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Saturday, July 24, 2010
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11 comments:
is it possible to get from PEPCOm and Dominion the number of residential units without active power accounts?
that would seem the best way to
validate what hadow inventory is out there.
Article
For the Washington region, surrendering some of its disproportionate share of employment growth might mean gaining a few ticks on its jobless rate and losing some of the millions in taxpayer dollars flowing through its housing market. It might also mean fewer new subdivisions in the exurbs, fewer glass office cubes on the Dulles Corridor, and fewer SUVs with tinted windows jamming the Beltway.
Contrarian,
So we have alot of jumbo's. Where are they on the chart of defaults? I'd like to see the numbers before coming to any conclusions.
Robert,
Fat chance.
Contrarian-
Option ARMs will not blow up list most people are predicting. First something like 50-60% of option arms defaulted before they reset, so it doesn't matter that they were projected to reset soon, since the loan is already delinquent. Many if not most of the loans that have not defaulted had reasonable LTVs to start with and they people have refinanced out of their option ARMs into loans with lower interest payments. So although there will definitely be an uptick in options arm defaults by no means will it be the wave that everyone is predicting. Ohh yeah banks will probably just continue selling houses at the same rate so it will just increase the shadow inventory that will be liquidated over the next 5 years. Yes housing prices will come down. No they will not fall like they did in 06-08.
contrarian,
People on the ground in both Seattle and Orange County say the numbers in that report are way off. Yes, properties are lingering in various stages of the shadow inventory, but in terms of homes that have actually been repossessed by the bank, those seem to be coming to market in some reasonable amount of time, with no dicotomy at the $300k mark.
And that's from two of the biggest bubble pumpers out there, irvine renter and Tim at the Seattle Bubble.
Cara-
I haven't seen any dichotomy at 300k either when looking at MBS. Although the average house is taking ~2 years from when it becomes delinquent to when it is getting sold (either foreclosure or REO) so I am not sure I would call this timely. Although banks being slow is nothing new.
hb,
The overall pipeline is extremely long, yes. However the claim in contrarian's link was that the time from foreclosure auction to MLS listing was long or even infinite, and that is not the case. Once the decision has been made and action has been taken such that the bank has possession of the home, most properties do make it to market in a timely fashion.
Cara-
I agree. The article's math points just do not agree with the reality people are seeing. Sorry if misunderstood, I was just trying to clarify so no one was confused into thinking that the pipeline is quick.
Saved w/o further comment
contrarian said...
According to "Amortization Types," prime jumbo loans "were primarily ... 'Option ARM' mortgages."
This chart from Business Week shows Option ARMS begin increasing this month and continue for about eighteen months.
This chart also shows Option Arms starting to kick it up a notch, and continuing for eighteen months or so.
Combine that with the Bamboozler-in-Chief's tax scheme disguised as ObamaCare. Your income will be going to taxes instead of investments (real estate). To support this, the administration's most recent propaganda, suggests renting rather than owning a home.
Plus, add the Baby Boomer retirements and home prices are going to fall far and for a long time.
7/26/10 1:06 AM
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