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Friday, July 23, 2010
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9 comments:
My May C-S prediction:
At a minimum last year's peak of 180.71 will be exceeded, which would only take a 0.7% increase over last month, MoM.
But what I really think it will be is 184+/-1, a similar or slightly larger MoM increase than last month.
I think this will be a false reading, and actually reflect that C-S can't capture "move-in ready" adequately. I.e. I think the houses that went under contract in April were preferentially those closer to tip top shape, because they were more likely to be bought by people who were a bit cash-strapped.
Likewise some of the fall starting in June or July's numbers will also not reflect how far your money really goes.
Cara-
I agree with your reasons for why the numbers aren't really reliable. I also assume a lot of flippers were smart enough to get their upgraded properties on the market in time for the buyer to also get the credit. If they use the same methodology as last month I agree the number would likely be ~184, but there is some risk the Shiller will realize that he is not accounting for changes in mix correctly and try and adjust for this.
FWIW, I have been getting a lot of two types of alerts from frankly.mls (for Arl. detached $800-$1.5):
1) solds
2) price drops
and very few new listings.
Ace-
Do you think that it is related to people not wanting to list their house in July because it doesn't give much time to have someone buy it during the summer. I would think that people with $1MM houses usually can sell their houses at their discretion rather than needing to sell immediately.
If not do you have any other ideas why people don't want to list now
HB,
Who knows? I think it could be due to several things:
--there is usually a slow down this time of year; people go on vacation, etc.
--some demand and supply were pulled forward as part of the overall frenzy earlier this year
--it's so hot no one wants to do anything, such as all the hard work of getting a house and yard ready for sale.
--employers aren't hiring and transferring (with house selling help) as many people as they once were
The many price drops may reflect sellers' realization that demand may not increase in the coming months, rates can hardly get lower, etc., so if they didn't get offers this spring at "their price", you aren't going to get them now.
I wish we could easily search frankly to see which houses were pulled off without a sale.
So there may be a mix favoring this range for the next few C-S rounds, but then, maybe not.
I also think that there are still a lot of jitters about the economy. If you don't have to move, maybe it's more comforting to stay put, wait and see, etc. Stock market still is down substantially from the peak, and volatile, so many people still may not feel that they have the $ to trade-up.
Ace-
Good points about not wanting prepare the house and do yard work in this heat. I also agree about the stock market and volatility. I am sure in this price range people who are trading up probably put a lot of money down with a good amount coming from the stock market. Maybe you will see some good sized drops in houses you like :)
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