Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
Yes, we’ve resorted to just giving ppl money, basically. No doubt the $50K “loans” will be secured the very home that is underwater. No worries, though, because I’m sure the “unemployed” are good for the money. Obama Administration to Provide $3 Billion in Housing Aid POLITICS, GOVERNMENT, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, HOUSING AID,The Associated Press | 11 Aug 2010 | 11:45 AM ET The Obama administration is providing $3 billion to unemployed homeowners facing foreclosure in the nation's toughest job markets. The Treasury Department says it will send $2 billion to 17 states that have unemployment rates higher than the national average for a year. They will use the money for programs to aid unemployed homeowners. Some of those states have already designed such programs. Another $1 billion will go to a new program being run by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. It will provide homeowners with emergency zero-interest rate loans of up to $50,000 for up to two years. The administration was required to launch the programs by the financial regulatory bill signed by President Barack Obama last month.
"contrarian said...When the next tsunami of foreclosures begins (in the next few months, along with a collapse in the stock market), it would not surprise me to see bank holidays (closures) lasting for long periods of time.4/1/10 3:42 PM"
Hmm -- a troll and a bully yes, but a predator, no...Seriously though, whats the problem? All I am doing is repeating what you said earlier verbatim.Are you just upset that I saved that comment before you had a chance to delete it?
"contrarian said...Upset? Why?"Because you deleted that statement, along with everything else you post. If the only harm is me bringing them up, there is no reason to delete them is there?If they are all going to come true, just like how you said they were, and when you said they were, there is no reason to delete them is there?
So you guys are going to ruin this blog too? Great.
"Contrarian said...I removed my remarks in an attempt to put a stop to your harassment. Obviously, you missed the clue."Yep. Its a shame that backfired on you. I used to give you only 1/2 as much grief before you engaged in the Great Deletion Campaign of 2009.Either way, you had to know this was coming. You have been making completely assinine predictions for years now, and now that they are failing, its time to pay the piper. Too bad you just couldnt have kept up the posts, and admitted "I was wrong" as they failed one by one by one. You notice how I dont continue to give Robert a hard time about his failed Case Shiller predictions about how we would be in a v shaped recovery by now? Imagine how much further along we would be if you had just followed his lead.
Catherine, I do apologize. I see trolls predicting how we are going to have "the end of the world" by XYZ time and it just gets to me. They scare the crap out of people, and then when XYZ arrives and nothing happens, they are never held accountable for their failed tales of doom and gloom.Sure, people will eventually realize the permabears (and permabulls) are full of crap, but by then, they have attracted a new crop of newbies to scare half to death -- thus the cycle completes.It is for this reason that I take every opportunity I can to give Contrarian a hard time. He will never again fool anyone into thinking he has even a respectable track record when it comes to predicting the gloom and doom that he spews. If my reputation suffers because of it, so be it.Its funny becaus in real life, im about as nice a person as one can be. It is only here on the wide open spaces of the bubble blogs that I get like this. Its conceivable that you (or someone else here) knows me in real life, knows me to be a very likeable person, and would be shocked at my online persona. Again, I apologize. If this bothers you I suggest you do what everyone else does and ignore the back and forth between Contrarian & myself. Very rarely does anything constructive come out of our exchanges -- but they are good for a laugh!
folkswhat i think indicates the housing market needs to go lower is driven by the lists/sales ratio.a healthy market is basically(Sales/pendings/Lists) of1:1.1:1.2figure not every pending closes, andthere are some people who hang out a listing just to test the market.You can debate the exact co-efficinets, but that's my take.anything less and you get price wars, anything more and you get downward pricing pressure.look what we have 1:1.5:4lots of pendings aren't closingand there are all sorts of listinghanging out that won't get offers.when there are an excess of listings, the agents won't work the closes.
so look, i'm a bear, but it's based upon certain reasoning.
"You're must be so psychotically delusional, I guess it hasn't quite set in yet that both, the stock market and housing market, are lower today than they were in 2007, huh?"...and yet still an order of magnitude higher than you were predicting...
pat,Where in particular do you get 1:1.5:4?I watched new listings to pendings like a hawk last summer, and back then they were fairly even 1 to 1 ish, which was part of why I didn't feel it would go any lower anytime soon back then. (which given the 8k was still out there shouldn't have been a surprise, but I so strongly felt prices were too high that it was news to me). Now I, likewise, see new listings still near 1900, pendings only at 1400, sales only around 1200, which does indeed indicate pressure IMO, but it's not as bad as the ratios you're quoting. But that's just FFX Cnty. Where are yours?Thx.Oh... I guess you may mean "listings" which could be total or actives. If so, I slightly disagree with your methodology, because the point is what is the flux in and out of the market. I know MOI is what is always used (but in that case, sales to listings being 4 isn't high...), but I think my measure comparing transactions leaving the market and new listings entering the market is a better measure of stress at a pinpoint in time.
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