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Saturday, July 3, 2010
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11 comments:
So, this short sale in Arlington went from pending to active yesterday, and there's an open house today.
http://franklymls.com/AR7252663
No mention on the listing of bank-approved price, so is this just a low-ball price designed to solicit a bunch of higher-priced offers?
list was200 now 290.
at 200 it's a steal, at 250 its a deal beyond that it's BS
Home Prices Could Fall Another 50%
Thanks for the link, Spider.
I'm wondering how another 50% down would work in the D.C. area, though. I would not be surprised at anything in the long term, of course.
I guess in the near term I'm not quite seeing it, in part because I'm observing that the rental market is holding up quite well, at least out my way.
The Guy can't even do math. He says going from 150 to100 is 50%. I generally don't trust investment advice from people who can not even decide.
hb,
i think this forecast is funny, but in terms of arithmetics, i would not criticize him to harshly for it. i always check any document i write for such errors, but when you talk too fast you sometimes forget to check your math.
i can imagine how fast you are usually typing your posts given the phonetic spelling you often employ.
Konstantin-
I think there is a big difference between posting something on a blog as an anonymous poster and talking to a news source as a money manager. If you want I can switch my complaint to the fact it is crazy to say that since stocks are at the same price they were a little over 10 years ago houses should be there too. In 2000 stocks were trading at their highest P/E ever, while housing was fairly valued. So stocks are only there because they were too expensive. Housing should have moved with inflation. If he wanted to argue housing should have increased with inflation (CS=130) instead of being at 150 I would agree, but his arguments are just crazy.
newbie:
The agent on the Arlington SS has closed 3 properties as a listing agent in the last year. All three were shorts. She doesn't do much business but at least she is 3 for 3 in short sales in the last 365 days. She has no expireds or withdrawns, which is a good sign.
Harriet,
Agreed. The forecast is quite extreme and relation to NoVA is even more of a stretch.
I still believe housing here is around 25% overvalued - given where it was in late 90s - and taking into account wage growth and inflation.
Time will tell where we end up.
hb,
i agree that he is crazy, but it's not his maths that makes him look silly. it is a lukewarm attempt to sound different.
I completely agree with the above comment, the internet is with a doubt growing into the most important medium of communication across the globe and its due to sites like this that ideas are spreading so quickly.
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