Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
6451 Shady Lane, Falls Church 22042Anyone looking in FC should check this out. Obviously, work is required. The price looks good. It's unclear from the pictures how much $$$ it would take to make it livable until other upgrades can be completed over whatever timespan someone's budget or desires require.It's not your average "turn-key" remodel, but money can be made when one is willing to take on a fixer.
What kind of animal would you have for a neighbor if you bought this house?And why would the listing agent tout a big new kitchen but not include a photo of it?mystery house
Raising eyebrows mode engaged:“I am not going to be a slave to the bank,” said Shawn Schlegel, a real estate agent who is in default on a $94,873 home equity loan. His lender obtained a court order garnishing his wages, but that was 18 months ago. Mr. Schlegel, 38, has not heard from the lender since. “The case is sitting stagnant,” he said. “Maybe it will just go away.” Link to NTY ArticleThat would be a catchy slogan to put on the eviction notice: "I am not going to be a slave to the bank."
Ace,I'm not following the "animal" reference. The house looks nice to me. Is it overpriced? Did I miss some defect?Myself, I'd take the fixer in FC and put about 80K into it (I haven't seen it, but expect it wouldn't cost more than this). Hillwood is a nice neighborhood and very close to the hallowed N. Arl.
Blogger Ace said... What kind of animal would you have for a neighbor if you bought this house?LOL... I was about to say "Man, that's one big GOAT!".But on second look its a German Shepard. A big 'un none the less.
TN,If they sell that judgment to a collection agency, I suspect he will be hearing something.
Va,The backyard photo. The "animal" appears to be as tall as the fence. If you look quick it does look like a farm animal. A close look reveals it to be a very big dog.
Va,I think she means the neighbor's full-sized schnauzer (spell) in tha pic of the backyard. I'd call that simply truth in advertizing...TN,Yeah, saw that... some people...
Hi, my name is Bill Poole, I am here to deliver your heart attack:The only sure way to prevent that outcome is to phase out Fannie and Freddie.Say Goodbye to Fannie and FreddieWas that me or did the seismic meter for RE just record a big tic?;-)
cara,TN,AceWe've got someone a few doors away with a german shepard. A nice tall fence would end that problem.
that animal picture might be a mistake. the lot is .10 acre and houses on either side don't appear to have a big yard, plus the back of that house in the picture doesn't resemble either house.
MM, the mystery deepens!I thought the animal was a goat too.
The Anonymous said..."-- Our median Arlington buyer holding out for better deals might as well go ahead and kill himself now. Believing "no place is immune" applies to Arlington has thus far proven to be a terrible terrible mistake."but then i looked at these sales and decided to live a big longer.8/9/2010 $770,0005/19/2006 $799,0008/6/2010 $860,00011/17/2006 $1,130,000 8/2/2010 $431,0006/23/2006 $450,0007/30/2010 394,00010/27/2006 $538,400 7/30/2010 $793,0004/26/2005 $819,365 7/29/2010 $619,00012/14/2007 $625,0007/28/2010 $810,0005/12/2008 $865,000 7/22/2010 $740,0008/28/2006 $770,0007/22/2010 $585,0007/20/2006 $610,000 7/9/2010 $585,0005/27/2008 $611,100 though those who's been waiting since '02/'03 please go right ahead.
That's an impressive compilation MM.
MM,Only two of those are noteworthy. The history of the two with meaningful drops may be worthy of a look.
cara,just grinding it out...here's a list of SFHs that either are priced below last sold a few years ago, or IMHO will have a hard time selling above.in no particular order:List Price: $764,0002010 (4/1!!!) sold price: $768,000List Price: $626,0002007 sold price: $645,000List Price: $624,9002006 sold price: $610,000List Price: $739,0002004 sold price: $701,000List Price: $585,0002007 sold price: $587,000List Price: $559,900 (REO)2005 sold price: $560,000List Price: $874,9002004 sold price: $840,000List Price: $1,230,0002005 sold price: $1,180,000List Price: $1,597,0002008 sold price: $1,550,000
MM,It seems that there is nothing very remarkable except for the two new condo's bought at peak. One looks like an reo. I can't tell on the higher priced one.The others are staying close enough to peak to suggest only a minor drop - clearly not the 50% seen in some outer suburbs.
carai'm using harriets postingssales to listings looks to be 4:1 in the close burbs.now pendings i'm doing more by feel but thee are data sources too
Va, MM,I think all MM is trying to do is disprove the contention by the Anonymous that patient buyers should be disheartedned by the increase in median. So for that, flatness is all that is required, just showing that patient buyers are no worse off. (and probably have a much larger downpayment fund in the mean time).Pat, Thanks for clarifying. Those are totals over the course of the month, as opposed to new listings posted in the month or current actives. (despite the fact that the MRIS calls them "actives" what they mean is any listing that was available at some point in the month) Sorry to rehash old ground that I'm sure you remember just as well as I, I'm mostly remninding myself by looking it up again...
MM, as I noted, I am talking about the median buyer. Sure there are some diamonds in the rough out there, and im sure there are dozens, perhaps hundreds of people out there who are glad they have waited. Such is not the case with the "median" buyer. Under the "no place is immune" mantra, it was assumed that we would see widespread and significant declines across the board. Furthermore, had you posted that list back in 06, and said this is prices would be in 2010, there were some here that would say you were delusional and there is NO way prices could hold up that much (remember, no place is immune). If you always had moderate expectations, (and you are not our "median" buyer), perhaps you are happy with this. But if you were expecting to see widespread, significant declines across the board, this is a disappointment beyond words.
Saved without comment -- other than glug, glug, glug..."contrarian said...O-bozo is doing everything he can to prop up a too expensive housing market, but eventually it is going to come crashing down.The stock market is going to crash. Many banks will go bell-up. And, housing will implode. Credit will collapse, and deflation will accelerate. We are in a depression worse than the 1930s.The dot.com bubble crashed, the housing bubble popped five years ago and is being propped up with gov't subsidies, but they can't stop the collapse already in motion. They can only slow it down.Salaries here in the U.S. are going to drop to compete with China and India. The baby boomers are going to retire. Many cities, counties and states will not be able to pay retirement benefits. Bell, California is the most recent example. Hundreds, if not thousands more, will follow suit over the next several years.Housing prices will crash for many more years. No matter what O-bozo does, he can only delay the collapse, but not stop it.Anyone who thinks the bottom is in and prices are headed up is completely detached from reality.8/12/10 4:19 PM"
cara,Absent a much larger sample size it is very hard to say the market was flat, let alone declining.I agree that some places did drop. I'm sure this is true in every single neighborhood/area that we examine. The question is: on the whole, what happened?I would expect every area to have declined, but that doesn't seem to be the case. 5% or less is not meaningful imo.I'm not putting down MM's time and effort.
Anonymous,Who is this "median" buyer? Whose house choice fluctuates based on what everyone else is doing? Who during the $8k bribe, when way more lower priced listings were selling than otherwise would wanted a condo but now that those have slowed wants a SFH?There's such a thing as the median sale. But it's a mathematical quantity not a fixed person. MM is giving you comps. Straight comps. Which reflect if you were someone who was looking for X in a house, how much would you have to pay? People with the patience to wait for 4 years, wait because they like surety, want to avoid risk. If those people don't have to pay anymore now than they would have in 2006 when they would have had great difficulty sleeping well at night, and might only now be breathing a cautious sigh of relief, then, well, wasn't waiting worth it?You must have some idea in your head of who you mean when you say "median buyer" but you haven't expressed it here. As MM pointed out, waiting since 2003 was a bad bet. But waiting since 2006 when everything started to crash and no one really knew what would play out? Seems like a nice peaceful course for the risk-averse.
VA_Investor, as several of us have posted at various times, there is plenty of evidence, based on the entire population of sales in Arlington, that prices have declined. It varies from neighborhood to neighborhood--some have declined next to nothing, others 5%-10%, others a bit more than that. Look at assessed values, look at sales by neighborhood, etc. In Arlington, during any period you are considering, there are at least some real increases in value due to upgrades of existing homes, which are more common than in outer burbs, due to the older housing stock and the relatively high incomes of the homeowners (ability to pay for expensive upgrades), plus some teardowns-to-McMansions. So if you factor that in, you could argue that the true decline is somewhat higher. Another factor that makes it hard to pin down, is one that's played a role everywhere--the tax credit combined with record low mortgage rates. This has pushed sales and sales prices somewhat higher, making it look as though prices haven't dropped as much. So maybe we've hit bottom in Arl., but maybe we haven't. My point is that we don't have to rely exclusively on anecdotes, though the ones MM reported are very interesting. The full data have been reported, though it's hard to interpret them given the above, and given that the mix changes periodically. The data do show some decline, but obviously nowhere nearly as great as the decline in the areas where there were bigger bubble increases, many more questionable loans and later foreclosures, and more stressed sales.
cara,I was very concerned starting in 2003 and getting skittish. Clearly by the summer of 2005, everyone could watch the inventory numbers (coupled with all the bubble talk) and must have had blindsider's on to go forward with a purchase.We saw the smack-down start to occur in the low end and in new subdivisions in the ex-urbs. I found it rational to correlate defaults to turnover during peak years.Demographics also played a part. Move-up money for down-payments and high incomes to support house payments. Perhaps older buyers with more job security.Actually, if you sold at peak to move-up at peak it was somewhat of a wash.When one looks to an area like N. Arlington you see two types of owners - long timer's and the newer well-heeled destination owner's. Neither is likely to default.It made simple sense to me that PWC and Loudoun (and West Virginia new builds) would take the brunt as would low-end areas of FX County.People were on boards claiming 40% declines EVERYWHERE and that it was moving inward (the concentric circle theory). For the above reasons, I did not think this would happen. I figured a drop in Arl. of 10-15%. But it was an educated guess - not the absolutes stated by others.
"Cara said...You must have some idea in your head of who you mean when you say "median buyer" but you haven't expressed it here." Maybe its just more of a rant on my part Cara. The thought back in the day was that ALL of us would see some substantial declines, not just a smattering here or there (again no place was immune).
"VA investor said...People were on boards claiming 40% declines EVERYWHERE and that it was moving inward (the concentric circle theory)." Yep -- heres just one of many such sentiments back in the day"Cracks in the Clarendon area's facade......I think we'll continue to see the cracks spread and deepen. Prices even in close-in, highly desirable areas are starting to soften. This will pick up speed as we head into summer/fall.Generally speaking, the houses for sale in Clarendon are significantly overpriced and have a long way to fall before reaching a bottom. The typical $800k house will sell for $500k by the time the dust settles.4/24/08 11:43 AM"Notice how it wasnt just that "some" places will see firesales... it was that the "typical" 800K house would sell for 500K when the dust settles (a drop of 37.5% by the way). The doomers just kept doling it out, and we just kept lapping it up...https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=4787878578920468587&postID=5577309373141484060&page=1&token=1281732728615_AIe9_BFGgRtT1m2cDQVhOEpJIHpAMSnv7B3PfBp3SxxfwiZnG6Iy8kKU8y-s_b-0SpltZjWKOrhp1Q35gBUruroBmqwPaYWg-StKbcP78FyZRbuC7HmB05Cugah609cGXuIlwS3OgLVdpi6Ake96wy9CCSNDhlZzyrS8QPMePDsUquTaflPgfme8qokeANoVw8MQoAew-P3NXm04AI5smCdUhUx_y5tEaNER18h5HjELWt0Eg5ELH4TbH2IZXSly9dOhYCnsZhJiygUCDs26DqGw87ml2OEXV17W8mCOFEsdj7IytL7lUXhNsvEBHmuBNCTGUhSUSYTwCy7nrVD2CSUtqt518OU4OlLD6OZw5v3FmeClRhXKZ87MPnVCq6KkhP9mLDCMUDvWjn9WGL_wAiw-fjDwMVyyGGGq5bNNMT3ylB-vTAhFr7-OPvtq6rWBj2vCD3sXfFIHSpa3n4CWO747pUtXnJA9KQBOPhZ4ImhQ7sfa7LfJDR5MuC7TdU_vIlFCBQ4-lYRxKkUyHmHiOZscuf2rqXCj6Qf6DICA3rQjKPiySPLLTLmsy7K4qlObr8xKnQXN_3ar3hY3ep9whIpfhxk4LLuQywuPIL3D6NlGNnFkPUdFVSC0yLczBLr5WBXSBmkoo6AFemGLRzFyateTwC1AqoZkVwIWrvSvlR4SWIk5SDbcsD4SID9x0b
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