared to listen worldwide on national television.
contrarian -
You've said previously that you own t-bills. How do you square that? You are lending your money to an insolvent entity - generally a bad idea.
Robert,
It's like I said before:
Before the U.S. goes bankrupt, Congress will raise taxes to exorbitant rates - just as they did in the 1930's & 40's after the last depression.
Contrarian-
"The average wages of Americans have been falling (in real dollars) since 1970, making 1970 house-prices a reasonable point-in-time to look at as a possible, long-term equilibrium point for prices. That implies that U.S. house-prices will fall another 75% from current prices"
I am pretty sure they are doing the math wrong. They are saying that in real dollars wages are similar to what they were in the 1970s. They then say that in nominal dollars house prices need to fall 75% to equal 1970 prices. Why would nominal prices fall because real wages are flat. I agree that real house prices should be the same as in 1970, but based on the fact that inflation has been a little over 400% since 1970 it looks like housing prices are basically correct.
I do think prices will fall, but the authors arguments just mathematically irrelevant.
Contrarian, when you drink from the various doomaid wellsprings do you ever choose to read the whole article through?
For example, I read what your article linked to Jeff Nielsen. A few paragraphs after his choice doomsickle about what is going to happen to home prices, this guy goes on to say:
"I (and other commentators) have said for years that reckless U.S. money-printing by the Federal Reserve, and even more reckless fiscal policy from the U.S. government has made U.S. hyperinflation inevitable... John Williams, has already accelerated his own forecast for a U.S. “hyperinflationary depression” to as soon as this year. Avoid the hypnotic effect of the U.S. propaganda-machine – and act now, before it is too late."
Since you apparently endorse his view of what is going to happen, tell us what you are doing to prepare for the hyperinflation coming "as soon as this year"?
Anonymous,
Do you ever read anything I post, or are you simply too obsessed with attacking what I post?
John Williams has changed over time. I have been consistent. I have stated in the past that inflation will eventually occur, but deflation will play out first.
So, Anon...what is your point?
My point is, you are linking to an article that says hyperinflation is coming and coming soon.
Why do you choose to glug down the first part of what jeff nielsen says about housing prices, but ignore what he says about hyperinflation coming "as soon as this year".
Contrarian-
Have you looked at who paid the top tax bracket. Usually it was only people with the top .01% of income. The richest 1% have never had an average tax rate over 45%. Sure 45% is a lot higher than now, but the richest 1% make just under half a million/year so its still on very wealthy people.
Contrarian-
I agree many of the top 2% are not that wealthy. There is a very large difference though between the richest 1 and the richest 2%. Also as I said the brackets you showed were historically for the richest .01% of the population. These people are extremely wealthy.
"Virtually every article written includes opposing views."
Not from the same person. It would be one thing if the article was guy X spoke about home prices and guy Y spoke about hyperinflation. If that was the case, you could say X was an "authority" and Y was an idiot.
Here we have THE SAME guy saying something about home prices you readily lap up, and another thing about inflation you completely dismiss.
So is this guy an "authority" meaning his views on home prices AND inflation are correct?
Or is this guy an "idiot" meaning his views on home prices AND inflation are completely off base?
Take your pick.
Anyone want a model home?
model home
They claim this was a model home. Seeing that it was made in 1967 I don't really care so much that it was a model before I was born.
I'd like to see some hyperinflation as would anyone with a fixed rate mortgage. "Inflation is my friend".
i doubt we will see hyper inflation,
we see housing prices continuing to deflate and struggle.
China has a massive bubble and is likely to stop demanding as many resources aside frm oil.
oil may go up but gold and iron and cement will likely trend down.
you can't have hyperinflation when demand is rotten.
its why the market is so strong on 30 year bonds. 2% yiields look great.
pat,
I'm not thinking it's going to happen in the next few years. Look what happened after the last big recession (1981-82). Interest rates went thru the roof.
cheryl
volcker really crushed inflation which was mostly an energy shock
and high demand was driving wage inflation.
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