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Wednesday, September 15, 2010
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36 comments:
Fols
i asked yesterday about data sources on vacant dwelling units.
that would help answer the question of is there a foreclosure overhang in DC.
so i thought i would ask here.
is there an index of units without meters or with minimal consumption?
pat,
Look at this data.
Foreclosures are down, way down.
Unless you have some better logic, I would guess that empty units follow foreclosures.
If you're hoping for lower prices, then you should hope for job losses. Without significant job losses, I don't see another wave of foreclosures and lower prices.
Robert-
I agree they are way down from 2008 levels, but to me it looks like they have been trending up since January. In addition I am not sure that over the last 1-2 years vacancies and foreclosures track each other that well. There were many programs like Hamp that were created to stop/delay foreclosures. As these programs end I would not be surprised if foreclosures continue to trend upward. I don't think they will get anywhere near as high as 2008 levels, but I still think they will trend upward.
Also I am not sure that Fairfax County is that representative of DC. My guess is that Pat is looking for information on areas where he is looking including the areas near gallaudet. I could be wrong, but my guess is that these areas in DC were hit by the recession a lot harder than Fairfax was.
HB,
Well, there are always foreclosures, even in good times. The fact that banks are holding 800 homes in Fairfax County at the moment might not be that far off the long-term average.
Forgive me for being skeptical about another wave of foreclosures, but back in early 2009 it was theorized on this board that the imminent lifting of the self-imposed foreclosure moratorium by the banks would create a 'tsunami' of inventory. We all know what happened.
So, HAMP, eh.
Robert-
I agree with you that there will not be tsunami of foreclosures. I have never been in the camp of things are going to blow up. I also agree that there are always foreclosures. I can can not quickly find any data to say if current levels are high or low (I would guess high, but who knows)...
My main points were that it does look like foreclosures have been rising for the last 4-5 months. So although not high they are going the wrong way and that Fairfax is not representative of DC.
Either way I don't think a massive wave of foreclosures will bring housing down another 20-30%, but instead think housing will fall ~5-10% due to lack of buyers.
Semi-OT:
2010 SAT avg NOVA top ten (excl.TJ):
Langley 1812 (Fairfax)
George Mason 1795 (Falls Church City)
McLean 1778 (Fairfax)
Yorktown 1741 (Arlington)
Woodson 1738 (Fairfax)
Madison 1734 (Fairfax)
Oakton 1729 (Fairfax)
Marshall 1690 (Fairfax)
Washington-Lee 1670 (Arlington)
Robinson 1665 (Fairfax)
* TJ 2200 (magnet)
** MoCo
Whitman 1879
Churchill 1824
Wooton 1822
Poolesville 1813
Re the recent discussion on commuting, thought folks might enjoy this map. You can plug in a zipcode and find out where/how many folks commute to/from that zip:
http://hairycow.name/commute_map/map.html
More about the map:
http://hairycow.name/commute_map
MM-
Do you know if MoCo has a magnet school. The SAT scores of the schools you listed are really impressive. They are obviously more impressive if the county has a magnet school. If they do not have a magnet school the two counties are probably very comparable. My guess is ~10% of people in the good middle schools go to TJ. So you put these kids back to their base school these schools would have their scores increase by 10% of the difference between them and TJ ~40 points. So if you added ~40 points to the top schools in Va it would look like the schools in MoCo.
Either way I am impressed I didn't realize how good some schools in Maryland are.
housebuyer,
I believe Blair is the only magnet school in MoCo, but only about a quarter of the kids are magnet. The rest are regular students.
I think we should remember that SAT score means are influenced by the diversity of the student population.
Sat scores depend more on the intelligence of the student base, not the quality of the teaching per se.
Wealthy areas have a more intelligent population, thus more intelligent kids and higher scores across the board.
Wealthy, intelligent parents are involved with their kids education and have the resources (financial and otherwise) to ensure their children's educational needs are met.
Poorer areas will have many more marginal students.
The whole situation is reinforcing and self-perpetuating. That said, a smart, motivated student will excel in any school.
My concern would be that if there were alot of "needy" kids, the smart kids would not be challenged.
Even in the best schools, a good number of parents choose elite private schools.
Frankly, I can't believe how well today's kids score on these tests. I don't remember it being that way in the '70's.
Also, bear in mind that rich kids take prep classes that are out of reach for lower income students.
Poppy-
Thanks.
Ace-
Agreed, I am pretty sure your parents income is one of the best indicators for your SAT score. I don't really think the teachers have much of an impact on scores, so I mostly use SAT scores as a proxy for the chance your kid gets caught up with a bad crowd or stops caring about school work. Although obviously this isn't always true areas with high SAT scores tend to have less crime in schools, and fewer drop outs.
VA-
I think smart kids now score better than smart kids in the past partly because they changed the scoring. They tried to set up the new tests so scores are more spread out. So there are now more kids with very high or very low scores in the past more people had middle scores.
All-
Has anyone found a place to get monthly data from corelogic. The reports always show YoY changes. The DC area is still up YoY although the YoY change has been decreasing and if the current trend continues YoY will turn negative in our area in ~3 months.
hb,
We were concerned about the right/wrong crowd as well. This is where parental vigilence comes into play and is also why our kid was at Catholic School.
contrarian,
Let's say your prediction (I gather you agree with your sources) is true and home prices will decline for three years. How do you make the leap to complete economic collapse?
It was interesting to see Warren Buffet's take on the economy while reading the Cap One article the other day. Clearly, Fairbank(s?) is cautious - who isn't? - but Buffet is quite bullish.
Much depends on the timespan. I don't live my life based on 3 or 5 yr spans. If I worried about everything that could possibly go wrong (personally, locally, regionally, nationally, worldwide), I'd be paralized.
VA, lots of boomers just roll with it and are subsequently rewarded. Unlike your generation, ours is the one being robbed from rather than doing the robbing, and we're slightly more cynical.
Kevin,
I get it now. Everything was handed to the boomer's or fell in their laps and, on top of that, the boomer's have robbed your generation.
I'm not even going to comment.
WARNING!!! WARNING!!! WARNING!!!
The one year anniversary of this prophecy is fast approaching. Today the market is at 10,500 and contrarian says we will be below 6,500 in 15 days time.
__________________________________
"Contrarian said...
The Anonymous, are you naive enough to believe that at this time next year the market will not be lower than it was back in March (2009)?
9/30/09 11:33 AM"
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2009/09/northern-virginia-bits-bucket-9282009.html#comment-2463858820118826913
___________________________________
DONT BE "NAIVE" PEOPLE!!! SELL NOW BEFORE THE IMMINENT COLLAPSE!!!
Glug, glug, glug, glug, glug, glug, glug, glug, glug, glug, glug...
contrarian,
Munger (in the few sentences quoted) hardly said that economic collapse was coming. He said "the pain is not over" and that some things will remain lousy for a few years. I don't think anyone here expects a quick turn-around.
And, clearly, Buffet is not a short-term thinker.
contrarian,
Are Buffet, Balmer, and the rest liars or just plain stupid?
MM -
where do those SAT score statistics come from?
Thanks
Folks
I am interested in DC particularly near NE and Capital Hill.
however I do like the Arlington Area and Alexandria. If i can find a decent deal near the pike I would take it.
but, yeah, I drive around DC and i see units with no lights but also no for sale sign. I know in california there is a big disconnect between Default notices and foreclosure sales in the MLS
and one shouldn't take comfort in HAMP, about half of all HAMP modifcations have failed. HAMP has been nothing more then a foreclosure moratorium.
Re the SAT scores, etc:
1. The College Board released the results on 9/13 and the different school systems put out press releases with information about individual schools within the next day or so.
2. Montgomery County has two magnet programs - a math/science program at Blair and a selective IB program at Richard Montgomery. Neither is remotely as big as TJHSST. If TJ were closed and students were attending their base schools, the scores at Langley and McLean likely would be similar to those at Whitman and Churchill. Of course, students from outside Fairfax County also attend TJ, and FCPS still takes credit for these students' high scores when it releases information about the Fairfax schools.
3. The biggest trends in Fairfax over the past 15 years have been the increasing dominance of the McLean/Vienna schools in the top ranks (Langley, McLean and Madison have been among the top-ranking Fairfax schools for a long time, but that was not always the case at either Oakton or Marshall), and the relative slippage of the top Burke/Springfield schools (West Springfield, Lake Braddock and Robinson). The exception to this generalization is Woodson HS, which predictably shows up in the top five in Fairfax year after year.
I get it now. Everything was handed to the boomer's or fell in their laps and, on top of that, the boomer's have robbed your generation.
I'm not even going to comment.
But you just did. Heh.
Yeah well weren't you complaining recently that there was a plot or movement to burden/steal from your generation?
Contrarian, I know that I will never see a cent of social security that I'm paying for, I see our current national debt, and I have seen projections for our unfunded liabilities and transfer payments over the next decade. I'm not a victim, I am a witness of a massive transformation of wealth. Call it robbery, etc. Now boomers are pissy that they cannot sell their homes at peak value and buy that 50 foot yacht. I shed crocodile tears if that happens.
Contrarian -- whats the matter big guy? Why cant you mount more of a defense of your earlier statement?
Sadly for you, that chicken has come home to roost. 1 year ago, you were CERTAIN that by Sept 2010 the dow would be in shambles and we would all be here screaming in pain and agony in a full blown deflationary collapse saying "contrarian was right -- why oh why didnt we listen to him"... Didnt quite work out that way ehh contrarian?
Hey, just for fun, lets look again at what you said just last year:
__________________________________
"Contrarian said...
The Anonymous, are you naive enough to believe that at this time next year the market will not be lower than it was back in March (2009)?
9/30/09 11:33 AM"
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2009/09/northern-virginia-bits-bucket-9282009.html#comment-2463858820118826913
___________________________________
So Contrarian -- tell me -- tell us all -- who was being "naive" on what the Sept 2010 market would look like that fateful day in Sept 2009?
Cheryl
when i took the SAT the max score was 1600
now the max score is 2400
http://franklymls.com/DC7382340
sells for 267K assessed at 390K
SAT tests have changed over time, and scores have been re-centered, so a 500 on the verbal in 2009 doesn't mean the same thing as a 500 in prior years.
SAT changes
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