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Tuesday, August 3, 2010
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14 comments:
OK, this thread looks lonely, so I'll start.
I think this is a pretty good deal for the size and condition (as Arl. goes, anyway), even though the agent stretched just a tad to say the house is "near" the metro:
Kentucky St
Ace-
I agree. It may have lower comps, because although 66 isn't much of an issue for it, houses a block away are surely impacted by their proximity to 66.
Good point, and this house is bigger and more nicely updated than most nearby, I would think, which would also affect availability of true comps. -- the appraisers have to make judgments about how to value features that are different with those of the recent sold houses.
Notice, though, how much the neighborhood values have dropped (per Arl.) (for those who doubt that any part of N. Arl. has come down from the peak). At the same time, Zillow's estimate was far below the selling price.
Ace,
I haven't been paying too much attention so maybe I'm way off, but that strikes me as a rather high price for a home in that neighborhood. Granted I've been more apt to see the 2/1, 2/2s, and 3/2s pop up in my Frankly queries but they are no where near that high. Most of those in 22205 are brick and showing up at $599k max.
My $0.02
Mytwocents,
That's good to know. I am sure that being surrounded by smaller homes that may not be as nice may have affected the selling price of this house as well.
Houses that are updated and >2300 square feet go for much more than that in many other parts of N. Arlington.
Cara
I think we are on the same page.
The people who are deeply underwater will default at some point or other.
The lag is running longer here
and certainly cheap money is just making it easier to dog things out.
for people on ARMs the cost of an ARM is below rent, so they are going to stay that way.
if they can afford it keep paying, because it's cheaper then any change in status.
but it's worse the farther out you go and the longer the lag.
if you are 200K underwater, why redo the kitchen?
if you are 200K underwater why upgrade the siding?
if you are 200K underwater, why
replace the furnaces?
let it ride and figure out
what else to do until it ends.
so we have a large pile of slowly deteriorating property
and people doing anything other then
fixing their problems.
Welcome to Tokyo.
Everyone in Tokyo is hoping a richter 8 Quake will hit in city limits.
if it destroys your condo, the insurance pays off and you are out.
maybe Godzilla can show up, stomp a big part of virginia and save everyone.
heck maybe godzilla can show up on wall street, stomp Goldman and a few other big firms and save us all.
Pat-
I think a lot of people who are mildly underwater are continuing to update their houses because as you said its a status symbol. Also don't seeing that most of the people that we are talking about are 0-20% underwater a with ~5 years of flat prices they are back above water, because they are paying off their loan.
I agree prices will likely go down further, but for people who don't think they will fall (most underwater people) a few more years of mortgage payments will bring them back to level.
The savings rate has also been increasing dramatically, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the additional savings was being used to pay down loans
FWIW: http://washington.bizjournals.com/washington/stories/2010/08/02/daily15.html?t=printable
Home prices at 'justifiable levels'Washington Business Journal - by Jeff Clabaugh
Pending sales of existing homes fell in June, though they rose in the region that includes the Washington area, and the National Association of Realtors expects sales to pick up nationally later this year.
The NAR's monthly report on pending sales, or those with signed contracts but not settled sales, shows they fell 2.6 percent from May to June. Pending sales nationally were down 18.6 percent from a year ago.
In the South, which stretches from Delaware to Florida, pending home sales rose 13.6 percent from the previous month, the largest month-over-month increase regionally. Pending sales in the South remained 15.3 percent below year-ago levels.
"There could be a couple more months of slow sales activity before picking up later this year, provided the job market continues to improve," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Since home prices have come down to fundamentally justifiable levels, there isn't likely to be any meaningful change to national home values."
Yun notes some local markets continue to show strengthening prices.
Recent reports on housing prices have continued to show the Washington area's is among the strongest in the nation
"Yun notes some local markets continue to show strengthening prices."
Who gives a fuck what Yun says? The guy is a paid propagandist. Baghdad Yun. A joke.
Quoting him is like a child going to the mall in December and telling their parents what Santa told them. Only difference is that Santa wasn't trying to lie, Yun is.
Not that I'm a fan of Glen Beck (or not a fan, never watched those types of shows) - but I did a quick google search to try to point out why to never listen to the NAR press releases and his video came up first.
video
"Kevin said...Who gives a fuck what Yun says?"
Tough day Kev ;)
HB
mildly underwater, sure that fixes itself if you don't have an IO or neg-am.
but for those who have IOs, well they have to be able to afford the amortizing payments.
The Fed is holding rates low but at some point it all falls apart.
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