Tuesday, August 10, 2010
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19 comments:
Hi Harriet,
Keeping a placeholder for when the MRIS puts up the July numbers?
Hmm, Cara, 1500 vs. 991?
Ace,
That's what I thought too, sales exceeding my wildest predictions, in fact sales exceeding the number of June pendings.... Oh wait, the MRIS doesn't have July up yet.... these are June.
Oops, I missed that too.
Now they're up (at the MRIS)
June FFX solds 1221, very close to the more optimisitic end of my prediction range 1204. So indeed more of the pendings closed than was the case from April's pendings.
(sales down 22% MoM)
median $439k! (up from $425k last month, $390k last year) Yikes, gotta be the mix away from the low-end $8k sales, one hopes.
July pendings down from June (1533)but not too terrible at 1340.
the solds to listing ratio still seems bad.
what's odd is the price rising despite a high ratio.
usually prices don't rise unless the ratio is below 1.2
usually prices don't rise unless the ratio is below 1.2
Unless there was some sort of temporal anomaly that is rushing people to get a contract/deal.
I'm liking the trend for a number of reasons, but time will tell whether we stay in the black.
I don't agree that it is mainly due to mix. The lowest tier has rebounded considerably from, what I consider, a huge over-correction.
pat,
FFX only:
MOI 4.6
pendings/new listings
1340/1907 = 0.7
It's not clear to me that the rising median truly indicates rising prices. The NVAR detailed reports are up, and I would say that Va_investor is correct for condos, in that for condos the shift in "mix" looks more like and overall shift upwards in price. Whereas in SF-attached and SF-homes there's some wierder dynamics going on, under a certain threshold sales have all but dissapeared, and the high-end market has loosened back up again. (i.e. a mix in which price ranges are selling at what pace). But things weren't firm in the middle like they look in condos.
Again the one area that I see signs of weakness is around the 400-499 mark in SF-attached and particularly SFHs. In both those distributions, sales are way down YoY, as much as37%, but active listings are way up, 30% or more.
Did equivalent houses sell for more this July than last July? Judging purely from my neighborhood, yes. By about 5% in our case. Is it sustainable???? In condos and the under $300k market, possibly, I defer to VA_investor there. In my neighborhood, I'm withholding judgement until I see what happens with the current 3 flippers (very nicely done, very ambitiously priced) 1 real owner that's sort of half way remodeled but has nice additions, and one good condition but not remodeled home. If the remodeled ones all sell for anything close to current asking, then I'll stop holding my breathe. But I have a really hard time imagining that happening.
Or looking at it another way the condo sales are down -30%, SF-attached down -23%, SFHs down -14%. (all FFX, all YoY). Seems like a pretty clear change in mix to me.
Which is not to say there hasn't also been an increase in price. I just don't think it's close to the 12.7% YoY change in the median. Between 3% and 5% I'd believe though and higher in some products.
cara,
I've seen many of those condo's and TH's up 20-50+% from the bottom (SFD in certain areas). Granted I only follow certain Markets and mainly low-tier, but anyone trying to buy low-end is in a bidding war at the developments I follow.
Many of the lower-end were/are purchased by cash investor's to whom the 8K was irrelevant. I always contended that investor's would put in a bottom in that tier and they did.
Va,
I'd believe it. (well, 20% easily, 50% I'd like to see an example and one that isn't apples and oranges in terms of condition). Last July was well past the bottom though, I think you'd agree. Or maybe I'm wrong, maybe there will still a handful of bottom level deals then, but that's not how I remember last summer... lets just say they were already fewer and further between.
cara,
I'm basically talking reo to reo, not flips. Four Seasons and Reflection Lake in Herndon, Rolling Ridge and Providence Village in Sterling (plus many SFD's in Sterling). South and North Reston lower-end TH's and condo's (Chestnut Grove condo's and I can't remember the TH's in S.Reston, Shadow wood condo's, etc.).
I have specific examples that I have been involved with that I would rather not discuss. Some shorts are coming back on at large increases and this is visible to anyone with alerts in those nabes.
I agree with you that some flips are not comparable, but I have, myself, spent only 3k for an increase of 115K purchase to 197K sale.
Thanks Va,
The best I can find quickly is:
FX* Reflection Lake bank 3bdr sold2009 which has a few 3 bdrms in the $140k range that were in the 104-110k range last June (and at their low-point then). So a 36% increase.
(the higher priced bank owneds were also updated, from the glances I took).
Given that I only looked at one of your many examples, I'm guessing somewhere in there, there probably is a 50% REO to REO increase. Even my neighborhood of SFHs has had a 16% REO to REO increase.
file under WTF?
http://franklymls.com/DC7401647
assessed at 413K, lists for 219K
someone buys it for 265K.
it's a beautiful shell, but i figure
it needs 80K in work to complete.
cara,
I'm going off the bottom (2008+). I put an offer in at Reflection Lake on a 100K reo that was in pretty good condition. I didn't get my offer in in time and don't know what it went for. I'm pretty darn sure it would be well over 150K now (same condition).
At the bottom, TH's in Four Season's were going in the 80's. Those are up more than 50%.
of course if you believe there is
a second wave coming, then it's
a whole nother deal.
the whole market is so intervened it's hard to know if we have market clearing and i'm interested in DC which is the screwiest market,
Bummer...defense cuts.
I was watching the major staffing companies this morning and they weren't doing that poorly, but they have turned sharply lower this afternoon.
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