The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index for the month of June was released today.
"'The monthly Composites cover June and the national index covers the second quarter, when the government’s program for first time home-buyers was winding down. While the numbers are upbeat, other more recent data on home sales and mortgages point to fewer gains ahead,' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. 'Even with concerns about near term developments, we recognize that the housing market is in better shape than this time last year. Further, California’s cities have moved from some of the hardest hit to three of the four leading cities based on year-over-year gains. Among the other hard hit cities, the news is also a bit encouraging – Las Vegas, however, remains among the weaker cities. 'Seventeen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites saw home prices increase in June over May – Las Vegas was down 0.6%, Phoenix and Seattle were both flat. Through the second quarter, 15 of the 20 MSAs and both Composites have positive annual growth rates, and no market is registering a double digit decline. The worry starts when you remember that the Homebuyers’ Tax Credit has expired, foreclosures are still at high levels, and July data on home sales and starts were very, very weak. The inventory of unsold homes and months’ supply data were particularly troubling. If this relative weakness in demand continues, it will likely filter through to home prices in coming months.'"
1 comments:
I am now convinced that I'm right about the methodology for the 3 month "rolling average". It's a rolling average of all transactions. This is why April was able to jump up so abruptly when units sold spiked. It is also why we may now expect to see a more abrupt notch down when we get to June-July-August numbers two months from now (sigh) rather than seeing much of anything next month which will be weighted even more heavily to May and June than one would have thought.
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